Will the Cubs make the postseason in 2008?

[badnews]

Obviously this is something of a rhetorical question. I just have this feeling like the organization has blown its best chance to get back to the World Series in years.

 

Remember how much this team improved from 2003 to 2004, and there was no question that the Cubs would make the postseason again in 2004? We replaced a joke of a Choi/Simon/Karros platoon at 1st with Lee, one of the best hitters in the NL. We replaced horrid 5th starter Shawn Estes with Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. We essentially replaced Dave Veres with the best setup man in baseball, LaTroy Hawkins, and replaced Mark Guthrie with Kent Mercker. We were unstoppable.

 

Yet injuries took their toll and other teams improved as well. This concerns me. We can improve in the offseason and nothing will be guaranteed. The Brewers you figure would get better with experience, and Gallardo seems like a sure thing to get better and better. Worse yet, the Cardinals. The team that excels at making something out of nothing. I doubt the new GM is just going to sit on his hands and not improve the team.

 

It feels like the end, the best chance we had in a long time, gone, with no more to follow.

 

Yet I'll continue to follow this organization, wondering "what if" at the offseason A-Rod rumors, recoiling in terror at the Torii Hunter rumors, letting the pain subside, and setting myself up for fresh disappointment yet again. So it is with us.

[Bote McBoteface]

We need vast improvements. We had no business in the playoffs this season, and Milwaukee will be a lot better next year.

[chuckywang]

On the bright side, the Cubs will be able to outspend the other five teams in the Central.

[TruffleShuffle]

no

[Tracer Bullet]

no

[C.C.]

Depends on new ownership. If the deal gets done quick and they want to make a splash via FA. Then sure.

[badnews]

The Brewers concern me, but the Cardinals are worrisome as well. Their GM probably is going to want to make a big splash to re-invigorate the fanbase. At this low point in morale, any number of nightmare scenarios seem plausible. Matt Clement, 20-6 with a 3.22 ERA with the Cardinals. Miguel Cabrera traded to the Cardinals for Reyes, Rasmus, and Thompson or some nonsense.

 

I still have trouble believing that 2004 teamdidn't make the playoffs.

[C.C.]

The Brewers concern me, but the Cardinals are worrisome as well. Their GM probably is going to want to make a big splash to re-invigorate the fanbase. At this low point in morale, any number of nightmare scenarios seem plausible. Matt Clement, 20-6 with a 3.22 ERA with the Cardinals. Miguel Cabrera traded to the Cardinals for Reyes, Rasmus, and Thompson or some nonsense.

 

I still have trouble believing that 2004 teamdidn't make the playoffs.

 

The owners aren't going to give him money to make a big spalsh. Make no mistake the Cards are on a downard spiral. As is Houston. It's the Cubs and Brewers next year.

[RynoRules]

There is absolutely no way to intelligently answer this question at this point.

[Little Slide Rooter]

We need vast improvements. We had no business in the playoffs this season, and Milwaukee will be a lot better next year.

 

Milwaukee will be exactly the same next year. EXACTLY the same. You can bet on the Astros and Cards bein retooled however, so hopefully we'll make a few improvements too. Tejada would be a good start.

[NewUserName]

No Milwaukee will win 90+ next season. At this point I have a hard time seeing the Cubs making it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

No Milwaukee will win 90+ next season. At this point I have a hard time seeing the Cubs making it.

 

Sorry, I just dont see it. They wont be able to compete for the big free agents. their bullpen is horrible. Their starting pitching is mediocre at best, and Sheets has proved he cant stay healthy. They will definitely provide some healthy competition, but 90 wins is stretching it.

[Master Shake]

The cubs could win every game, and still not make it to the ws

[Little Slide Rooter]

Another team nit to overlook is the Pirates. They're on big bat and a few bullpen arms away from making a splash.

[HoopsCubs]

Make no mistake the Cards are on a downard spiral.

 

Hasn't there been talk of St. Louis increasing their payroll from ~$95M in 2007 to ~$115M in 2008?

 

That influx in cash could negate the spiral.

[NewUserName]

No Milwaukee will win 90+ next season. At this point I have a hard time seeing the Cubs making it.

 

Sorry, I just dont see it. They wont be able to compete for the big free agents. their bullpen is horrible. Their starting pitching is mediocre at best, and Sheets has proved he cant stay healthy. They will definitely provide some healthy competition, but 90 wins is stretching it.

 

Bullpens are fickle, Gaurdaro is probably the future ace and Capuano will probably rebound. Also what free agents do they need? They could probably use a LFer since Mench is no good and Jenkins is probably leaving. The Brewers are a young team getting better. The Cubs are a older team whose star players are probably only going to decline in the future.

[CubColtPacer]

No Milwaukee will win 90+ next season. At this point I have a hard time seeing the Cubs making it.

 

Sorry, I just dont see it. They wont be able to compete for the big free agents. their bullpen is horrible. Their starting pitching is mediocre at best, and Sheets has proved he cant stay healthy. They will definitely provide some healthy competition, but 90 wins is stretching it.

 

Bullpens are fickle, Gaurdaro is probably the future ace and Capuano will probably rebound. Also what free agents do they need? They could probably use a LFer since Mench is no good and Jenkins is probably leaving. The Brewers are a young team getting better. The Cubs are a older team whose star players are probably only going to decline in the future.

