2008 Opening Day Assignments - Any Guesses?

[Clem Fandango]

quick unrelated question to the topic...

 

What sites do you guys use to keep up on the minor leagues so well. I assume Baseball America and Scout, but are there any other free sites that are good for MiLB (besides milb.com, of course). I hate not being able to throw in my 2 cents on minor league talk

 

Brewerfan is a good place to read up on the MLB Draft. The Hardball Times also has minor league stuff posted on occasion. Minor League Splits is really helpful for nuanced stats. Baseball-Reference has a minor league section.

 

During the course of the season, this forum is hopping. We have a bunch of posters who are involved in baseball in a variety of capacities (announcers, writers, scouts, etc.). Plus, we have daily threads dedicated to minor league box scores and people who are following the game.

 

Word up. Thanks!

[Wrigley Rat]

I'd be surprised if Hernandez moves up and then gets sent down, unless he's stinking. One of my principles is that there aren't that many prospects who are going to become significant big-leaguers. In terms of farm, always prioritize the feature prospects and work the lesser guys around them. Application: if Hernandez is best served at Peoria, keep him there, even if that keeps some longer shot in relief (if Hempy or Ashwood gets knocked out of rotation, so be it), and even if that necessitates some total roster filler in daytona's rotation. Do what's best for Hernandez, because if he develops the way Fleita thinks he might, you could have a legit big-league starter. Conversely, if Hernandez is best served at Daytona, put him at Daytona. Don't mess with his assignment because of dudes like Blackford or Pina, or Muldowney either.

 

Everyone makes a valid point here. But I'm torn because I think it may be an opportunity for a young pitcher to experience a tough challenge for a short period of time knowing that it will only be for a few starts. If Hernandez fails miserably, he can realize that the coaches are making valid suggestions that he needs to take to heart. If he is successful, then he may not work too hard on improving his secondary pitches. Either way, I am comfortable since he is so young and probably should repeat Peoria. However, getting a "taste" of A+ ball might not be the worst thing either. A similar concept happens when AA and AAA pitchers come up as a September callup. They get very little work, just get a taste of what's to come, and then start the next season in AA or AAA again. It's like a demotion, but they don't think about it that way since they knew ahead of time it was only a temporary situation. Just my two cents. But I love reading everyone's opinions.

[craig]

That's a different argument than I'd understood. (I thought that Muldowney or Blackford were driving this.) If you think Hernandez is unready for Daytona, but you think his development is best served by sending him there to get a taste and perhaps get toasted, then that's about what's best for Hernandez's development. Once you think the purpose is served, then advocate what best serves his development (in this hypothesis, it's sending him back down) when it's time, regardless of Blackford. If that means signing some 28-year-old Indy-Leaguer to replace him at Daytona, fine.

 

The same concept could apply for anybody. You might likewise advocate sending Atkins or Samardzija or Veal to Iowa for a month to experience it, with the intent of getting them where they belong in May.

 

My guess is that hernandez will be in Daytona, but not just to get a taste or to get humbled a bit. He was already quite competitive in Peoria, especially down the stretch if I recall correctly. If he's the prospect that cal and I hope he is, his improvement since last season could be enough to more than hold his own at Daytona. Hopefully enough improvement that he'll do better at Daytona than he did in Peoria. He was quite young at Peoria, so he's certainly at an age where many pitchers improve pretty significantly. He's also at an age where many pitchers get significantly stronger and faster from one year to the next. I admit I'll be disappointed if he isn't able to do pretty well at Daytona.

[Guest]

Dominican 1:

SP1 Alan Guerrero

 

I hope Yohan Gonzalez can advance faster than that!

 

I gotta agree there. I also think a guy like Alan Guerrero starts in the U.S.

