Keeper Conundrum

[nilodnayr]

Was offered Santana for Philips and Bedard. Sounds pretty good to me. I'm going to try to upgrade to Utley first.

 

i can see Johan being the most valuable player in fantasy 5x5 this year. i'd jump on that right away.

 

I pulled the trigger. I was trying to shore up some other trades in the mean time, but had waited nearly a week to respond to the guy who was offering Santana so I decided I couldn't sit on it any longer.

 

Kinda funny I'm trading both Phillips and Bedard in the same deal because I acquired them in the same deal midseason (for Holliday), Holliday went on a tear after I traded him but I needed the points from Bedard and Phillips to lock up 2nd place in my league.

 

Now my keepers are

 

Santana

Rollins

Braun

Berkman

Beckett

----------

Manny

Smoltz

Pena

 

My sights are now set on VMart, but the owner is really bad at responding.

 

And now hes backing out...awesome.

[nilodnayr]

And an owner now does not want to trade Howard for Berkman and Bedard because he doesn't see Bedard as a real upgrade over Carmona.

](*,)

[sneakypower]

well, other than at least 60 K and better ERA/WHIP, he's right...

[sneakypower]

I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal.

Putz will be the better pitcher this year by 2 roto pts or so, but given its a dynasty league, YoGa makes much more sense than a 32 year old closer. Plus there's the benefit that if he faces surgery or some terrible injury, I'll have consolation in Cubs winning the division easily.

[nilodnayr]

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_5.gif

 

So, I finally did the work and figured out Utley, Upton, Kinsler, Cano, Roberts, and Figgins are going to be kept. That leaves Johnson, Weeks, and Kendrick, Uggla, Polanco, and Kent as suitable players. And we have MI though, so I need to be cognizant of that.

 

I think I'm going to keep Phillips as I haven't found anyone really interested in him. I'd be worried about missing out on Johnson or Kendrick and having to pick 2 from the rest of the pathetic group. If I find that Johnson and Kent are still available in the late teens in the draft, I'll grab them and try to trade Phillips early in the season.

[nilodnayr]

Also, keep an eye on the 2b situation in Colorado. Right now Jeff Baker has the upper hand...

 

Here are his Projections Avg/HR/SB/R/RBI (adjusted to 600 ABs)

 

PECOTA

.284/28/4/89/100

Bill James

.273/24/5/77/93

Zips

.275/22/7/67/91

 

That'd be pretty nice production from 2b off the waiver wire.

[sneakypower]

that situation's even murkier than minnesota's CF vacancy. what do they have, 5 guys vying for the spot with Nix, Stewart, Baker, Young, Barmes? what a mess.

 

as for Phillips, I know the projections are down on him, but I'm still bullish. they're factoring in the last 3 years of performance with which the first two were highly unimpressive before a breakout and I don't think they properly weight the breakout year. Carlos Pena is another example of this, where I like him to be a .550 slugger this year, and he's floating around .500 or slightly less in the few I've seen. I'll go to war with these two guys, they're too talented to regress that much.

[Rob]

I have officially traded away all of my previous keepers for new keepers and draft picks.

 

What was ARod, Pujols, Rollins, Vlad, and the 12th and 13th picks is now going to be...

 

Braun, Santana, Peavy, Papelbon, and the 3rd, 4th, 7th, 12th, and 13th picks. With those 5 picks, I should be able to get BJ Upton, Cole Hamels, Victor Martinez, John Smoltz, and Corey Hart. That's a pretty good start.

[nilodnayr]

I have officially traded away all of my previous keepers for new keepers and draft picks.

 

What was ARod, Pujols, Rollins, Vlad, and the 12th and 13th picks is now going to be...

 

Braun, Santana, Peavy, Papelbon, and the 3rd, 4th, 7th, 12th, and 13th picks. With those 5 picks, I should be able to get BJ Upton, Cole Hamels, Victor Martinez, John Smoltz, and Corey Hart. That's a pretty good start.

 

I hate my league and love yours. No one trades. There hasn't been one offseason trade yet. The whole santana for phillips and bedard fiasco (other guy offered the trade, I accepted and then he took it back) prompted most of the league to respond that we should just stop offseason trading. Its pathetic. In the first year of the league there were like 2 trades the entire season. Last year there were probably 15 or so. If I proposed a trade of draft picks I'm afraid a petition might start to have me thrown out of the league.

 

Well enough of that rant...that should make for a really fun draft day for you!!! But at the same time be mindful of the affect on your strategy at the end of the draft. You aren't going be able to partake in the last 3 rounds so take your big upside guys a bit earlier.

[nilodnayr]

that situation's even murkier than minnesota's CF vacancy. what do they have, 5 guys vying for the spot with Nix, Stewart, Baker, Young, Barmes? what a mess.

