Interesting article on playoff chances

[TruffleShuffle]

Basically usually uses an approach that weights the PECOTA-projected standings with the current start and some pythagorean influences. you'll enjoy the team they have projected to have the best record.

 

http://vegaswatch.net/2008/04/finding-happy-medium.html

[nilodnayr]

Or if you visit less shadily named websites than vegas watch, you might have stumbled across this today.

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/do_i_care_that_the_tigers_are_7_13_the_ws_are_11_7_or_that_flo_is_12_7/

 

If you think about it though, I think the vegas guy has it wrong by using pythag instead of actual record like mgl does. If you are trying to predict what the actual record of the team is going to be at the end of the season at this stage, just take their actual record and pro-rate the rest of the season using whatever projection system you want. Pythag tells us how many games the team should have won up until this point, but frankly, we don't care how many games the team should have won since we KNOW how many games the team has won. Whether a team is 21-1 by winning all 1 run games or 21-1 by blowing out their opponents, I don't care. I know the team won 21 games. I don't need to, nor should I correct for that. The proration of the projection system over the next 140 games is going to take care of that regression to the mean in luck.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Or if you visit less shadily named websites than vegas watch, you might have stumbled across this today.

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/do_i_care_that_the_tigers_are_7_13_the_ws_are_11_7_or_that_flo_is_12_7/

 

If you think about it though, I think the vegas guy has it wrong by using pythag instead of actual record like mgl does. If you are trying to predict what the actual record of the team is going to be at the end of the season at this stage, just take their actual record and pro-rate the rest of the season using whatever projection system you want. Pythag tells us how many games the team should have won up until this point, but frankly, we don't care how many games the team should have won since we KNOW how many games the team has won. Whether a team is 21-1 by winning all 1 run games or 21-1 by blowing out their opponents, I don't care. I know the team won 21 games. I don't need to, nor should I correct for that. The proration of the projection system over the next 140 games is going to take care of that regression to the mean in luck.

 

Using pythagorean record *is* a projection system. It represents the adjustment you make to your preseason projections as the season wears on.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds report on baseballprospectus, which I'm a big fan of, has the Cubs at 96 wins and a 70% chance of making the playoffs, best odds in the National League and behind only the Yankees.