Steals=Meaningless?

[rynesrevenge0206]

I was checking out Shane Victorino's stats since I'm in the middle of an off-line draft with lots of time between picks, and I was surprised by a few things:

 

1. While his at-bats stayed about the same from 2006 to 2007 (415 and 456), his steals went up from 4 to 37! That's just a ridiculous jump.

 

2. You would think that 33 EXTRA steals would really improve his runs total, but it only went up from 70 to 78. Considering he also increased his HR total by 6 in 2007 (accounting for 6 of the 8 runs), the 33 extra steals really made ZERO difference.

 

I know most of us already know that steals are overrated, so this isn't anything new, but I was astounded at the minimal difference that resulted in such a hike in steals.

 

The only thing I can think of is maybe he got moved around in the order, but I don't know where to look to find if that's the case.

 

Okay, back to work!

[BigbadB]

He definitely had more at bats in the top half of the order last year.

[TruffleShuffle]

here are some other factors to consider:

 

-what percentage of the time was he left on base last year? i have no idea, but that might have been higher.

-he played in 153 games in 2006, but only 131 in 2007. i know that he was a regular starter in 2007, and missed some time due to injury. but he had about 50 more PAs in 2007.

-so what was he doing in his 153 games in 2006, having only gotten 462 PAs? well, he did PH 38 times, which accounts for a number of his games. but i suspect he pinch ran sometimes as well, and was inserted in the game in a good position to score runs.

 

 

i guess all that being said, stealing bases as effectively as he did it last year does help increase your run total, but variations in runs from year to year are much, much more reliant on factors outside one's control.

[nilodnayr]

Using runs as a way to value steals is just about the most bassackwards thing I've ever heard

[rynesrevenge0206]

One major point I forgot was that his OBP also nearly identical form 2006 to 2007 (.346, .347). That stat AND the ABs being about equal makes my point a little more valid.

[abuck1220]

case closed!