Re: So they've finally figured out Kosuke.

[bcl412]

Ummm, not trying to be a jerk - but the whole "fouling off 2-strike pitches" is a technique called "spoiling." Good hitters can do that.

 

My original point was that pitchers are figuring out his technique. It used to be hed get 2 strikes, and then foul off a ton of them, and often draw a walk or a hit, or at least wear the pitcher down a bit.

 

Now it seems in those same situations, once hes in foul off mode, they just throw something out of his reach and he'll chase.

 

You're saying that before he would foul pitches off and than draw a walk, hit, etc. but now the pitchers are just throwing it out of his reach. Wouldn't that mean he would just take that pitch for a ball like you said he does before?

 

I'm not sure why he is struggling of late. It's probably because it's something that major league players do every once and a while. I don't think the league has made an adjustment throwing the ball just a little further away from him because he has a really good eye and that wouldn't work. He would just take the pitch.

[javy knows my name]

Ummm, not trying to be a jerk - but the whole "fouling off 2-strike pitches" is a technique called "spoiling." Good hitters can do that.

 

My original point was that pitchers are figuring out his technique. It used to be hed get 2 strikes, and then foul off a ton of them, and often draw a walk or a hit, or at least wear the pitcher down a bit.

 

Now it seems in those same situations, once hes in foul off mode, they just throw something out of his reach and he'll chase.

 

You're saying that before he would foul pitches off and than draw a walk, hit, etc. but now the pitchers are just throwing it out of his reach. Wouldn't that mean he would just take that pitch for a ball like you said he does before?

 

I'm not sure why he is struggling of late. It's probably because it's something that major league players do every once and a while. I don't think the league has made an adjustment throwing the ball just a little further away from him because he has a really good eye and that wouldn't work. He would just take the pitch.

No, he really does seem to bail pitchers out on 2-strike counts a lot lately. But it probably is just a prolonged slump. I'm not worried, yet.

[bcl412]

Ummm, not trying to be a jerk - but the whole "fouling off 2-strike pitches" is a technique called "spoiling." Good hitters can do that.

 

My original point was that pitchers are figuring out his technique. It used to be hed get 2 strikes, and then foul off a ton of them, and often draw a walk or a hit, or at least wear the pitcher down a bit.

 

Now it seems in those same situations, once hes in foul off mode, they just throw something out of his reach and he'll chase.

 

You're saying that before he would foul pitches off and than draw a walk, hit, etc. but now the pitchers are just throwing it out of his reach. Wouldn't that mean he would just take that pitch for a ball like you said he does before?

 

I'm not sure why he is struggling of late. It's probably because it's something that major league players do every once and a while. I don't think the league has made an adjustment throwing the ball just a little further away from him because he has a really good eye and that wouldn't work. He would just take the pitch.

No, he really does seem to bail pitchers out on 2-strike counts a lot lately. But it probably is just a prolonged slump. I'm not worried, yet.

 

This implies that Koskue is messing up as opposed to pitchers figuring him out, at least that's the way I take it. Does it really matter, probably not, except that if it is you messing up as opposed to them finding a weakness you would like to think that is easily fixible (Although this isn't always the case).

[Tracer Bullet]

The guy is OPS'ing .800 after over 1/2 of his first ML season. He does a very nice job in the OF. His OBP is hovering around .400. I think some people's expectations for Kosuke are a bit over the top. Let's give him some time to adjust to ML pitching.

 

Fukudome's salary dictates what expectations should be.

 

Huh? So Kosuke's game should go from high OBP and 20 HR's to Dunn-like power simply because someone chose to pay him big money? Sounds like the one(s) you should be criticizing are the guy(s) who set the mkt price for OF'ers of his skill level and then decided to compound the issue by continuing to pay it.

 

Its not Koskue's fault that he got the contract he did. Money won't magically change what he is capable of.

 

Um...he had multiple offers on the table. He picked this one. I'm not sure there's anyone that needs "blaming" for his contract (which is what your use of "fault" implies) but if there is, Kosuke gets some if not all of it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Its not Koskue's fault that he got the contract he did. Money won't magically change what he is capable of.

 

Um...he had multiple offers on the table. He picked this one. I'm not sure there's anyone that needs "blaming" for his contract (which is what your use of "fault" implies) but if there is, Kosuke gets some if not all of it.

 

This is a confusing response considering that Kosuke took less money to be a Cub.

[Tracer Bullet]

Its not Koskue's fault that he got the contract he did. Money won't magically change what he is capable of.

