Keeper Conundrum

[Rob]

That's right, we're keeping 5 players (3+2) this year and henceforth it will be a franchise league.

 

I cooled on the thought of keeping Upton, because while I think he'll be taken incredibly early compared to standard drafts, there are several other options for high upside young players I'll target if I lose out on him: Chris Young, Longoria, Bruce, Pie, Maybin, Gomez, etc. I was floored by his Bill James projection most of all .350/.500 20/15 this season.

 

I'll probably opt for Phillips and Putz over Gallardo and Furcal.

 

I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal.

 

And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else.

 

It's too easy to grab saves off the waiver wire to waste a keeper selection on any closer. Hell, I grabbed Putz in the 15th round last year. There's always somebody out there...

[sneakypower]

That's right, we're keeping 5 players (3+2) this year and henceforth it will be a franchise league.

 

I cooled on the thought of keeping Upton, because while I think he'll be taken incredibly early compared to standard drafts, there are several other options for high upside young players I'll target if I lose out on him: Chris Young, Longoria, Bruce, Pie, Maybin, Gomez, etc. I was floored by his Bill James projection most of all .350/.500 20/15 this season.

 

I'll probably opt for Phillips and Putz over Gallardo and Furcal.

 

I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal.

 

And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else.

 

It's too easy to grab saves off the waiver wire to waste a keeper selection on any closer. Hell, I grabbed Putz in the 15th round last year. There's always somebody out there...

Your league is conspiring to let you win.

 

At any rate, I'd keep Pujols, Arod, Rollins (3 top-6 players??) and Upton. His K rate should drop by a reasonable amount, from 32.5% to like 27%. .275 seems likely, which isn't a problem with BA stalwart Pujols and he'll have 20 hr 30 sb on top of that, maybe more. Hitting in the 3 spot of a dynamic young lineup he should also have healthy run production stats too. The 2nd best 2B in fantasy baseball this year.

 

That'll probably be the best IF ever comprised in fantasy baseball.

[Rob]

That's right, we're keeping 5 players (3+2) this year and henceforth it will be a franchise league.

 

I cooled on the thought of keeping Upton, because while I think he'll be taken incredibly early compared to standard drafts, there are several other options for high upside young players I'll target if I lose out on him: Chris Young, Longoria, Bruce, Pie, Maybin, Gomez, etc. I was floored by his Bill James projection most of all .350/.500 20/15 this season.

 

I'll probably opt for Phillips and Putz over Gallardo and Furcal.

 

I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal.

 

And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else.

 

It's too easy to grab saves off the waiver wire to waste a keeper selection on any closer. Hell, I grabbed Putz in the 15th round last year. There's always somebody out there...

Your league is conspiring to let you win.

 

At any rate, I'd keep Pujols, Arod, Rollins (3 top-6 players??) and Upton. His K rate should drop by a reasonable amount, from 32.5% to like 27%. .275 seems likely, which isn't a problem with BA stalwart Pujols and he'll have 20 hr 30 sb on top of that, maybe more. Hitting in the 3 spot of a dynamic young lineup he should also have healthy run production stats too. The 2nd best 2B in fantasy baseball this year.

 

That'll probably be the best IF ever comprised in fantasy baseball.

 

I think 2B is gonna be a bit easier to find somebody to approximate Uptons production than Vlad in RF or Mauer at C. I'm leaning towards Vlad at the moment.

[nilodnayr]

Was offered Santana for Philips and Bedard. Sounds pretty good to me. I'm going to try to upgrade to Utley first.

[sneakypower]

Was offered Santana for Philips and Bedard. Sounds pretty good to me. I'm going to try to upgrade to Utley first.

 

i can see Johan being the most valuable player in fantasy 5x5 this year. i'd jump on that right away.

[sneakypower]

I think 2B is gonna be a bit easier to find somebody to approximate Uptons production than Vlad in RF or Mauer at C. I'm leaning towards Vlad at the moment.

 

average starter C should be roughly .286/59/15/72/3

average starter 2B should be roughly .284/89/17/76/13

average starter RF should be roughly .290/85/22/90/11

 

basically a cumulative avg of the projs:

mauer .314/73/11/70/9

upton .281/86/18/71/29

vlad .317/94/29/109/8

 

talking about how these players fare vs. the average startable guys at their positions (i.e. ~pence, posada, kinsler):

 

mauer +0.028/+14/-4/-2/+6

upton -0.003/-3/+1/-5/+16

vlad +0.027/+9/+7/+19/-3

 

vlad does look like the best bet to be largest upgrade over the midtier guys, though i like upton to have much better RBI totals than the projections.

[Rob]

I think 2B is gonna be a bit easier to find somebody to approximate Uptons production than Vlad in RF or Mauer at C. I'm leaning towards Vlad at the moment.

