Keeper Conundrum

nilodnayr · February 8, 2008

So, I'm in a 12 team 5x5 roto league with 5 keepers. Problem is that I have more than 5 guys I'd love to keep.

Rollins

Braun

Phillips

Berkman

Bedard

Beckett

Manny

Smoltz

Pena

I think right now the top 4 are locks for me.

I'm trying to pull off a trade with some of the rest to get a really good last guy. Right now I'm in discussions for Howard and I've sent out feelers on Santana.

The guy who has Howard is evaluating his team, but is interested in Berkman, Bedard, and Beckett. He didn't mention if he liked all of them in a package, or some or whatever. If he wants all three, I think I'll counter with Berkman + one of the pitchers. Is the upgrade from Berkman to Howard worth it? I'm worried about what Howards BA could be.

sneakypower · February 8, 2008

So, I'm in a 12 team 5x5 roto league with 5 keepers. Problem is that I have more than 5 guys I'd love to keep.

Rollins
Braun
Phillips
Berkman
Bedard
Beckett
Manny
Smoltz
Pena

I think right now the top 4 are locks for me.

I'm trying to pull off a trade with some of the rest to get a really good last guy. Right now I'm in discussions for Howard and I've sent out feelers on Santana.

The guy who has Howard is evaluating his team, but is interested in Berkman, Bedard, and Beckett. He didn't mention if he liked all of them in a package, or some or whatever. If he wants all three, I think I'll counter with Berkman + one of the pitchers. Is the upgrade from Berkman to Howard worth it? I'm worried about what Howards BA could be.

The upgrade is worth it; Howard will probably be the best 5x5 1B this year. His average won't be sub .280 again, just keep Smoltz.

Mephistopheles · February 8, 2008

drop phillips

nilodnayr · February 8, 2008

drop phillips

Your player rankings disagree with you.

I'm big on position scarcity, especially because my league has SS, 2B, and MI. I like Phillips. It was his first breakout year so he definitely could bust next year, but he was a stud prospect, I think similar to Hanley, hes just finally realizing his potential. I mean if you look at him from a fantasy perspective hes basically Grady Sizemore with 2b eligibility. Hes no Utley, but even if he drops down from 30/30, 100/100 to 20/20 with 80/80 thats still pretty great production out of your 2b spot.

sneakypower · February 8, 2008

drop phillips

the former bp #5 prospect in baseball?? he's going to be warpalicious!

drop phillips

Your player rankings disagree with you.

I'm big on position scarcity, especially because my league has SS, 2B, and MI. I like Phillips. It was his first breakout year so he definitely could bust next year, but he was a stud prospect, I think similar to Hanley, hes just finally realizing his potential. I mean if you look at him from a fantasy perspective hes basically Grady Sizemore with 2b eligibility. Hes no Utley, but even if he drops down from 30/30, 100/100 to 20/20 with 80/80 thats still pretty great production out of your 2b spot.

i like him a lot if he's not leading off. but if that happens, you can always get a good return for a 30/30 2B in a trade.

Edited February 8, 2008 by sneakypower

nilodnayr · February 8, 2008

So, I'm in a 12 team 5x5 roto league with 5 keepers. Problem is that I have more than 5 guys I'd love to keep.

Rollins
Braun
Phillips
Berkman
Bedard
Beckett
Manny
Smoltz
Pena

I think right now the top 4 are locks for me.

I'm trying to pull off a trade with some of the rest to get a really good last guy. Right now I'm in discussions for Howard and I've sent out feelers on Santana.

The guy who has Howard is evaluating his team, but is interested in Berkman, Bedard, and Beckett. He didn't mention if he liked all of them in a package, or some or whatever. If he wants all three, I think I'll counter with Berkman + one of the pitchers. Is the upgrade from Berkman to Howard worth it? I'm worried about what Howards BA could be.
The upgrade is worth it; Howard will probably be the best 5x5 1B this year. His average won't be sub .280 again, just keep Smoltz.