 

Um...he had multiple offers on the table. He picked this one. I'm not sure there's anyone that needs "blaming" for his contract (which is what your use of "fault" implies) but if there is, Kosuke gets some if not all of it.

 

This is a confusing response considering that Kosuke took less money to be a Cub.

 

Only if you read into it meaning that isn't there. As I said, I'm not sure anyone is at fault for Kosuke's contract. I'm just disputing the bolded statement. Kosuke chose the Cubs over a number of teams. How can you say it's not his "fault" that he got the contract he did. Of course it's his "fault." If he didn't want that contract, he could have signed a different one.

 

I'm not sure what RynoRules' intent was when he made that comment, but it seemed to miss the point. dexter was saying that when you sign a contract for a lot of money, fans expect a certain level of production. Suggesting that Kosuke had no control over his contract and thus can't be blamed for fans feeling disappointment is just wrong. Obviously his stats aren't going to get better because he signed a big contract - that's stupid. But people expect more production from players with bigger salaries - and are more disappointed when they believe that a highly paid player is underperforming, relative to his contract.

[Soul]

Not sure if anyone else has tried to make this point, but here's Soto's last 14 days:

 

.360/.411/.680 - he's OPSing over 1.000

 

Even going back to his last 28 days:

 

.299/.367/.529 - very respectable, considering it's an OPS of .891 and trending upwards.

 

My point here: before we start believing that Kosuke has been "figured out" -- which indicates that he might not even be able to come back to better numbers -- let's consider the possibility that he might just be in a slump. There were a few posts around here awhile ago about Soto having been "figured out" when it was probably just a slump, and good Geo is, indeed, back.

[RynoRules]

Its not Koskue's fault that he got the contract he did. Money won't magically change what he is capable of.

 

Um...he had multiple offers on the table. He picked this one. I'm not sure there's anyone that needs "blaming" for his contract (which is what your use of "fault" implies) but if there is, Kosuke gets some if not all of it.

 

This is a confusing response considering that Kosuke took less money to be a Cub.

 

Only if you read into it meaning that isn't there. As I said, I'm not sure anyone is at fault for Kosuke's contract. I'm just disputing the bolded statement. Kosuke chose the Cubs over a number of teams. How can you say it's not his "fault" that he got the contract he did. Of course it's his "fault." If he didn't want that contract, he could have signed a different one.

 

I'm not sure what RynoRules' intent was when he made that comment, but it seemed to miss the point. dexter was saying that when you sign a contract for a lot of money, fans expect a certain level of production. Suggesting that Kosuke had no control over his contract and thus can't be blamed for fans feeling disappointment is just wrong. Obviously his stats aren't going to get better because he signed a big contract - that's stupid. But people expect more production from players with bigger salaries - and are more disappointed when they believe that a highly paid player is underperforming, relative to his contract.

 

I think its dumb to base your expectations for performance on salary insomuch as salary has no correlation with ability. Kosuke is what he is in terms of his realistic abilities no matter how much he makes.

[Tracer Bullet]

Its not Koskue's fault that he got the contract he did. Money won't magically change what he is capable of.

 

Um...he had multiple offers on the table. He picked this one. I'm not sure there's anyone that needs "blaming" for his contract (which is what your use of "fault" implies) but if there is, Kosuke gets some if not all of it.

 

This is a confusing response considering that Kosuke took less money to be a Cub.

 

Only if you read into it meaning that isn't there. As I said, I'm not sure anyone is at fault for Kosuke's contract. I'm just disputing the bolded statement. Kosuke chose the Cubs over a number of teams. How can you say it's not his "fault" that he got the contract he did. Of course it's his "fault." If he didn't want that contract, he could have signed a different one.

 

I'm not sure what RynoRules' intent was when he made that comment, but it seemed to miss the point. dexter was saying that when you sign a contract for a lot of money, fans expect a certain level of production. Suggesting that Kosuke had no control over his contract and thus can't be blamed for fans feeling disappointment is just wrong. Obviously his stats aren't going to get better because he signed a big contract - that's stupid. But people expect more production from players with bigger salaries - and are more disappointed when they believe that a highly paid player is underperforming, relative to his contract.

 

I think its dumb to base your expectations for performance on salary insomuch as salary has no correlation with ability. Kosuke is what he is in terms of his realistic abilities no matter how much he makes.

 

I think there's some faulty logic in your post. Do you really think there's no correlation between salary and ability?