 

average starter C should be roughly .286/59/15/72/3

average starter 2B should be roughly .284/89/17/76/13

average starter RF should be roughly .290/85/22/90/11

 

basically a cumulative avg of the projs:

mauer .314/73/11/70/9

upton .281/86/18/71/29

vlad .317/94/29/109/8

 

talking about how these players fare vs. the average startable guys at their positions (i.e. ~pence, posada, kinsler):

 

mauer +0.028/+14/-4/-2/+6

upton -0.003/-3/+1/-5/+16

vlad +0.027/+9/+7/+19/-3

 

vlad does look like the best bet to be largest upgrade over the midtier guys, though i like upton to have much better RBI totals than the projections.

 

I like Upton too, but I think he's gonna be overrated in most drafts. Considering I'm gonna have to start from scratch on pitching, I think I'm gonna try to save most draft picks for that...

 

If all goes according to plan, I should get one of Soto/Towles at C, Weeks at 2B, Dunn in LF, and Swisher in CF... plus the random best hitter still available for UTIL. Hopefully, I can use some of my earlier picks to grab Felix, Hill, and Lincecum... and I'll feel pretty good.

[sneakypower]

I like Upton too, but I think he's gonna be overrated in most drafts. Considering I'm gonna have to start from scratch on pitching, I think I'm gonna try to save most draft picks for that...

 

If all goes according to plan, I should get one of Soto/Towles at C, Weeks at 2B, Dunn in LF, and Swisher in CF... plus the random best hitter still available for UTIL. Hopefully, I can use some of my earlier picks to grab Felix, Hill, and Lincecum... and I'll feel pretty good.

wowsers...those 4 guys might be the only way to do poorly in BA whilst having studs Pujols, Arod and Vlad on your team. On first glance, it seems that mix of players would have a ridiculous surplus in HR/RBI and you might suffer in other cats like SB, BA needlessly. But that's purely a subjective reaction, I might be way off base.

[Rob]

I like Upton too, but I think he's gonna be overrated in most drafts. Considering I'm gonna have to start from scratch on pitching, I think I'm gonna try to save most draft picks for that...

 

If all goes according to plan, I should get one of Soto/Towles at C, Weeks at 2B, Dunn in LF, and Swisher in CF... plus the random best hitter still available for UTIL. Hopefully, I can use some of my earlier picks to grab Felix, Hill, and Lincecum... and I'll feel pretty good.

wowsers...those 4 guys might be the only way to do poorly in BA whilst having studs Pujols, Arod and Vlad on your team. On first glance, it seems that mix of players would have a ridiculous surplus in HR/RBI and you might suffer in other cats like SB, BA needlessly. But that's purely a subjective reaction, I might be way off base.

 

I did the math... I'm a pretty sure bet to place 1st in R, HR, RBI... mid-range in BA, and even in the top half in SB. If I can put together at least an average pitching staff, I'm in real good shape as far as making the playoffs (yeah, this is a H2H league).

[nilodnayr]

Was offered Santana for Philips and Bedard. Sounds pretty good to me. I'm going to try to upgrade to Utley first.

 

i can see Johan being the most valuable player in fantasy 5x5 this year. i'd jump on that right away.

 

Looks like the Utley guy and the Howard guy are balking. I've proposed Manny and Pena for VMart (his team is horrible) and might go up to Manny and Berkman/Beckett if I have to. I'm really dead set on VMart and willing to overpay since I won't be able to keep those guys anyway.

 

After trading Phillips and Bedard for Santana that would leave me at

 

Santana

Braun

Rollins

VMart

Berkman/Beckett

[Rob]

Nevermind, I solved my problem...

 

I traded Vlad for Crawford and there was an exchange of draft picks... I'm now going 12, 37, 42, 55, 60, 61, and 66. That works fine for me, as I always overdraft guys I find underrated. Now I can just take them around where they're likely to go.

 

Pujols

Arod

Crawford

Rollins

 

That's a pretty good start.

[nilodnayr]

Nevermind, I solved my problem...

 

I traded Vlad for Crawford and there was an exchange of draft picks... I'm now going 12, 37, 42, 55, 60, 61, and 66. That works fine for me, as I always overdraft guys I find underrated. Now I can just take them around where they're likely to go.

 

Pujols

Arod

Crawford

Rollins

 

That's a pretty good start.

 

Not too shabby.

[sneakypower]

this is a little interesting, as a very rough form of keeper rankings.

 

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2008/player_rankings_mock_1.php

[Tyrant]

I guess I'll just jump on - we can make this the thread where Meph tells us who to keep.

 

I'm in a 5 x 5 league with OBP replacing BA. We get to keep six players. Here are my options for keepers:

 

Ryan Howard

Ryan Braun

Jose Reyes

David Ortiz (we have a Util spot)

BJ Upton

Cole Hamels

Roy Oswalt

Rich Hill

 

The first four are locks, but I need to pick two of Upton, Hamels, Hill and Oswalt. Any suggestions?