I worry about Howards K rate. Its historic for his batting average.

Smoltz is a guy who I think I can not keep and grab a few rounds into the draft

sneakypower · February 8, 2008

So, I'm in a 12 team 5x5 roto league with 5 keepers. Problem is that I have more than 5 guys I'd love to keep.

Rollins
Braun
Phillips
Berkman
Bedard
Beckett
Manny
Smoltz
Pena

I think right now the top 4 are locks for me.

I'm trying to pull off a trade with some of the rest to get a really good last guy. Right now I'm in discussions for Howard and I've sent out feelers on Santana.

The guy who has Howard is evaluating his team, but is interested in Berkman, Bedard, and Beckett. He didn't mention if he liked all of them in a package, or some or whatever. If he wants all three, I think I'll counter with Berkman + one of the pitchers. Is the upgrade from Berkman to Howard worth it? I'm worried about what Howards BA could be.
The upgrade is worth it; Howard will probably be the best 5x5 1B this year. His average won't be sub .280 again, just keep Smoltz.

I worry about Howards K rate. Its historic for his batting average.

Smoltz is a guy who I think I can not keep and grab a few rounds into the draft

that's less of an issue with his freakish LD%. his K rate was a career high and his BABIP a career low, those two rates should approach career norms.

he'll be fine in BA. 45/130 should make it a non-issue anyways.

Smoltz isn't that much different than Beckett and Bedard, that I think it's worth having 3 first-rounder types as your foundation and still keep a good #1 starter.

nilodnayr · February 8, 2008

So, I'm in a 12 team 5x5 roto league with 5 keepers. Problem is that I have more than 5 guys I'd love to keep.

Rollins
Braun
Phillips
Berkman
Bedard
Beckett
Manny
Smoltz
Pena

I think right now the top 4 are locks for me.

I'm trying to pull off a trade with some of the rest to get a really good last guy. Right now I'm in discussions for Howard and I've sent out feelers on Santana.

The guy who has Howard is evaluating his team, but is interested in Berkman, Bedard, and Beckett. He didn't mention if he liked all of them in a package, or some or whatever. If he wants all three, I think I'll counter with Berkman + one of the pitchers. Is the upgrade from Berkman to Howard worth it? I'm worried about what Howards BA could be.
The upgrade is worth it; Howard will probably be the best 5x5 1B this year. His average won't be sub .280 again, just keep Smoltz.

I worry about Howards K rate. Its historic for his batting average.

Smoltz is a guy who I think I can not keep and grab a few rounds into the draft
that's less of an issue with his freakish LD%. his K rate was a career high and his BABIP a career low, those two rates should approach career norms.

he'll be fine in BA. 45/130 should make it a non-issue anyways.

Smoltz isn't that much different than Beckett and Bedard, that I think it's worth having 3 first-rounder types as your foundation and still keep a good #1 starter.

Yeah, for some reason Smoltz is always undervalued in my league. I think I got him in the 10th round or so last year and this year he was pretty much the same. He just flies under the radar because he doesn't get the hype. People usually don't keep that many starters, on average I'd say each team takes 1 guy, so I'd like to go with 4 position players and 1 starter. I'd prefer it to be either Bedard or Beckett though leaving me the ability to grab smoltz a few rounds in.

Mephistopheles · February 9, 2008

drop phillips

Your player rankings disagree with you.

I'm big on position scarcity, especially because my league has SS, 2B, and MI. I like Phillips. It was his first breakout year so he definitely could bust next year, but he was a stud prospect, I think similar to Hanley, hes just finally realizing his potential. I mean if you look at him from a fantasy perspective hes basically Grady Sizemore with 2b eligibility. Hes no Utley, but even if he drops down from 30/30, 100/100 to 20/20 with 80/80 thats still pretty great production out of your 2b spot.