 

Salary has no effect on ability - fully agree. Once arbitration starts and certainly for FAs, performance (or, more accurately, expected future performance) has a huge effect on salary. So, if you pay a player $6m and you get the same production you could get for half of that, he's underperforming and people are going to be disappointed.*

 

 

* I'm not saying you could get Fukudome's current level of production for $3m. It's a hypothetical.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think its dumb to base your expectations for performance on salary insomuch as salary has no correlation with ability.

 

Huh? The CBA setup inevitably leaves you with greatly underpaid young players, and we all know there are plenty of overpaid players. However, your best players are generally the most compensated, and the highest paid players who aren't that good are usually the most disliked. I don't see what's so dumb about expecting highly paid players to perform well.

[RynoRules]

I don't have time to respond to both of the above, but my point is that GM's overpay for talent all the time. Why should one's salary make us think the individual will be any better than what the hard data indicates?

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't have time to respond to both of the above, but my point is that GM's overpay for talent all the time. Why should one's salary make us think the individual will be any better than what the hard data indicates?

 

Well, a) there wasn't a whole lot of hard data to indicate what Kosuke would do. There was some, for people who made an effort to find it, but it wasn't all that easy. And it's hard to blame fans for not finding it. Not everybody can spend all day online researching ballplayers. And b) it's not a matter of salary making us think what a guy will do instead of what the hard data indicates. Everybody knows teams have budgets. When they spend X on a player they can't spend that X on somebody else. So anybody making a lot of money is going to be expected to pull his weight. If he doesn't, he's going to take heat. It's part of the game and I can't understand how anybody can pretend it's invalid.

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't have time to respond to both of the above, but my point is that GM's overpay for talent all the time. Why should one's salary make us think the individual will be any better than what the hard data indicates?

 

I don't think it's a matter of people saying that the salary will make the player better. I'm not sure why you keep going back to that, which is a causal relationship no one has asserted.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Not sure if anyone else has tried to make this point, but here's Soto's last 14 days:

 

.360/.411/.680 - he's OPSing over 1.000

 

Even going back to his last 28 days:

 

.299/.367/.529 - very respectable, considering it's an OPS of .891 and trending upwards.

 

My point here: before we start believing that Kosuke has been "figured out" -- which indicates that he might not even be able to come back to better numbers -- let's consider the possibility that he might just be in a slump. There were a few posts around here awhile ago about Soto having been "figured out" when it was probably just a slump, and good Geo is, indeed, back.

 

That, plus the near-certainty that Geo will have another slump---all payers hit a rough patch (or patches) during the season. Kosuke will be o.k....I think he's just to good to look so bad for much longer.

[RynoRules]

I don't have time to respond to both of the above, but my point is that GM's overpay for talent all the time. Why should one's salary make us think the individual will be any better than what the hard data indicates?

 

Well, a) there wasn't a whole lot of hard data to indicate what Kosuke would do. There was some, for people who made an effort to find it, but it wasn't all that easy. And it's hard to blame fans for not finding it. Not everybody can spend all day online researching ballplayers. And b) it's not a matter of salary making us think what a guy will do instead of what the hard data indicates. Everybody knows teams have budgets. When they spend X on a player they can't spend that X on somebody else. So anybody making a lot of money is going to be expected to pull his weight. If he doesn't, he's going to take heat. It's part of the game and I can't understand how anybody can pretend it's invalid.

 

So go on and "give him heat" if that's what ya' like.

 

IMO, he's performed as well as I expected he woiuld. If you expect much more than what he has given, IMO, your expectations are unrealistic.

[bhogg]

I might be looking at the stats the wrong way, but it seems like kosuke is really terrible with 2 strikes --- maybe every major leaguer is terrible with 2 strikes.

 

Maybe he should get the Soriano treatment and hit 5th. His numbers are great there --- .893 OPS.

 

 

This makes me wonder if he changes his approach based on where he hits in the order. Maybe he looks to drive the ball more when he's in a "power" spot in the order.

 

I've always heard that Ichiro could be a power hitter if that's what the M's needed out of him. Instead, he's a lead off hitter and approaches his at-bats as such. Maybe Kosuke is this way.

 

Just thinking out loud. Please don't hate me.

[Butterscup1679666578]

I might be looking at the stats the wrong way, but it seems like kosuke is really terrible with 2 strikes --- maybe every major leaguer is terrible with 2 strikes.

 

Maybe he should get the Soriano treatment and hit 5th. His numbers are great there --- .893 OPS.

 

 

This makes me wonder if he changes his approach based on where he hits in the order. Maybe he looks to drive the ball more when he's in a "power" spot in the order.

