Dempster

[Twiggy]

Yep, I was 100% wrong lol.

[nilodnayr]

let's also remember that dempster hasn't been a full-time starter in five years, and relying on him to pitch well in september and october would be a very dicey proposition.

he's a fine-tuned professional athlete, fatigue should not be an issue

 

that really has nothing to do with anything

[Ding Dong Johnson]

let's also remember that dempster hasn't been a full-time starter in five years, and relying on him to pitch well in september and october would be a very dicey proposition.

he's a fine-tuned professional athlete, fatigue should not be an issue

 

that really has nothing to do with anything

it was also a joke as evidenced by calling Dempster "fine-tuned"

[nilodnayr]

let's also remember that dempster hasn't been a full-time starter in five years, and relying on him to pitch well in september and october would be a very dicey proposition.

he's a fine-tuned professional athlete, fatigue should not be an issue

 

that really has nothing to do with anything

it was also a joke as evidenced by calling Dempster "fine-tuned"

 

Have you ever heard him sing? Puts David Archuleta to shame.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

snip a long example of how to school me in BABIP calculations

 

That all sounds cool and right. Dempster has definitely been BABIP lucky and that is the primary reason he has a better RA than he normally does.

 

My point in all this rambling and my previous post is to consider that Dempster "has fundamentally changed as a pitcher" and that has caused him this success as a miniscule reason (if any) for his success in comparison to his luck. As Kyle more appropriately stated in his last post, if Dempster has fundamentally changed at all, its been ever so slight in comparison to the affect luck has had in the difference between his expected results and actual results.

 

Agreed. I think, to sum myself up even more, is that Dempster hasn't really changed as a pitcher in terms of basic peripherals: walks, Ks and HRs. But when you move from relieving to starting, not changing is a victory because starting should costs you some performance. If Dempster can start all season with the same effectiveness as he showed as a reliever, I think that makes him our fourth-best starter.

[nilodnayr]

snip a long example of how to school me in BABIP calculations

 

That all sounds cool and right. Dempster has definitely been BABIP lucky and that is the primary reason he has a better RA than he normally does.

 

My point in all this rambling and my previous post is to consider that Dempster "has fundamentally changed as a pitcher" and that has caused him this success as a miniscule reason (if any) for his success in comparison to his luck. As Kyle more appropriately stated in his last post, if Dempster has fundamentally changed at all, its been ever so slight in comparison to the affect luck has had in the difference between his expected results and actual results.

 

Agreed. I think, to sum myself up even more, is that Dempster hasn't really changed as a pitcher in terms of basic peripherals: walks, Ks and HRs. But when you move from relieving to starting, not changing is a victory because starting should costs you some performance. If Dempster can start all season with the same effectiveness as he showed as a reliever, I think that makes him our fourth-best starter.

Yes, I think that is a good an important point that at least so far, Dempsters peripherals are fairly inline with what they were as a reliever and that is a win in and of itself. Although, its still very early to be saying that he will beat the typical loss in moving from the pen to the rotiation. Although, we are really speaking in generalities in terms of how close his peripherals are to what they were as a reliever...I'm not sure how much of a fluctuation in those rates would result in a drop in a half or three-quarters of a run in ERA (or rather DIPS).

[Guest]

i'll rain on teh parade and remind everyone there are 4 1/2 months to go

 

So are we not supposed to not talk about any of the team's success because we are only in mid-May?

 

I would say that a 5-1 record, sub 2.50 ERA and top 20 ranking in Ks is worthy of a little Demp recognition.

 

Jason Marquis in 2007 after eighth start on May 14:

 

52 2/3 IP, 5-1 record, 2.22 ERA, 0.968 WHIP with opponents batting .183/.254/.251/.505.

 

He finished with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, with opponents batting /.256/.335/.409/.744.

 

Which means after his start on May 14, in his final 25 starts and one relief appearance, he went 7-8 with a 5.50 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP and opponents batting .281/.362/.464/.826.

 

So yeah, it's nice what he's done so far and I'm happy with his performance, but it doesn't mean that it will continue.

[CubColtPacer]

i'll rain on teh parade and remind everyone there are 4 1/2 months to go

 

So are we not supposed to not talk about any of the team's success because we are only in mid-May?

 

I would say that a 5-1 record, sub 2.50 ERA and top 20 ranking in Ks is worthy of a little Demp recognition.

 

Jason Marquis in 2007 after eighth start on May 14:

 

52 2/3 IP, 5-1 record, 2.22 ERA, 0.968 WHIP with opponents batting .183/.254/.251/.505.

 

He finished with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, with opponents batting /.256/.335/.409/.744.

 

Which means after his start on May 14, in his final 25 starts and one relief appearance, he went 7-8 with a 5.50 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP and opponents batting .281/.362/.464/.826.

 

So yeah, it's nice what he's done so far and I'm happy with his performance, but it doesn't mean that it will continue.

 

Agreed, but even Marquis's final line was a lot better than most people (including me) expected out of Dempster this year. The fact that Dempster's gotten off to a good start gives him a lot of wiggle room for the rest of the season, just like it did for Marquis.

[Amazing_Grace]

It's only May, but even so, this move has gone far better than I'd ever dreamed it would. Dempster could give up 5 runs in 5 innings every start the rest of the year and he'd still have surpassed my expectations just based on what he's done so far.

 

It really is a good thing that he's pitched well, given that Rich Hill fell apart, Lilly had a bad April, and Marquis has been Marquis.

 

I can't imagine Dempster will be able to keep it up all season, but if he can keep it up until Rich Hill figures out how to throw strikes again, I'll be thrilled.

[mul21]

I find the comparison to Marquis interesting in that Demp is a completely different kind of pitcher. Marquis is so reliant on that sinker to get ground balls and doesn't miss many bats whereas Demp's pitches are more reliant on movement to miss bats and get weak contact.

 

I realize the numbers/history are comparable, but the fact that they are very different in style gives me hope Demp can maintain some of his current success.

 

I don't expect him to maintain an ERA in the 2's, but something mid to high 3's seems pretty reasonable.

[Amazing_Grace]

I find the comparison to Marquis interesting in that Demp is a completely different kind of pitcher. Marquis is so reliant on that sinker to get ground balls and doesn't miss many bats whereas Demp's pitches are more reliant on movement to miss bats and get weak contact.

 

I realize the numbers/history are comparable, but the fact that they are very different in style gives me hope Demp can maintain some of his current success.

 

I don't expect him to maintain an ERA in the 2's, but something mid to high 3's seems pretty reasonable.

 

If I recall correctly, Dempster was fairly highly regarded when he first came up and has always had good stuff, but for whatever reason never put it together as a starter.

[dlee4prez]

I used to always sweat bullets when he'd be brought in to relieve in close games or close, but I'm starting to get more confident in his starting pitching. There are still times though that I'm worried the old Demp's going to come out and get rocked.

[mcgoobs]

Dempster's performance should be expected to regress as the season continues. That being said, if he finishes the season as a starter worthy of one of the five spots in rotation, he will have exceeded my expectations. I fully expected Dempster to struggle as a starter and be demoted to the pen with Lieber or Marshall replacing him as a starter.

 

It's worth noting that Dempster's to-date numbers as a starter have exceeded his performance as a starter with the Marlins and the Reds.

 

- HR/9 this year of .6 vs .9-1.3

- BB/9 this year of 2.7 vs 3.3-5.4

- K/9 this year of 7.6 vs 5.5-6.9