Actually that isn't true. Please read the disclaimers. The value of each category was only based on the distribution of one league. I've since expanded that to three. Right now he's ranked 48th out of all position players (after about 25 you can multiply it times 3/2 to estimate where he ranks overall -- so he's probably the 75th or so rated player. Behind these 2B (rank among position players in parentheses):

Chase Utley (11th)

BJ Upton (22nd)

Ian Kinsler (26th)

Brian Roberts (28th)

Kelly Johnson (34th)

Rickie Weeks (36th)

Robinson Cano (41st)

Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent, Dan Uggla and even Placido Polanco are right behind him. The depth at second base is pretty large. Kelly Johnson and Rickie Weeks are my big two second sackers this year. Jeff Kent third. Weeks is going in the 10th round on average this year. Kelly Johnson in the 14th. Weeks might be reserved in a keeper league, but I don't think Johnson will be. There's little reason to keep Brandon Phillips - unless the Reds got smart and realized he has the range and arm to play short (he always has...) and move him there. 2B is relatively deep this year.

A 20/20 80/80 .260 2B is not very good. A replacement level 2B is going to hit .260 10/12 75/70 so we're talking about a +10 HR, RBI, SB, +5 R production out of the guy. Your average 2B is going to hit .280 85/85 20/10. So he's just 10 steals over your average 2B. Depending on your team the ten steals might be worth something. Given that you have Rollins and Braun the 10 steals really aren't worth all that much as long as you make a conscience effort to grab a guy like Matt Kemp, Rocco Baldelli or Lastings Milledge.

Looking at this team we see that:

Ryan Braun

Jimmy Rollins

Lance Berkman

Manny Ramirez

are ranked higher. You can keep Phillips over Ramirez if you want because of the age factor. Keeping Bedard and Beckett should be no brainers. I'd keep Braun, Rollins, Berkman, Bedard and Beckett. And to be fair about the BA ranking crap. Beckett was a former #1, Braun #26, Rollins #31, Berkman #13, and Weeks of course #5, Phillips was up to 8....a large because he was a SS at the time.

So you're not playing blind. Projections:

[code] Rk   Pe_R    PeHR   PeRBI    PeSB PeBA     Ja_R    JaHR   JaRBI    JaSB JaBA    Zi_R    ZiHR   ZiRBI    ZiSB ZiBA Name
1.   104.2    27.6    95.9     9.8 .298     104.5    25.4   106.5     9.8 .307   108.3    25.8   107.3    11.9 .299 Chase Utley
2.   101.4    20.6    76.9    35.0 .270     100.8    22.1    75.6    33.6 .276    98.8    23.9    78.2    28.2 .278 BJ Upton
3.   92.1    21.3    80.5    22.8 .267     107.6    24.7    81.6    26.0 .271   115.5    23.1    79.0    21.9 .269 Ian Kinsler
4.   104.5    14.3    71.4    36.0 .284     95.2    10.8    57.9    36.3 .285    96.7    14.5    83.1    37.4 .287 Brian Roberts
5.   106.3    20.7    82.6    12.7 .279     107.4    20.8    83.3    11.0 .282    98.5    20.5    94.4     9.6 .271 Kelly Johnson
6.   108.4    22.1    74.9    25.2 .265     117.4    20.6    65.3    29.0 .265   115.9    18.9    59.2    29.0 .254 Rickie Weeks
7.   79.7    15.9    83.9     6.3 .299     90.2    19.0    95.2     4.0 .322    88.1    18.2    99.2     3.0 .308 Robinson Cano
8.   87.6    21.6    79.0    20.8 .274     90.7    22.7    79.8    23.7 .270    94.2    22.7    85.5    23.8 .271 Brandon Phillips

[/code]

Honestly though. I think my RP levels are too low. I need to fix the RP and AVG levels. Regardless It's not likely to change this. It's quite clear he has inferior production to all the guys ahead of him. I'm going to readjust them and see what the outcome is. Since the RP level is going to go up, Phillips' low counting stats is going to hurt him relative to most. So don't expect much. He's essentially a one category performer (SB). And not a very good one at that...