 

I've always heard that Ichiro could be a power hitter if that's what the M's needed out of him. Instead, he's a lead off hitter and approaches his at-bats as such. Maybe Kosuke is this way.

 

Just thinking out loud. Please don't hate me.

 

I'd actually like to move Kosuke back down to 5 or 6 when Soriano comes back:

 

Soriano

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Soto/Kosuke

Kosuke/Soto

Edmonds

DeRosa

P

[badnews]

I'm not sure why everyone is certain Fukudome will be okay, I'm not. Now his OPS is below .800 and he's been like a .730 OPS guy since May. Before I said he was heading for Scott Hatteberg 2004 territory but now it could be even worse.

 

I am worried.

[TruffleShuffle]

we can't afford to sit around and lose games because he's not hitting. when soriano comes back, put derosa out in RF and send fukudome down to mesa or something to get straightened out.

[Mizzou]

I know I'll get backlash from the "batting order means nothing" crowd, but...

 

Kosuke batting 2nd: .125/.222/.225/.447 (granted, only 45 PA's)

Kosuke batting 5th: .316/.427/.466/.893 (233 PA's)

 

Thoughts on hitting Edmonds second, while moving the F bomb back to 5th or even 6th behind Soto?

[badnews]

we can't afford to sit around and lose games because he's not hitting. when soriano comes back, put derosa out in RF and send fukudome down to mesa or something to get straightened out.

 

Since May 4th, Fukudome has hit .245 with a .356 OBP, slugged .365, for a whopping .722 OPS. That is what he has done since May 4th. That is a long time. That's not "oh, he's hit a rough 10 day patch."

 

I don't understand the reasoning behind some of the knee-jerk defenses in this topic. A .722 OPS for a corner outfielder since May 4th is not good enough.

 

Since June 4 he's hit .238 with a .340 OBP, slugged .369, for a .709 OPS, with 32 strikeouts in 122 ABs.

 

Isn't there reasonable cause for concern here?

[David]

Really, the best solution, IMO, would be to put Fuku in CF (assuming his approval of course) and to pick up a corner OFer that hits a little more like a corner OFer...

 

That would be in the offseason, that is, unless Hendry could pull off some sort of miracle deal for Holliday (though his power numbers aren't as good away from Coors). I guess I wouldn't put anything past Hendry at this point, but I doubt the OF situation is addressed at all this year, especially if Edmonds has one or two more games like today before the deadline.

 

It should be noted, though, that Fuku's season still measures up to other Japanese players' debut seasons and said players (namely Matsui) have gone on to improve in subsequent seasons. I'm not a fan of comparing him only to other Japanese players in terms of evaluating his skills (i.e. the "he's a combo of Matsui & Ichiro" nonsense), but the transition between leagues (and cultures) is a similar one for all of them.

[David]

I know I'll get backlash from the "batting order means nothing" crowd, but...

 

Kosuke batting 2nd: .125/.222/.225/.447 (granted, only 45 PA's)

Kosuke batting 5th: .316/.427/.466/.893 (233 PA's)

 

Thoughts on hitting Edmonds second, while moving the F bomb back to 5th or even 6th behind Soto?

 

 

Except that his numbers were sinking before he was moved in the order. Wasn't a small part of the reasoning for the move the fact that he was struggling a bit?

[Sammy Sofa]

Free Bonds.

[Jon]

we can't afford to sit around and lose games because he's not hitting. when soriano comes back, put derosa out in RF and send fukudome down to mesa or something to get straightened out.

 

Since May 4th, Fukudome has hit .245 with a .356 OBP, slugged .365, for a whopping .722 OPS. That is what he has done since May 4th. That is a long time. That's not "oh, he's hit a rough 10 day patch."

 

I don't understand the reasoning behind some of the knee-jerk defenses in this topic. A .722 OPS for a corner outfielder since May 4th is not good enough.

 

Since June 4 he's hit .238 with a .340 OBP, slugged .369, for a .709 OPS, with 32 strikeouts in 122 ABs.

 

Isn't there reasonable cause for concern here?

You're right, it's not a 10 game rough patch. It's a 14 game rough patch.

 

Again:

3/31 - 5/3 - .348/.443/.500

5/4 - 5/26 - .206/.329/.265

5/27 - 6/28 - .315/.423/.500

6/28 - 7/12 - .170/.254/.245

 

He's having his second slump as a big leaguer. Before this one, he was hitting .301/.407/.441. It's not a huge deal.

 

Now excuse me while I have to go ice my knee after hitting it on my desk.