 

Remind me what we know about Alan Guerrero. I know he's the short chunky/stocky/portly Mexican kid (220/6'0"), who's list age will be 20 this upcoming season, and who apparently was interesting enough to be given 21 starts in Mexican League. ("The" Mexican League, like the top league? Or is that a lower league?) His numbers were generally blah (high HR rate, high flyball rate, ERA >5, relatively modest K's). Cal, have you come accross some scouting info on him, from Wilkin or ITI or some personal contact or Arizona Phil or something? Have we heard something good about his stuff? Or do you know nothing other than that we signed him, he has those stats, and he must have had an intersting enough arm for a Mexican League to entrust starts to him?

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Alan%20Guerrero&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=503601

 

AZ Phil said Guerrero throws rather hard (he saw him in instructs):

 

19-year old RHP Alan Guerrero worked the 5th and 6th innings, and he is a load. He looks like he could play left guard for the Bears. Guerrero throws fairly hard, but he has command problems (he was 3-2 on every hitter in his first inning of work).

 

He was in the top Mexican league (obviously not as good as the other AAA leagues but still at a level equivalent to maybe high-A). Besides that, as you said, interesting arm + 21 starts in the Mexican Pacific League at age 19 = definitely in the U.S. in 2008.

 

BTW, I completely agree with you re Hernandez and his comp level. He finished his last 28.2 IP (6 starts) with a 1.88 ERA so he definitely finished strong while racking up a career-high in IP. He had some solid peripheral numbers as an 18-year old at low-A and has good control. I don't see why he can't stick at Daytona next season.

[Productive Outs]

quick unrelated question to the topic...

 

What sites do you guys use to keep up on the minor leagues so well. I assume Baseball America and Scout, but are there any other free sites that are good for MiLB (besides milb.com, of course). I hate not being able to throw in my 2 cents on minor league talk

 

Brewerfan is a good place to read up on the MLB Draft. The Hardball Times also has minor league stuff posted on occasion. Minor League Splits is really helpful for nuanced stats. Baseball-Reference has a minor league section.

 

During the course of the season, this forum is hopping. We have a bunch of posters who are involved in baseball in a variety of capacities (announcers, writers, scouts, etc.). Plus, we have daily threads dedicated to minor league box scores and people who are following the game.

 

Word up. Thanks!

 

firstinning.com is really good.

[craig]

Thanks for Guerrero notes, cal. Sounds very interesting. To be a regular rotation guy at 19 in Mexican League suggests that his manager likes something about him. I'd thought 220 pounds at only 6'0" sounded rather uncommon for a pitcher.

 

I wonder if he might be a full-season guy right off the bat? His Mexican stats were blah, but his walks weren't high there.

 

Would be cool to have a genuine prospect from Mexico, that would be a first for us.

 

When I was a kid there were two really good short stocky Mexican pitchers. Obviously Valenzuela was great. But the Brewers also had a guy named Teddy Higuera who was fantastic for a while.

[Wrigley Rat]

Here are my guesses at position players (of course it all will change when they announce spring training invitees who will most likely bump a couple guys down). I would love to hear opinions, but go easy on me!

 

I have listed my guys in order of who I would take first. Those in parentheses I would release/send to EST. Obviously, each team will not carry 4-5 catchers, etc.

 

Iowa:

C - Casey McGehee, Koyie Hill, Tony Richie (J.D. Closser, Danny Fatheree)

1B - Micah Hoffpauir

2B - Mike Fontenot

SS - Joe Smiokaitis

3B - Matt Craig

MIF - Carlos Rojas

CIF - Bobby Scales (Jemel Spearman)

LF - Josh Kroeger

CF - Eric Patterson, Andres Torres (Chris Walker)

RF - Jake Fox

 

Tennessee:

C - Steve Clevenger, Chris Robinson (Jake Muyco, Alan Rick)

1B - Brian Dopirak

2B - Nate Spears

SS - Jeffrey Rea (this might be a stretch to ask him to play SS again)

3B - Kyle Reynolds

MIF - Matt Matulia (Andres Blanco)

CIF - Issmael Salas (Robinson Chirinos)

