Reds 75% sure they'll land Bedard

[sneakypower]

Or perhaps your comment was much too vague.

[Mephistopheles]

im pretty sure youre not following me, again. i know it's hard to follow someone as brilliant as myself. I have problems keeping up with my own intelligence.

 

 

 

okay in an all non-condescending ways....when I say one pitcher is better than another, i mean context nuetral. Im not talking about fantasy sports. Obviously playing for certain teams is going to affect different players different ways.

[XZero771679666304]

im pretty sure youre not following me, again. i know it's hard to follow someone as brilliant as myself. I have problems keeping up with my own intelligence.

 

You know Meph, you pissed me off for like five minutes, but now you amuse the crap out of me.

 

Thanks for the entertainment.

[Mephistopheles]

Or perhaps your comment was much too vague.

 

I expect a lot out of my fellow posters. I don't always support my information with statistics initially because I know other people will do it after me, but what I really hope to see is that the owner of the opinion that I am criticizing will go out on their own and objectively evaluate their own position. It's the purest form of wisdom one person can possess. If someone questions your beliefs, you had better question your own beliefs.

 

That being said I also know that people here respect my opinion on baseball as high as anyone's, and that when I say something they're more likely to believe it without reasoning/statistics than someone like you, who very well may know as much as me, but you have not earned the reputation of knowing a lot like myself. Sure, should I use the same tactics against someone who is new? Probably not, but I'm a throw them straight in the fire kind of guy ;)

 

But believe me, everything I said is something I can back up statistically to unimaginable proportions. A lot of people here know that.

[Mephistopheles]

im pretty sure youre not following me, again. i know it's hard to follow someone as brilliant as myself. I have problems keeping up with my own intelligence.

 

You know Meph, you pissed me off for like five minutes, but now you amuse the crap out of me.

 

Thanks for the entertainment.

 

as long as you dont take the ego/condescending act seriously im easy to get along with. i dont care if someone uses the same thing on me. take my avatar for example...

 

the last few months ive stopped with the directly trying to be rude or negative to the other posters in threads. To keep my amusement level high, i just played the ego card even more. It's hilarious to me, it really is. Of course Im really not that type of person.

[XZero771679666304]

im pretty sure youre not following me, again. i know it's hard to follow someone as brilliant as myself. I have problems keeping up with my own intelligence.

 

You know Meph, you pissed me off for like five minutes, but now you amuse the crap out of me.

 

Thanks for the entertainment.

 

as long as you dont take the ego/condescending act seriously im easy to get along with. i dont care if someone uses the same thing on me. take my avatar for example...

 

the last few months ive stopped with the directly trying to be rude or negative to the other posters in threads. To keep my amusement level high, i just played the ego card even more. It's hilarious to me, it really is. Of course Im really not that type of person.

 

 

Oh, I don't take your act seriously at all, it's like comedy with statistical analysis. Like a 2 for 1 deal.

[Mephistopheles]

oh man my ego-centric posts where i go all out with statistics that are like ten paragraphs long are epic.

 

 

its too bad i havent done one of those in awhile.

 

 

maybe after finals....

[rchap24]

Bedard's going to look a lot like Rich Hill next season. At this point, there's NO difference between them. They're interchangeable. Don't worry about this. The Reds will be a non-factor if they get Bedard.

Please explain this

 

Second what King said. I mean, I'm sure you have plenty of statistics to back this up and everything, because I've never really seen you say something you couldn't support (outside of maybe the anti-Pie stuff), but all the statistics I'm looking at show Bedard putting up Rich Hill like numbers last year in the AL East, which is much better than the NL Central.

 

I can support PIEce of crap thing, but I choose not to. I can do this as well. It's not complicated. Career years do NOT i repeat NOT establish a new line of production. Bedard next year won't be all that different than say, aaron harang. good? of course. worth as much as some teams are offering? not even close.

That was a career for Bedard, but hes been very good for a very crappy Baltimore team for the last 4 years. Don't tell me you think that him and Hill are even. You also have to factor in one is pitching in the American League East thats gonna hurt alot of your numbers not to mention having no offense to back you up. Thats a strong statement to make after one big year in the majors.

Edited December 11, 2007 by rchap24

[sneakypower]

okay in an all non-condescending ways....when I say one pitcher is better than another, i mean context nuetral. Im not talking about fantasy sports. Obviously playing for certain teams is going to affect different players different ways.