 

The Brewers young hitting reminds me of the Cubs young pitching in 03. Sure, they are great and they will cause the team to be in contention by themselves for years (without injuries). The same thing is true for both teams though-how does the Brewers hitting get better? Many of their young hitters are already great, so are they really going to develop that much more? For example, Braun. He had a 1004 OPS this year. Do you see him consistently going over that?

Gallardo for their pitching also had a #1-#2 like season already although only in 110 innings. Braun and Gallardo for a full year will help them, but I honestly don't see how their young players are going to get better because they already have broken out. Some of them might get better, but some of them also might have just had career years. The chances seem about equal both ways.

[Backtobanks]

Depending on the transactions that happen this winter, I would imagine the Brewers and Cubs would be picked as favorites with the budget-increased Cards for third.

[Soul]

No Milwaukee will win 90+ next season. At this point I have a hard time seeing the Cubs making it.

 

Sorry, I just dont see it. They wont be able to compete for the big free agents. their bullpen is horrible. Their starting pitching is mediocre at best, and Sheets has proved he cant stay healthy. They will definitely provide some healthy competition, but 90 wins is stretching it.

 

Bullpens are fickle, Gaurdaro is probably the future ace and Capuano will probably rebound. Also what free agents do they need? They could probably use a LFer since Mench is no good and Jenkins is probably leaving. The Brewers are a young team getting better. The Cubs are a older team whose star players are probably only going to decline in the future.

 

The Brewers young hitting reminds me of the Cubs young pitching in 03. Sure, they are great and they will cause the team to be in contention by themselves for years (without injuries). The same thing is true for both teams though-how does the Brewers hitting get better? Many of their young hitters are already great, so are they really going to develop that much more? For example, Braun. He had a 1004 OPS this year. Do you see him consistently going over that?

Gallardo for their pitching also had a #1-#2 like season already although only in 110 innings. Braun and Gallardo for a full year will help them, but I honestly don't see how their young players are going to get better because they already have broken out. Some of them might get better, but some of them also might have just had career years. The chances seem about equal both ways.

 

Yeah, I don't see how anyone can simply conclude, in October of 2007, that guys like Braun and Hart are going to repeat their performances from last year. Nobody knows if they'll be able to assemble much of a bullpen next year either. Also nobody knows what role injuries will play, for either the Cubs or Brewers.

 

There's no way the outcome of '08 can be predicted right now. At least wait until ST starts.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

When looking at both clubs (MIL and CHC), I'd put their respective playoff odds at a roughly equal probability to this year

 

Things that could help the Cubs increase on their 85 wins-

 

1) Typical HR years from Ramirez and Lee

2) Soriano not missing 20 games

3) Full years of Soto and/or Murton

4) Less early season 'experimenting' with lineups or bullpen roles that we experienced with a first year manager

 

That that could make the Cubs worse-

 

1) Aging of primary players (Lee and Soriano, mainly Lee IMHO)

2) Regression of starting pitchers who pitched above expectations this year- mainly thinking Marquis, to a lesser extent Lilly

3) Marmol coming back down to earth, partially due to overuse this season

 

Things that could make the Brewers improve on their 83 wins-

 

1) Full seasons from Gallardo and Braun

2) Bounce back season from Weeks, which looks likely given what he did the last few weeks of the season

3) Full year of Linebrink in the bullpen (not sure this is a good thing, but theoretically it probably is)

4) Typical year from Capuano

5) Full season of the 'good' Villaneuva who seemed to be coming on later in the year

 

Things that could make them worse-

 

1) How much better could Braun and Fielder really be? Don't see them upping last year's production in all probability

2) Not getting career years from Hart and Hardy

 

 

And the big variable is, of course, what happens over the winter. But barring injury, I really don't see the balance between these two clubs swinging demonstrably either way. I could see the Brewers taking a few more games, but the Cubs were also basically a 90 win team after the first few months of Lou figuring the roster out. So really...who knows. But I don't see either team winning 95+ games or totally tanking, either.

[Ender]

Brewers pitching staff really wasn't bad this season, it was the defense that let them down. I don't know that it will improve with experience or not. Weeks, Braun and Fielder are all well below average defensive players as is Estrada so that is the majority of the IF there being terrible.

 

The hitting is going to improve but in a subtle way most likely. The OBP is going to go up as the young players gain plate discipline and they should improve with situational hitting, in the end it probably won't be a big jump in OPS but it will show up some in runs scored.

 

The young hitting is not the only up and coming talent though. Gallardo has a legit shot at being an ace and Villaneuva looks to be a solid #3 prospect, sort of like a Lilly type pitcher. Parra is another good arm in the system and he'll probably be in a bullpen role all year stretching out for a starting job in 2009.

 

Suppan is a decent #4 and Sheets injury this year had nothing to do with his arm, so he very well may be healthy next season. A rotation of Gallardo, Sheets, Villaneuva, Suppan, Capuano/Bush is going to be as good as anyone in the division.

 

The bullpen is a very valid concern especially if they let Linebrink and Cordero walk and of course the young hitting could regress but the team also underachieved this season with all of those come from behind losses. My guess is they are an 85-90 win team next season in a still weak division.