Ill readjust the levels shortly.

Mephistopheles · February 9, 2008

and as i expected, the RP level fix didn't change a thing. Just a guy moving up or down a spot or two here and there. In other words, everyone's being oblivious to what Phillips will do.

nilodnayr · February 9, 2008

Though look at the difference between everyone besides Utley. Basically they are in a huge tie for 2nd. I understand what you are saying in terms of depth at the position, but everyone other than johnson and possibly weeks are going to be kept. What does the position look like beyond those guys? Also, since my leage has MI, I'll need to take another 2b/ss as well.

Mephistopheles · February 9, 2008

screenshots!

How to read this. J = James, Z = ZiPS, P = PECOTA The PA in the third column is the PA that ALL the other stats are based on. The other three PAs arent right. Theyre used to multiply runs, HRs and such out on a per PA basis. Also take the Ramirez one with a grain of salt. He's only based off of PECOTA and he's only got Cuban stats.

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_5.gif

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_6.gif

I was very lenient on Cedeno's ability to overtake Theriot :D

................. and then Theriot to overtake DeRosa :|

nilodnayr · February 9, 2008

Thanks!

Mephistopheles · February 9, 2008

One thing to note: In your league the relative value of MIs will increase due to the extra slots. You have CI and 5 OF spots as well too, right? The players who get relatively less valuable are 1B and 3B. Theyre deep even after you get into the 15-20 range at their respective positions. (Mark Reynolds is REALLY good, I suggest a flier on him).

In order of value change

1. Catchers

2. Outfielders

3. Second baseman

4. Shortstop

5. Third baseman

6. First baseman

Since 2B is deeper than SS, stockpiling an extra 2B for MI is a good idea. The amount of players in use for catchers is 100% more. For infielders it's times 50% more and four outfielders its times 67% more.

Sleepers I like (aka guys you should draft) for position players. Guys I won't list are the obvious sleepers (Matt Kemp, Corey Hart, Ryan Zimmerman as they're going in the first 10 rounds). These guys are outside the top ten rounds.

1. Rickie Weeks, 2B (ADP 124.9)

Projection: 113.9 R, 20.5 HR, 66.5 RBI, 27.7 SB, .261 BA

He had a great development season last year. Throw the BA away and look at the improvements he had. He doubled his walk rate, had an huge increase in power, stole bases more often and didn't hurt his K rate anymore with the increased walks. Then almost all of that production was in September and August (9 HR in September). Still, he's a great guy for the MI spot. He's also got a career 111 R per 162 games and scored 87 runs last year in just 118 games. This is mainly because of Braun and Prince.

2. Lastings Milledge, OF (ADP Undrafted)

Projection: 84.5 R, 19.9 HR, 80.3 RBI, 18.3 SB, .284 BA

Remember RFK is gone. The new park is expected to be fairly nuetral so there's no effect for Milledge. He's got the full-time gig with the Nats and while his BA won't be great, he's going to be excellent overall. He's the 33rd rated OF which means he's your average 3rd OF, but most teams draft their third OF in rounds 10-12 if not earlier...and you can get him undrafted.

Projection:

3. Rocco Baldelli, OF (ADP 220.2)

Projection: 92.9 R, 23.8 HR, 85.5 RBI, 16.1 SB, .275 BA

Rocco is an enigma. He showed great signs of life in 2006 after missing 2005. He's always been able to hit for average and steal bases....until last year when he just could not stay healthy. Sure he's a health risk, but he's going in the 18th round and his projection is the 28th rated OF. He's a great guy to grab if you think there's not much left for you to grab. At the end of the draft a lot of teams find themselves either too dependent on BA and SB or too dependent on RBI and HR. A guy like Baldelli and Milledge for your 3rd OF is great because they can be used to bridge the two. Other guys that do the same are Josh Fields and the next man on our list. If he's healthy you can take the WAY over on those SBs and BA since they're speed influenced and projection systems don't know that too well.

