Twins GM = Ridiculously Stupid

[carolinacubbie]

Twins general manager Bill Smith, on Livan Hernandez, who improved to 10-6 with a 5.29 earned-run average with Saturday's victory over Texas: "I'll take the (10) wins. Who do you want, a guy who's 10-15 with a 2.80 ERA or a guy who's 16-8 with a 7.00 ERA? I'll take the 16-8."

 

Well just to play devil's advocate here, I would rather have the 16-8 guy then the 10-15 guy. The 10-15 guy is clearly the better pitcher though, but I mean winning is everything. And in the long run, the 10-15 guy would be better, but for one year I'd rather have the 16-8 guy regardless what his ERA is.

 

The 16-8 guys is a product of good run support, and vice verse for the 10-15 guy.

 

If I'm in the playoffs, regardless of how much run support a pitcher gets in the regular season, I want the good pitcher going in October. If the Cubs made the playoffs and at the end of the year these numbers were there hypothetically...

 

Carlos Zambrano

12-16 3.05ERA 1.22WHIP

 

vs.

 

Ted Lilly

16-10 3.86ERA 1.38WHIP

 

Who do you take if you had to leave one of them off the roster?

 

 

I was basically just joking around when I made that post, obviously I know the guy with the 3 run less difference in ERA is better. I was just saying in the grand scheme of things, for one regular season you would rather have a 16-8 than a guy 10-15 regardless of ERAs. I realize run support has everything to do with wins, but maybe, just maybe certain players like playing behind certain pitchers rather than others, and they actually try harder. Doubt this applies to many players, but I bet it does to some.

[Clem Fandango]

He's not stupid. He's just covering his ass.

No, he is. He got Carlos Gomez and peanuts for Johan Santana, and Gomez isn't even that good. I'd be surprised if Gomez ever became a >.800 OPS guy, although he does have great defense and pretty good speed. (But he's not that good of a basestealer)

 

Imagine how good the Twins would be with both Liriano and Santana? They'd probably lead the Central by 8 games.

 

The thing is, before they traded him they did have that going for the in 2008, and he chose to trade him anyways. And for next to nothing at that. If anything hang on to him and trade him at the deadline for a desperate team willing to give up their top players in the midst of a pennant race. Imagine what Santana would go for right now?

[laurens]

Honestly, anyone who does not see the logic behind ERA > WL record is not very bright in general.

 

You're absolutely right... But I do have a question.

 

I know you can't really trust solely on ERA, but I haven't really gotten into sabermetrics that much. Is there a stat that gives a better overview of a pitcher's full capacity?

 

For instance, if a pitcher pichtes 6 innings and gives up 2 runs, that would result in an ERA of 3.00. But what if he were to pitch 3 more scoreless innings if he wasn't pulled, that'd be a 2.00 ERA. So just because he's pulled, he gets 1 ER added. I'm searching for a stat that gives an average for all innings pitched and runs allowed, without the 9 inning average.

 

I know it might be an obvious question, but I don't really know that much about more complicated stats.

 

I hope you know what I'm talking about :)

[CubmanPi]

I opened this thread wondering if someone named TwinsGM posted here.

[nilodnayr]

He's not stupid. He's just covering his ass.

No, he is. He got Carlos Gomez and peanuts for Johan Santana, and Gomez isn't even that good. I'd be surprised if Gomez ever became a >.800 OPS guy, although he does have great defense and pretty good speed. (But he's not that good of a basestealer)

 

Imagine how good the Twins would be with both Liriano and Santana? They'd probably lead the Central by 8 games.

 

But who could have reasonably expected the AL central to be so easy this year? It was looking like the Tigers and Indians were going to be in a dogfight until the end and both wind up wth 90+ wins. I don't blame them for selling last year. And we really don't know how to judge the Santana trade without really knowing what the other offers were. It sounded like the Red Sox were giving up a lot more, but who knows. Really they weren't trading Santana, they were trading the right to sign Santana to a market rate deal. Theres a big difference there.

[badnews]

I wouldn't be surprised if Carlos Gomez turned out to be Nook Logan. He's ridiculously toolsy but he's also just plain awful.

 

Funny the Twins just cut the amazing Livan.

[sneakypower]

Nook had no bat speed. I honestly have no idea why Gomez just stopped running. 5-14 for SB's since May 12. This is a guy who averaged 68 steals per 162 games in the minors.

 

it's like he shows up to play fantastic defense and the rest of the game is half-assed. he's coasting on tools alone right now.

 

Funny the Twins just cut the amazing Livan.

...which just goes to show how disingenuous the quote in the original post of this thread was.

 

it's better GM manners to come up with some hairbrained rationalization for what looks like a stupid move. "i'll take the guy with the bad ERA and good record" rather than "Livan's been pretty shitty/lucky and we're just manipulating another year out of Liriano at this point" serves well enough to keep people off your trail of penny pinching.