LF - Corey Coles, Jeff Culpepper

CF - Tyler Colvin, Matt Camp

RF - Ryan Harvey (Yusuf Carter)

 

Daytona:

C - Welington Castillo, Blake Lalli (Mark Reed, Roberto Sabates)

1B - Russ Canzler

2B - Josh Lansford

SS - Darwin Barney

3B - Marquez Smith

MIF - Jonathan Mota (Nate Samson)

CIF - Ryan Malone

LF - Ty Wright, Alfred Joseph

CF - Jonathan Wyatt, Leon Johnson

RF - James Adduci (Brian LeClerc)

 

Peoria:

C - Josh Donaldson, Luis Bautista, (Mario Mercedes, Matt Canepa)

1B - Bryan Jost

2B - Tony Thomas

SS - Dylan Johnston

3B - Jovan Rosa

MIF - Gian Guzman (Jose Made, Bill Moss, Billy Mottram )

CIF - Marc Sawyer (Sawyer is a stretch - it might end up being Made or Moss)

LF - Brandon Guyer, Drew Rundle

CF - Cliff Andersen, Clark Hardman (Sammy Baez)

RF - Kyler Burke

[Guest]

Tennessee:

C - Steve Clevenger, Chris Robinson (Jake Muyco, Alan Rick)

1B - Brian Dopirak

2B - Nate Spears

SS - Jeffrey Rea (this might be a stretch to ask him to play SS again)

3B - Kyle Reynolds

MIF - Matt Matulia (Andres Blanco)

CIF - Issmael Salas (Robinson Chirinos)

LF - Corey Coles, Jeff Culpepper

CF - Tyler Colvin, Matt Camp

RF - Ryan Harvey (Yusuf Carter)

 

I think Matulia is much more likely to start at SS - he played there regularly at Daytona last season.

 

Daytona:

C - Welington Castillo, Blake Lalli (Mark Reed, Roberto Sabates)

1B - Russ Canzler

2B - Josh Lansford

SS - Darwin Barney

3B - Marquez Smith

MIF - Jonathan Mota (Nate Samson)

CIF - Ryan Malone

LF - Ty Wright, Alfred Joseph

CF - Jonathan Wyatt, Leon Johnson

RF - James Adduci (Brian LeClerc)

 

Smith took grounders at 2B during instructs so I think he's more likely to move than Lansford (though I think it might be a bit early to move either).

 

I'd also be (pleasantly) surprised if Gian Guzman could make the jump to full season at his age.

[Wrigley Rat]

Smith took grounders at 2B during instructs so I think he's more likely to move than Lansford (though I think it might be a bit early to move either).

 

I'd also be (pleasantly) surprised if Gian Guzman could make the jump to full season at his age.

 

Thanks for the info on Marquez Smith - I hadn't heard about that. Guzman didn't originally make my Peoria roster, but there were very few good options for a backup shortstop, so I think Guzman could get his shot for that reason. Of course, a lot depends on whether Vitters makes Peoria or not.

[Guest]

I would think a kid like Guzman who stayed in the U.S. his first year in pro baseball at 17/18 would be a significant enough prospect to not make a roster as a backup (i.e. if he's isn't ready to start at Peoria, he will stay at extended and get a crack at Boise).

[craig]

After Fleita's talk and related stories at AA this week, and his comments in Down-on-the-Farm at the convention on Sunday, it's interesting to see how those impact opening day stuff.

 

Here are some that I remember, surprises and not. Obviously all are default thoughts as of now, and injuries or unanticipated performance/shape in camp (good or bad) can change that. But anyway:

1. Castillo at AA, much Fleita buzz for his defense (Yavier Molina). That opens things up for Donaldson and Clevenger (and others) in A-ball. Donaldson and Clevenger could share Daytona, or Clevenger could be primary guy at Daytona and Donaldson start at Peoria (with changes later as performance permits). One layout would be to have Donaldson start at Peoria, possibly with Perez as partner if Perez looks strong in camp, and with Blake Lalli in the mix as a 2nd or 3rd catcher behind Clevenger at Daytona. Fleita mentioned Perez in DOF (Down-on-the-Farm), and Wilkin also mentioned Lalli in discussion of the catching depth, and in the context of the position-switch guys. I hadn't realized before that he was a convert to catching, I think from pitching previously.