4. Mark Reynolds, 3B (ADP Undrafted)

Projection: 87.7 R, 27.6 HR, 93.2 RBI, 3.8 SB, .278 BA

Like I said, generally at the end of a draft a team is either strong in BA and SB or HR and RBI. It should be no surprise that these stats are correlated. If you're the former than Mark Reynolds is an EXCELLENT player for your team. You can hit take a slight hit on his BA, still wind up being above average there... then the production you're getting in the other four categories is better than say Garrett Atkins, who went oh about 15 rounds earlier. He's a great guy to add if you've drafted Todd Helton. Then let Reynolds take up your utility or 3B spot. The two of them will average out to be: .294/24/93/93/6 from your 1B and 3B spots. That's similar to drafting both Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Gonzalez....who are going in the 8th and 7th round respectively. You just picked up identical production in the 11th and 21st rounds. You can imagine that Todd Helton would be next on this list, but by now you all know he's a sleeper.

Four guys to stay away from:

1. Ichiro Suzuki. He's a -20 RBI, -12 HR OF. Those are below RP levels....he's even more under average ones. His BA is not that good. His name is sandwiched between Rocco Baldelli and Kosuke Fukudome yet he's going in the second round.

2. Mike Lowell. He's a replacement level 3B going in the 10th round thanks to a career year.

3. Brandon Phillips. Read thread.

4. Edgar Renteria. See Mike Lowell

sneakypower · February 9, 2008

I'd keep Braun, Rollins, Berkman, Bedard and Beckett. And to be fair about the BA ranking crap. Beckett was a former #1, Braun #26, Rollins #31, Berkman #13, and Weeks of course #5, Phillips was up to 8....a large because he was a SS at the time.

relax, i was being facetious with that remark.

even if you consider those 5 as the most valuable five players on the list, it's still a tremendous waste to outright drop phillips. he's the 20th most valued player in single-season leagues, and i have no doubt there'll be somebody drooling over the 26 year old in a keeper league. at least try to peddle him and Beckett for Howard or Peavy, get a clear upgrade if you can.

nilodnayr · February 11, 2008

I'd keep Braun, Rollins, Berkman, Bedard and Beckett. And to be fair about the BA ranking crap. Beckett was a former #1, Braun #26, Rollins #31, Berkman #13, and Weeks of course #5, Phillips was up to 8....a large because he was a SS at the time.
relax, i was being facetious with that remark.

even if you consider those 5 as the most valuable five players on the list, it's still a tremendous waste to outright drop phillips. he's the 20th most valued player in single-season leagues, and i have no doubt there'll be somebody drooling over the 26 year old in a keeper league. at least try to peddle him and Beckett for Howard or Peavy, get a clear upgrade if you can.

I had been talking to a guy about Peavy. I'll test his interest in Phillips.

nilodnayr · February 11, 2008

I'd keep Braun, Rollins, Berkman, Bedard and Beckett. And to be fair about the BA ranking crap. Beckett was a former #1, Braun #26, Rollins #31, Berkman #13, and Weeks of course #5, Phillips was up to 8....a large because he was a SS at the time.
relax, i was being facetious with that remark.

even if you consider those 5 as the most valuable five players on the list, it's still a tremendous waste to outright drop phillips. he's the 20th most valued player in single-season leagues, and i have no doubt there'll be somebody drooling over the 26 year old in a keeper league. at least try to peddle him and Beckett for Howard or Peavy, get a clear upgrade if you can.

I had been talking to a guy about Peavy. I'll test his interest in Phillips.

I also sent out a feeler on VMart. The guy who has him as a horrible team. I'm always so frustrated with catchers (even though we only have a 1 catcher league) and their variability. I think Posada will be the biggest disappointment this year. Guys like Soto and Towles are interesting but can be huge busts or I might miss out on them in the draft.