 

as for Phillips, I know the projections are down on him, but I'm still bullish. they're factoring in the last 3 years of performance with which the first two were highly unimpressive before a breakout and I don't think they properly weight the breakout year. Carlos Pena is another example of this, where I like him to be a .550 slugger this year, and he's floating around .500 or slightly less in the few I've seen. I'll go to war with these two guys, they're too talented to regress that much.

 

I whole heartedly agree. Mephs spreadsheet, while incredibly awesome, is based entirely on the premise of ZIPs, James, and PECOTA. They aren't dogma, so adjust as you see differ. I'm a big Phillips fan and think he'll out perform his projections which is part of the reason why I'm keeping him.

 

P.S. I also picked Pena off the waiver wire as soon as he got the regular gig in TB. Same with Braun. Those two moves alone were the difference between finishing 2nd and 5th.

[sneakypower]

OK so I just drafted for my keeper league turned dynasty league and am estatic with the results. 1st 5 rounds of the draft were for the keepers, 3 offense & 2 pitchers. Rounds shown in parentheses, keepers denoted by italices:

 

C - Joe Mauer(6), Brian McCann (10)

1B - Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena (12)

2B - Brandon Phillips

SS - Rafael Furcal (8), Stephen Drew (23)

3B - Ryan Zimmerman (9), Alex Gordon (14)

LF - Matt Holliday, Carlos Gomez (17)

CF - Chris B. Young (7), Cameron Maybin (15)

RF - Brad Hawpe (20), Jeremy Hermida (13)

 

SP - Johan Santana, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Lincecum (11), Matt Cain (16), Clay Buchholz (18), Dustin McGowan (21)

RP - Joakim Soria (19), Brian Wilson (22)

 

I was thrilled to have Lincecum, McGowan, Hawpe, Soria fall as far as they did. McCann I'll probably trade for a kings ransom to the poor sap that drafted Johjima. I'm leaning towards doing a Cain for Raffy Soriano swap, since I'd rather not have two Giant pitchers on the same roster, with the league counting W & L, those categories will be too badly sabotaged. And a top flight closer is the only thing I seem to be missing.

 

As it stands, my team entered into the adjusted league settings in Meph's spreadsheet I'm projected for 92 pts- 1st place by a scant margin. But the oldest player on my roster is 30, so I have a good core to start with for the next few seasons.

[nilodnayr]

OK so I just drafted for my keeper league turned dynasty league and am estatic with the results. 1st 5 rounds of the draft were for the keepers, 3 offense & 2 pitchers. Rounds shown in parentheses, keepers denoted by italices:

 

C - Joe Mauer(6), Brian McCann (10)

1B - Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena (12)

2B - Brandon Phillips

SS - Rafael Furcal (8), Stephen Drew (23)

3B - Ryan Zimmerman (9), Alex Gordon (14)

LF - Matt Holliday, Carlos Gomez (17)

CF - Chris B. Young (7), Cameron Maybin (15)

RF - Brad Hawpe (20), Jeremy Hermida (13)

 

SP - Johan Santana, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Lincecum (11), Matt Cain (16), Clay Buchholz (18), Dustin McGowan (21)

RP - Joakim Soria (19), Brian Wilson (22)

 

I was thrilled to have Lincecum, McGowan, Hawpe, Soria fall as far as they did. McCann I'll probably trade for a kings ransom to the poor sap that drafted Johjima. I'm leaning towards doing a Cain for Raffy Soriano swap, since I'd rather not have two Giant pitchers on the same roster, with the league counting W & L, those categories will be too badly sabotaged. And a top flight closer is the only thing I seem to be missing.

 

As it stands, my team entered into the adjusted league settings in Meph's spreadsheet I'm projected for 92 pts- 1st place by a scant margin. But the oldest player on my roster is 30, so I have a good core to start with for the next few seasons.

 

How in the sam hill did McCann fall 5 rounds below his ADP in a 2 catcher league? Pena fell 7 rounds, Hawpe fell over 10, and basically your entire pitching staff averaged 3 rounds below ADP. Did you draft against retards?

[sneakypower]

No, it's just a standard C, 1b, 2b, ss, 3b, lf, cf, rf, util offense and sp, sp, sp, rp, rp, p, p pitching. McCann, Pena, Drew are just bench players on my roster (Pena will likely DH but you get the point).

 

I can't say why some of the players were ignored, but the ADPs were definitely affected by the dynasty league setting, only being a 10-team league and also that the categories aren't 5x5:

 

R, HR, RBI, SB, K, BA, OBP, SLG & W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP

 

I'm guessing Pena fell because of the strikeouts and fears of regression? RF is incredibly deep, but Hawpe slipping that far was a big shock, and I don't think catchers were properly valued. I already had drafted Mauer, but I didn't want another owner to luck into McCann with a late pick. He's great trade bait for me now.