 

i wasn't arguing with you in that post. my comment didn't quote you, didn't follow yours, didn't mention you by name.

 

i merely threw their projections into the discussion, despite my skepticism of Hill's line, which i explained.

 

I expect a lot out of my fellow posters. I don't always support my information with statistics initially because I know other people will do it after me, but what I really hope to see is that the owner of the opinion that I am criticizing will go out on their own and objectively evaluate their own position. It's the purest form of wisdom one person can possess. If someone questions your beliefs, you had better question your own beliefs.

 

all of my opinions are objective. what you're saying makes for a stupid argument.

 

"he's a good baseball player for reason A, B & C"

"that guy sucks."

"oh, i guess i overlooked something. better go see where i'm wrong."

"my work here is done."

 

that's lazy and presumptuous.

Edited December 11, 2007 by sneakypower

[XZero771679666304]

Bedard's going to look a lot like Rich Hill next season. At this point, there's NO difference between them. They're interchangeable. Don't worry about this. The Reds will be a non-factor if they get Bedard.

Please explain this

 

Second what King said. I mean, I'm sure you have plenty of statistics to back this up and everything, because I've never really seen you say something you couldn't support (outside of maybe the anti-Pie stuff), but all the statistics I'm looking at show Bedard putting up Rich Hill like numbers last year in the AL East, which is much better than the NL Central.

 

I can support PIEce of crap thing, but I choose not to. I can do this as well. It's not complicated. Career years do NOT i repeat NOT establish a new line of production. Bedard next year won't be all that different than say, aaron harang. good? of course. worth as much as some teams are offering? not even close.

That was a career for Bedard, but hes been very good for a very crappy Baltimore team for the last 4 years. Don't tell me you think that him and Hill are even you also have to factor in one is pitching in the American League East thats gonna hurt alot of your numbers not to mention having no offense to back you up.

 

His offensive support is irrelevant unless you use W-L record to gauge a pitcher's effectiveness, which is foolish.

[Mephistopheles]

pitchers do not pitch worse when they have a better offense behind them.

[rchap24]

pitchers do not pitch worse when they have a better offense behind them.

He hasn't pitched worse than Hill? I don't understand where you are saying that Hill is better than him? Sorry not trying to be rude I just don't understand your argument wheres the proof?

[Mephistopheles]

all of my opinions are objective. what you're saying makes for a stupid argument.

 

"he's a good baseball player for reason A, B & C"

"that guy sucks."

"oh, i guess i overlooked something. better go see where i'm wrong."

"my work here is done."

 

that's lazy and presumptuous.

 

that's called the Socratic method. it's one of the most effective ways of teaching someone. it's smart.

 

you have got to be kidding me with that bolded part.

 

Ask people here. Although realize that people are going to say less than what they really think, but that's fine with me.

[XZero771679666304]

pitchers do not pitch worse when they have a better offense behind them.

He hasn't pitched worse than Hill? I don't understand where you are saying that Hill is better than him? Sorry not trying to be rude I just don't understand your argument wheres the proof?

 

 

It's in the pudding.

[Mephistopheles]

pitchers do not pitch worse when they have a better offense behind them.

He hasn't pitched worse than Hill? I don't understand where you are saying that Hill is better than him? Sorry not trying to be rude I just don't understand your argument wheres the proof?

 

I didn't say Hill was better. I just said they're "interchangeable" meaning the difference between the two is insignificant. Rich Hills probably going to have another year with an ERA in the mid to high 3's. Bedards going to regress from his career year to a year in the high 3s. Theyre pretty much the same. And the league difference is half a run, max.

[Guest]

1) The reds look like a better hitting team than they really are due to GABP - so I'm not so sure I'd make blanket statements about their greatness as a hitting team

2) Bedard's traditional stats will suffer significantly in GABP - those making the comparisons on ERA may want to take this into account

3) Those saying you can't use a single season worth of stats on Rich Hill to establish him as being as good as Bedard are also ignoring that it was Hill's first full year in the majors and still stands to improve

[rchap24]

pitchers do not pitch worse when they have a better offense behind them.

He hasn't pitched worse than Hill? I don't understand where you are saying that Hill is better than him? Sorry not trying to be rude I just don't understand your argument wheres the proof?

 

 

It's in the pudding.

Ok don't understand that, but there is no proof that you could say that Hill is better or probably even going to be better than Bedard, wasn't Bedard the higher rated prospect to begin with?