Finally, I sent out feelers to see if the guy who has Utley would be interested in downgrading to Brandon Phillips for an upgrade in the back end of his keepers.

sneakypower · February 11, 2008

so i've got holliday, pujols for sure i'll keep and furcal, hart, phillips, atkins, aramis, manny, justin upton, abreu i have to choose from for my 3rd offensive keeper in a franchise league.

it's 5x5 cats plus K, OBP, SLG as well.

rollins, hanley and reyes certainly will be kept, i'm half tempted to keep furcal. i won the league so i pick last, i'd probably guess jeter and/or tulo get picked before i draft. and with so little in the way of decent hitting SS prospects, i don't really want to risk being with a crappy SS for several seasons.

right now, i'm torn between phillips and furcal. upton i'd love to have for the next several years, but i can probably take him a few rounds into the draft.

johan and one of putz, joba, buccholz, myers, gallardo, wainwright, corpas, valverde to choose for my 2nd keeper pitcher.

i might go with putz, haven't thought about it a whole lot.

nilodnayr · February 11, 2008

so i've got holliday, pujols for sure i'll keep and furcal, hart, phillips, atkins, aramis, manny, justin upton, abreu i have to choose from for my 3rd offensive keeper in a franchise league.

it's 5x5 cats plus K, OBP, SLG as well.

rollins, hanley and reyes certainly will be kept, i'm half tempted to keep furcal. i won the league so i pick last, i'd probably guess jeter and/or tulo get picked before i draft. and with so little in the way of decent hitting SS prospects, i don't really want to risk being with a crappy SS for several seasons.

right now, i'm torn between phillips and furcal. upton i'd love to have for the next several years, but i can probably take him a few rounds into the draft.

johan and one of putz, joba, buccholz, myers, gallardo, wainwright, corpas, valverde to choose for my 2nd keeper pitcher.

i might go with putz, haven't thought about it a whole lot.

Furcal is going to go under the radar this year, I don't think you need to waste a keeper spot on him. You should be able to snag him a few rounds later. I'd say Upton would go before Furcal, but then again you have K's as a category so his value takes a hit.

My personal preference would be gallardo over putz, but I don't like keeping closers, even one as good as Putz. Myers is probably going to be a good sleeper-ish starter, but I'd be worried about his IP going from 198 to 69 back up to 200 or so. (As of now) Joba is going to start the year starting but will be under strict IP limits and might miss out on some wins while hes starting and eventually move to the pen about 2/3rds or so into the season. Cashman knows the 30 IP rule and Joba only threw 112 last year, so he won't exceed 140 this year. Buchholz threw 148 last year and with Schilling out hes got a spot open, but hes not in high enough demand to need to be kept. Definitely pass on corpas and valverde.

sneakypower · February 11, 2008

a big part of it is that it's a franchise league now, where we'll keep our whole roster from now on. i won the league last year, so i wouldn't be too opposed to making myself less competitive this year if it means i have a terrific core. that's the only reason i'm even considering justin upton, is to get his 30/30 seasons down the road. and the only reason i'd think of keeping gallardo.

phillips/furcal and gallardo/putz is what i've narrowed it down to. i'm leaning phillips and putz.

i might just target cano, weeks, kendrick in the draft and trade phillips if i get any of them. hardy drew and escobar will be my fallback options at SS i guess. i'll be awful in steals i'm sure but i can pick it up elsewhere.

nilodnayr · February 11, 2008

a big part of it is that it's a franchise league now, where we'll keep our whole roster from now on. i won the league last year, so i wouldn't be too opposed to making myself less competitive this year if it means i have a terrific core. that's the only reason i'm even considering justin upton, is to get his 30/30 seasons down the road. and the only reason i'd think of keeping gallardo.

phillips/furcal and gallardo/putz is what i've narrowed it down to. i'm leaning phillips and putz.

i might just target cano, weeks, kendrick in the draft and trade phillips if i get any of them. hardy drew and escobar will be my fallback options at SS i guess. i'll be awful in steals i'm sure but i can pick it up elsewhere.