 

As for the dynasty part, I had kept Gallardo for lack of better options, so he was technically "drafted" within the first 5 rounds, as were 20 other pitchers, many of who don't normally warrant such draft position. So that played a part in other players slipping below where you'd accept them. I had a few gambles in waiting on guys pay off well, and a couple didn't. I lost out on Kemp and Bonderman by waiting too long.

[Rob]

I have officially traded away all of my previous keepers for new keepers and draft picks.

 

What was ARod, Pujols, Rollins, Vlad, and the 12th and 13th picks is now going to be...

 

Braun, Santana, Peavy, Papelbon, and the 3rd, 4th, 7th, 12th, and 13th picks. With those 5 picks, I should be able to get BJ Upton, Cole Hamels, Victor Martinez, John Smoltz, and Corey Hart. That's a pretty good start.

 

I hate my league and love yours. No one trades. There hasn't been one offseason trade yet. The whole santana for phillips and bedard fiasco (other guy offered the trade, I accepted and then he took it back) prompted most of the league to respond that we should just stop offseason trading. Its pathetic. In the first year of the league there were like 2 trades the entire season. Last year there were probably 15 or so. If I proposed a trade of draft picks I'm afraid a petition might start to have me thrown out of the league.

 

Well enough of that rant...that should make for a really fun draft day for you!!! But at the same time be mindful of the affect on your strategy at the end of the draft. You aren't going be able to partake in the last 3 rounds so take your big upside guys a bit earlier.

 

Actually, i'm working on trading some excess draft picks to grab some mid-rounders. I've got it timed out so that I should be the one starting the run on pitching, and I should be able to grab King Felix, Lincecum, and Hill in the span of a few picks... Santana, Peavy, Smoltz, Hamels, Hill, Linceum, Felix... then maybe grab Pedro and Liriano the next round.

 

When it's all said and done, I intend to have a pitching monopoly which I'll use to lord over everybody.

 

And before the next season, new rules will pop up preventing offseason trading and especially the trading of draft picks.

[nilodnayr]

Son of a B, I was trying to trade for Hart, but the other really smart manager in my league is going to get him before me...hes trading Pence and Byrnes for him. His keepers will be:

 

HanRam

Wright

Fielder

Crawford

Hart

 

Thats a nice way to start off the draft.

[nilodnayr]

Son of a B, I was trying to trade for Hart, but the other really smart manager in my league is going to get him before me...hes trading Pence and Byrnes for him. His keepers will be:

 

HanRam

Wright

Fielder

Crawford

Hart

 

Thats a nice way to start off the draft.

 

Well, it looks like that guy isn't going to pull off the Hart trade so I've swooped in.

 

After much back and forth he proposed (first 5 rounds are keeper rounds)

 

Hart, 8th round, 10th round for Manny, Bedard, 24th and 25th round.

 

I came back with upping the 8th and 10th to 7th and 9th. So I'm sure we'll come to an agreement soon.

 

Funny part is that this whole thing was me trying to trade one guy I was going to keep and players I wasn't going to keep to improve my team. I was never planning on keeping Manny and Bedard!!! I guess now I'm going to chose Hart and throw Berkman back into the draft. Beckett's back has me worried, but not that worried.

[nilodnayr]

And I just got turned down on this offer. I was going to give up Berkman for the last pick in the 9th round(first 5 rounds are keepers)...the guy is keeping Frenchy instead. Owners in my league are so [expletive].

[Tyrant]

And I just got turned down on this offer. I was going to give up Berkman for the last pick in the 9th round(first 5 rounds are keepers)...the guy is keeping Frenchy instead. Owners in my league are so [expletive].

 

Son of a B, I was trying to trade for Hart, but the other really smart manager in my league is going to get him before me...hes trading Pence and Byrnes for him. His keepers will be:

 

HanRam

Wright

Fielder

Crawford

Hart

 

Thats a nice way to start off the draft.

 

Son of a B, I was trying to trade for Hart, but the other really smart manager in my league is going to get him before me...hes trading Pence and Byrnes for him. His keepers will be:

 

HanRam

Wright

Fielder

Crawford

Hart

 

Thats a nice way to start off the draft.

 

Well, it looks like that guy isn't going to pull off the Hart trade so I've swooped in.

 

After much back and forth he proposed (first 5 rounds are keeper rounds)

 

Hart, 8th round, 10th round for Manny, Bedard, 24th and 25th round.

 

I came back with upping the 8th and 10th to 7th and 9th. So I'm sure we'll come to an agreement soon.

 

Funny part is that this whole thing was me trying to trade one guy I was going to keep and players I wasn't going to keep to improve my team. I was never planning on keeping Manny and Bedard!!! I guess now I'm going to chose Hart and throw Berkman back into the draft. Beckett's back has me worried, but not that worried.

 

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