[sneakypower]

 

that's called the Socratic method. it's one of the most effective ways of teaching someone. it's smart.

 

 

So is this serious or "over-the-top-conceit-aren't-I-hysterical?"

[rchap24]

pitchers do not pitch worse when they have a better offense behind them.

He hasn't pitched worse than Hill? I don't understand where you are saying that Hill is better than him? Sorry not trying to be rude I just don't understand your argument wheres the proof?

 

I didn't say Hill was better. I just said they're "interchangeable" meaning the difference between the two is insignificant. Rich Hills probably going to have another year with an ERA in the mid to high 3's. Bedard's going to regress from his career year to a year in the high 3s. They're pretty much the same. And the league difference is half a run, max.

Ok I understand the ERA argument and agree with you, but I still can't say they are interchangeable he has been the work horse of the Orioles rotation over the last few years. I can't make a statement that a number 3 starter in his first year with a team is the same as putting the Ace of another team on a new team. Hill is no ace right now and maybe Bedard isn't an ace for half of the teams in the major leagues, but the guys put in the innings and has shown he can do it better than Hill has thus far. Don't get me wrong in the long run maybe, but right now I don't think you can make that statement.

[Mephistopheles]

1) The reds look like a better hitting team than they really are due to GABP - so I'm not so sure I'd make blanket statements about their greatness as a hitting team

2) Bedard's traditional stats will suffer significantly in GABP - those making the comparisons on ERA may want to take this into account

3) Those saying you can't use a single season worth of stats on Rich Hill to establish him as being as good as Bedard are also ignoring that it was Hill's first full year in the majors and still stands to improve

 

2) Bedard's non-traditional stats are going to suffer significantly has he experiences regression to the mean. Bedard went from striking out about 7.5 guys per 9, to about 10.5 guys per 9 last season. It's certainly not something that can be expected to continue. Rich Hill is going to be expected to K about 8.0 guys per 9. Both guys will probably strike out in between 8 and 9 guys per 9 next season. Walks? They're identical. The only clear advantage that Bedard has, is that he's a fairly nuetral pitcher, whereas Rich is more of a flyball pitcher. That's good for a handful of runs over the course of a season but not enough to make a significant difference between the two guys.

 

Also, Bedards never thrown 200 innings. Hill hasnt either, but mainly because he was skipped a couple times.

[Mephistopheles]

Ok I understand the ERA argument and agree with you, but I still can't say they are interchangeable he has been the work horse of the Orioles rotation over the last few years. I can't make a statement that a number 3 starter in his first year with a team is the same as putting the Ace of another team on a new team. Hill is no ace right now and maybe Bedard isn't an ace for half of the teams in the major leagues, but the guys put in the innings and has shown he can do it better than Hill has thus far. Don't get me wrong in the long run maybe, but right now I don't think you can make that statement.

 

Bedard is not a work horse. ERA and IP each year

 

2004 137.3 IP, 4.59 ERA

2005 141.7 IP, 4.00 ERA

2006 196.3 IP, 3.76 ERA

2007 182.0 IP, 3.16 ERA

[rchap24]

Ok I understand the ERA argument and agree with you, but I still can't say they are interchangeable he has been the work horse of the Orioles rotation over the last few years. I can't make a statement that a number 3 starter in his first year with a team is the same as putting the Ace of another team on a new team. Hill is no ace right now and maybe Bedard isn't an ace for half of the teams in the major leagues, but the guys put in the innings and has shown he can do it better than Hill has thus far. Don't get me wrong in the long run maybe, but right now I don't think you can make that statement.

 

Bedard is not a work horse. ERA and IP each year

 

2004 137.3 IP, 4.59 ERA

2005 141.7 IP, 4.00 ERA

2006 196.3 IP, 3.76 ERA

2007 182.0 IP, 3.16 ERA

Didn't we just say that his first two years he was injured? I pretty sure the last two were his healthy ones and thats not to shabby almost 200 the last two?

[Mephistopheles]

he pitched one more game in 07 than he did in 04, and four more than he did in 05. wrong again

[rchap24]

he pitched one more game in 07 than he did in 04, and four more than he did in 05. wrong again

Know I wasn't trying to argue with him, but I've heard he has injury risk, when was this? that was a ? sorry I didnt make that more clearer

[Mephistopheles]

when? his entire career...