I'm [expletive], I read Justin Upton, and thought BJ. So if its dynasty, why do you need to worry about who to keep and who not to? Or is it going into dynasty next offseason and there will be a draft this season?

I think JUSTIN Upton is a guy you should be able to pick up decently into the draft. Hes going to be a liability this year and possibly next, so unless you have a few teams that are going to punt this season for future seasons, don't waste a keeper on him. I'm assuming your payouts are something like top 3 or so. If thats the case, then a dynasty league is very similar to regular baseball. The top 25% get into the playoffs. If you don't have a chance of being in the top 25% (ie. get a payout) then you should be completely rebuilding, ala Beane. Playing it both ways (ie Furcal and Upton) is just going to make you wind up slightly out of the money.

Rob · February 12, 2008

Mind if I piggyback onto this thread too?

Standard 5x5 league, 12 teams, we get four keepers... and I managed to put together one hell of an offense last season. (LF, CF, RF instead of 3 OF)

Mauer

Pujols

BJ Upton

Rollins

ARod

Manny

Ellsbury

Vlad

Hafner

My pitching staff is fairly weak, but holds a few gems in Felix and Lincecum. I don't think either of those two is in mortal danger of going in the first few rounds of our redraft, so I'm not gonna bother asking about them... But how the hell do you pick four guys off that offense? Pujols and ARod are gimmes, but who else?

nilodnayr · February 12, 2008

Mind if I piggyback onto this thread too?

Standard 5x5 league, 12 teams, we get four keepers... and I managed to put together one hell of an offense last season. (LF, CF, RF instead of 3 OF)

Mauer
Pujols
BJ Upton
Rollins
ARod
Manny
Ellsbury
Vlad
Hafner

My pitching staff is fairly weak, but holds a few gems in Felix and Lincecum. I don't think either of those two is in mortal danger of going in the first few rounds of our redraft, so I'm not gonna bother asking about them... But how the hell do you pick four guys off that offense? Pujols and ARod are gimmes, but who else?

Rollins is a definite. Upton gains a lot of value in your league because you do separate out CF. Even still though, I was hugely on the Upton bandwagon at this time last year, but if I had him now I'd be selling high. His batted ball data is really unsustainable, very very very few players strike out that much and have a batting average that doesn't hurt you. I would try to package him with another guy you aren't going to keep to a team that has a weaker 3/4 keeper spot to upgrade. Try to get a Peavy/Santana, a Martin/VMart, or a less risky CF. I'm sure there are teams out there that would love Vlad, Manny, and/or Upton. Thats just my opinion on Upton, though. It was only his age 22 season, and he does have a history of striking out while having a good average. But that 400 BABIP and 20% HR/FB can't be ignored. I think a lot of the projection systems have it right with his average coming down to the 270s, homers coming down to the teens, but steals up to the 30s with a full year of ABs.

Maybe Meph can do some magic and show how that compares to other CFs for you.

sneakypower · February 12, 2008

That's right, we're keeping 5 players (3+2) this year and henceforth it will be a franchise league.

I cooled on the thought of keeping Upton, because while I think he'll be taken incredibly early compared to standard drafts, there are several other options for high upside young players I'll target if I lose out on him: Chris Young, Longoria, Bruce, Pie, Maybin, Gomez, etc. I was floored by his Bill James projection most of all .350/.500 20/15 this season.

I'll probably opt for Phillips and Putz over Gallardo and Furcal.

nilodnayr · February 12, 2008

That's right, we're keeping 5 players (3+2) this year and henceforth it will be a franchise league.

I cooled on the thought of keeping Upton, because while I think he'll be taken incredibly early compared to standard drafts, there are several other options for high upside young players I'll target if I lose out on him: Chris Young, Longoria, Bruce, Pie, Maybin, Gomez, etc. I was floored by his Bill James projection most of all .350/.500 20/15 this season.

I'll probably opt for Phillips and Putz over Gallardo and Furcal.

I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal.

And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else.

Keeper Conundrum

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