 

2. Fleita was pretty explicit that Papelbon will start, not relieve, and will open at Daytona. I think many of us had thought he'd likely relieve.

 

3. 3B a lot of unknown. He talked about Lansford in AA, which would leave Daytona clear for Marques Smith and then Peoria between either Vitters or Jovan Rosa. Default appears to be Rosa for Peoria and Vitters for Boise. If Lansford is at AA, they also like Reynolds a lot; might mean he'd be rushed up to Iowa already. If you'd asked me a week ago, I'd have assumed Reynolds would start at AA, Lansford Daytona. In a sense this clears things up and gives a clear spot for each guy (unless Vitters demands Peoria, in which case Rosa gets squeezed.)

 

4. Fleita talked pretty favorably about Rhee's delivery and how balanced/advanced/consistent his delivery was. Camp may change that, but I got the impression that were today April 1, that Fleita was leaning/hoping that Rhee would open with Peoria. I also got the impression Fleita was leaning toward Acosta at Peoria, he talked in DOF about Acosta and Sandberg having a connection, Ryne and Oscar Acosta having been friends from Philly farm days. So if both Acosta and Rhee along with Huseby all opened at Peoria, that would be the core of a potentially very talented Peoria rotation. (Even if being so inexperienced they might not be that unusually effective next year.)

 

5. Fleita's stuff with Smokies made it pretty clear that Veal is intended to start, unless he really stinks in camp. But that Berg is for the pen. That surprised me. he talked pretty confidently that AA pen would include Ceda and Roquet as well as Berg. In DOF, he projected Casey Lambert to open with AA, rather a surprise. Suggested that his curveball is major-league caliber, that he's relieved all along, and seemed to have him as a fast-track LOOGY.

 

6. When Grant Johnson was mentioned, to Smokie crowd, he didn't expect Johnson to be there, more a non-preferred possibility of camp went bad. In DOF he discussed Johnson, and projected him for Iowa. That also surprised me.

 

7. Interestingly, he didn't mentioned Maestri in the AA pen discussion. He did discuss him very glowingly in DOF. I don't know what to make of that. AA would have seemed an obvious place to skip him up to. He just slipped his mind when talking to Smokie crowd? Or do they have some other unexpected thoughts in mind for him? Give him some rotation work at Daytona to work on his breaking ball and changes of speed? Flash him all the way up to Iowa? Start him only at Daytona, still in relief? Explore him for rotation at AA? Interesting and curious.

[wvcbxl]

7. Interestingly, he didn't mentioned Maestri in the AA pen discussion. He did discuss him very glowingly in DOF. I don't know what to make of that. AA would have seemed an obvious place to skip him up to. He just slipped his mind when talking to Smokie crowd? Or do they have some other unexpected thoughts in mind for him? Give him some rotation work at Daytona to work on his breaking ball and changes of speed? Flash him all the way up to Iowa? Start him only at Daytona, still in relief? Explore him for rotation at AA? Interesting and curious.

 

I thought the Maestri-as-a-starter experiment last season was pretty disastrous (even if it was certainly worth trying). So my guess is he stays in relief.

[Wrigley Rat]

These things bug me - why rush some of these guys? Many are so young - and we don't have a pressing need for many of these guys in Chicago. I fear that rushing them might cause them to lose confidence and lose trade value. Just not enough gained by rushing them in my opinion. Summarized:

Castillo at AA, Lansford in AA, Rhee would open with Peoria, Acosta at Peoria, Casey Lambert to open with AA, Grant Johnson is projected for Iowa.

Craig - thanks a ton for reporting what Oneri said. I'm happy to read about it. If you remember anything else, please post it!