[sneakypower]

Upton and Hamels for sure.

 

Also, this is a little interesting, as a very rough form of keeper rankings.

 

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2008/player_rankings_mock_1.php

[Rob]

I guess I'll just jump on - we can make this the thread where Meph tells us who to keep.

 

I'm in a 5 x 5 league with OBP replacing BA. We get to keep six players. Here are my options for keepers:

 

Ryan Howard

Ryan Braun

Jose Reyes

David Ortiz (we have a Util spot)

BJ Upton

Cole Hamels

Roy Oswalt

Rich Hill

 

The first four are locks, but I need to pick two of Upton, Hamels, Hill and Oswalt. Any suggestions?

 

I love Hill as much as the next guy, but he has no business being on that list for this coming season. His ADP is somewhere in the 120's. (Whereas the first round of your redraft is gonna essentially start at 72, assuming you have 12 teams)

 

Definately keep Upton, but Hamels and Oswalt is kinda a tossup. I'd lean Hamels, personally.

[sneakypower]

Oswalt's strikeout numbers keep dropping lower and lower every season and he's playing on a really bad team. I go with Hamels every day of the week.

[Rob]

Oswalt's strikeout numbers keep dropping lower and lower every season and he's playing on a really bad team. I go with Hamels every day of the week.

 

Still, he's pitched well in excess of 200 innings in five of the last six seasons, his highest ERA in that span being a 3.49. Hamels can be much better, but Oswalt has a lot less variance.

[Tyrant]

Upton and Hamels for sure.

 

Also, this is a little interesting, as a very rough form of keeper rankings.

 

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2008/player_rankings_mock_1.php

 

I like Upton for the positional value, but his strikeout numbers make me nervous. I'm afraid that his batting average is going to crash once his BABIP comes back down to Earth.

[sneakypower]

I wouldn't be too nervous about it. His K rate will also come down a reasonable amount to lessen the sting of his BABIP regression. i wouldn't expect less than a .280 avg from him this year. a bigger concern is that he loses value after this year after being stripped of 2B eligibility. but by then he'll likely be a 25/40 player, which plays well at any position.

[Tyrant]

I wouldn't be too nervous about it. His K rate will also come down a reasonable amount to lessen the sting of his BABIP regression. i wouldn't expect less than a .280 avg from him this year. a bigger concern is that he loses value after this year after being stripped of 2B eligibility. but by then he'll likely be a 25/40 player, which plays well at any position.

 

That makes sense. I guess I'll go with Upton and Hamels.

 

On another note, does anyone know of a place that lets you get customized rankings based on your league settings? I just want a list of players I can paste in, and then tweak to my own liking.

[sneakypower]

I don't think any free ones exist, but I might develop a web app this summer if I don't get overburdened with other projects.

[nilodnayr]

I'd go with Upton for sure and Hamels as well. But I would pick a couple SP in the first few rounds of the draft because Hamels is a huge injury risk. Hes got the upside but you need to protect yourself. Most likely on average everyone is keeping roughly 2 pitchers so I Hamels goes down you'll be in a bad spot with your rotation compared to everyone else.

 

Can you trade in the offseason? Look to see if you can upgrade.

[Tyrant]

I'd go with Upton for sure and Hamels as well. But I would pick a couple SP in the first few rounds of the draft because Hamels is a huge injury risk. Hes got the upside but you need to protect yourself. Most likely on average everyone is keeping roughly 2 pitchers so I Hamels goes down you'll be in a bad spot with your rotation compared to everyone else.

 

Can you trade in the offseason? Look to see if you can upgrade.

 

We can make trades. I guess I could package Hamels and a draft choice to upgrade, but I'm not sure who is a sure-fire significant upgrade, other than Peavy or Santana. Maybe Webb, maybe Bedard. But anyone else has as many questions as Hamels, and probably not the same upside.

[nilodnayr]

Was offered Santana for Philips and Bedard. Sounds pretty good to me. I'm going to try to upgrade to Utley first.

 

i can see Johan being the most valuable player in fantasy 5x5 this year. i'd jump on that right away.

 

I pulled the trigger. I was trying to shore up some other trades in the mean time, but had waited nearly a week to respond to the guy who was offering Santana so I decided I couldn't sit on it any longer.

 

Kinda funny I'm trading both Phillips and Bedard in the same deal because I acquired them in the same deal midseason (for Holliday), Holliday went on a tear after I traded him but I needed the points from Bedard and Phillips to lock up 2nd place in my league.

 

Now my keepers are

 

Santana

Rollins

Braun

Berkman

Beckett

----------

Manny

Smoltz

Pena

 

My sights are now set on VMart, but the owner is really bad at responding.