Cameron to the Brewers

[haltz]

I'm not following you at all unfortunately. I don't see how those numbers you posted place Marquis and Capuano on different ends of that spectrum.

 

I'm saying that Marquis' career DIPS numbers are worse, and that those guys were hurt by defense in XBH. I was sort of joking, but most balls to Braun's right go for extra bases, for example. Bill Hall was bad in CF, etc.

[UK1679666180]

I'm not following you at all unfortunately. I don't see how those numbers you posted place Marquis and Capuano on different ends of that spectrum.

 

I'm saying that Marquis' career DIPS numbers are worse, and that those guys were hurt by defense in XBH. I was sort of joking, but most balls to Braun's right go for extra bases, for example. Bill Hall was bad in CF, etc.

 

As far as Marquis and Capuano:

 

28% of the ball in play (minus XBH) for Capuano turned into singles, 21.8% for Marquis, that's huge. If Marquis would've had that 28%, he would've allowed 31 more singles.

 

While XBH are somewhat determined by defense, they are determined more by the hitter hitting a hard line drive. Most doubles, TR, and HRs aren't park related or caused by a weak defense to the point where it turns a good pitcher bad.

 

I'll concede singles as far as DIPS, but people are lying to themselves if they think luck/bad defense is the main reason why pitchers allow DBs and TRs.

[haltz]

Yeah, I didn't turn that into a rate.

 

I think you are underestimating how much bad corner infield defense, and OF play could affect that. Park and pitcher tendencies do have something to do with it as well. There's an obvious tradeoff by being a FB or GB pitcher (and in that sense it's a skill).

 

Where's Meph? I want some numbers on SLGBIP.

[UK1679666180]

It could impact it, but how much, it's still going to be a well hit line drive whether it gets by Braun or is knocked down by Rolen.

 

Same thing with line drive in OF gaps, it shows the obvious weakness in stats.

 

They're not as valid as they should be w/out factoring PBP data.

 

Like I said, XBHs are more likely to be well hit balls compared to singles and that's what it comes down to for me.

 

If a pitcher is giving up XBHs at a high ratio, that's more on him than anything else.

[Ender]

Capuano's ISO was better last year than the year before so it is hard to blame the extra base hits on the defense. It was mostly the singles and the fact the bullpen let in 16 of 25 inherited runners on him.

[XZero771679666304]

Except that Marquis' numbers (both last year and career) are comparable to or better than Capuano, Suppan and Bush's.

Check the post above yours.

 

And since none of them are Brandon Webb out there, they will probably give up more hits.

Flyball pitchers give up less hits than groundball pitchers.

 

Yeah, it was late and I was pretty much talking out my ass.

 

The sad thing is that I knew what I was saying was wrong. I guess I was just trying to be argumentative.

[CubinNY]

It could impact it, but how much, it's still going to be a well hit line drive whether it gets by Braun or is knocked down by Rolen.

 

Same thing with line drive in OF gaps, it shows the obvious weakness in stats.

 

They're not as valid as they should be w/out factoring PBP data.

 

Like I said, XBHs are more likely to be well hit balls compared to singles and that's what it comes down to for me.

 

If a pitcher is giving up XBHs at a high ratio, that's more on him than anything else.

Haltz, you're making way, way, way, way too much too much of a stretch here with the defense and park factors. Listen to UK, he knows what he's talking about.

 

Although I don't really buy park factors as a useful metric for much of anything outside of Colorado and San Diego, Wrigley was a much better hitting environment than Miller in 2007. Miller pretty much played neutral while Wrigley was a hitter's paradise, so to speak.

 

The Cubs had 94 errors while the Brewers had 109. The difference in FP was a miniscule .002.

[haltz]

Haltz, you're making way, way, way, way too much too much of a stretch here with the defense and park factors. Listen to UK, he knows what he's talking about.

Park factors are useful and not just at the extremes, and FP% is not a good way to judge defense. I'm not really going overboard here, or anything "way"*4.

 

Anyway, I know he knows what he's talking about. We've had this conversation before. I'd like to see some numbers and I'm curious about SLGBIP in general.

 

We do know the Brewers defense was really bad, and the DIPS numbers are meaningful.

[XZero771679666304]

Haltz, you're making way, way, way, way too much too much of a stretch here with the defense and park factors. Listen to UK, he knows what he's talking about.

Park factors are useful and not just at the extremes, and FP% is not a good way to judge defense. I'm not really going overboard here, or anything "way"*4.

 

Anyway, I know he knows what he's talking about. We've had this conversation before. I'd like to see some numbers and I'm curious about SLGBIP in general.

 

We do know the Brewers defense was really bad, and the DIPS numbers are meaningful.

 

Yeah, FPCT is a terrible way to judge defense. The Brewers had terrible range on the infield, while the Cubs (outside of Theriot) did not. The Cubs four infielders (including Theriot) pretty much killed their Brewer counterparts in ZR, and I would assume UZR as well.

 

Taking Braun off the infield won't give the Brewers even an average IF defense, though it will be an improvement.

[CubinNY]

Haltz, you're making way, way, way, way too much too much of a stretch here with the defense and park factors. Listen to UK, he knows what he's talking about.

Park factors are useful and not just at the extremes, and FP% is not a good way to judge defense. I'm not really going overboard here, or anything "way"*4.

 

Anyway, I know he knows what he's talking about. We've had this conversation before. I'd like to see some numbers and I'm curious about SLGBIP in general.

 

We do know the Brewers defense was really bad, and the DIPS numbers are meaningful.

 

Yeah, FPCT is a terrible way to judge defense. The Brewers had terrible range on the infield, while the Cubs (outside of Theriot) did not. The Cubs four infielders (including Theriot) pretty much killed their Brewer counterparts in ZR, and I would assume UZR as well.

 

Taking Braun off the infield won't give the Brewers even an average IF defense, though it will be an improvement.

I'm not convinced that infield zone rating or UZR is any more valid than fielding % for XBH. It's a real stretch to conclude that the infield defense and park factors that show Wrigley was a better hitting environment than Miller Park are responsible for the differences. Even so, over the course of 81 games, the SD for park effects are so small they render the numbers meaningless except on the extremes. But that's just me, I am skeptical until otherwise convinced by the data. Simply throwing around numbers is as meaningless as experiential reports.