Mike Fontenot

[Skyballer]

The OPS thing is getting absurdly out of control on this board.

I agree. I get tired of reading posts with these Moneyball stats being the only way to evaluate a player. Sure OPS is a useful stat, but I refuse to believe that any one stat can truly reflect someone's value.

 

they're not the only way, but on a message board, they're usually the best.

 

nah let's get back to the good ol' days of using batting average to determine a player's worth

Ba is a very good stat, just not as good as OBP.

Someone who hits .350 with 10 homers is much better than a .220 hitter with 40 homers

I'm not referring to anyone just saying.

[Drew Doughty]

The OPS thing is getting absurdly out of control on this board.

I agree. I get tired of reading posts with these Moneyball stats being the only way to evaluate a player. Sure OPS is a useful stat, but I refuse to believe that any one stat can truly reflect someone's value.

 

they're not the only way, but on a message board, they're usually the best.

 

nah let's get back to the good ol' days of using batting average to determine a player's worth

Ba is a very good stat, just not as good as OBP.

Someone who hits .350 with 10 homers is much better than a .220 hitter with 40 homers

I'm not referring to anyone just saying.

 

using average and home runs is only slightly better than using average and nothing else.

 

are we talking about pedro feliz or adam dunn? are we talking about ichiro or joe mauer?

[Skyballer]

The OPS thing is getting absurdly out of control on this board.

I agree. I get tired of reading posts with these Moneyball stats being the only way to evaluate a player. Sure OPS is a useful stat, but I refuse to believe that any one stat can truly reflect someone's value.

 

they're not the only way, but on a message board, they're usually the best.

 

nah let's get back to the good ol' days of using batting average to determine a player's worth

Ba is a very good stat, just not as good as OBP.

Someone who hits .350 with 10 homers is much better than a .220 hitter with 40 homers

I'm not referring to anyone just saying.

 

using average and home runs is only slightly better than using average and nothing else.

 

are we talking about pedro feliz or adam dunn? are we talking about ichiro or joe mauer?

I'm just saying that BA is a good measure of skill, still OBP is the best

[Drew Doughty]

The OPS thing is getting absurdly out of control on this board.

I agree. I get tired of reading posts with these Moneyball stats being the only way to evaluate a player. Sure OPS is a useful stat, but I refuse to believe that any one stat can truly reflect someone's value.

 

they're not the only way, but on a message board, they're usually the best.

 

nah let's get back to the good ol' days of using batting average to determine a player's worth

Ba is a very good stat, just not as good as OBP.

Someone who hits .350 with 10 homers is much better than a .220 hitter with 40 homers

I'm not referring to anyone just saying.

 

using average and home runs is only slightly better than using average and nothing else.

 

are we talking about pedro feliz or adam dunn? are we talking about ichiro or joe mauer?

I'm just saying that BA is a good measure of skill, still OBP is the best

 

except that it's not. it tells you very little about a player's ability to be a positive contributor offensively to his baseball team.

[Skyballer]

The OPS thing is getting absurdly out of control on this board.

I agree. I get tired of reading posts with these Moneyball stats being the only way to evaluate a player. Sure OPS is a useful stat, but I refuse to believe that any one stat can truly reflect someone's value.

 

they're not the only way, but on a message board, they're usually the best.

 

nah let's get back to the good ol' days of using batting average to determine a player's worth

Ba is a very good stat, just not as good as OBP.

Someone who hits .350 with 10 homers is much better than a .220 hitter with 40 homers

I'm not referring to anyone just saying.

 

using average and home runs is only slightly better than using average and nothing else.

 

are we talking about pedro feliz or adam dunn? are we talking about ichiro or joe mauer?

I'm just saying that BA is a good measure of skill, still OBP is the best

 

except that it's not. it tells you very little about a player's ability to be a positive contributor offensively to his baseball team.

so you're saying how often he gets a hit doesn't mean anyting :shock:

[Drew Doughty]

so you're saying how often he gets a hit doesn't mean anyting :shock:

 

no, i'm saying how often he gets a hit doesn't tell me much about how much someone contributes offensively.

[Sarcastic]

The OPS thing is getting absurdly out of control on this board.

I agree. I get tired of reading posts with these Moneyball stats being the only way to evaluate a player. Sure OPS is a useful stat, but I refuse to believe that any one stat can truly reflect someone's value.

 

No single stat can tell you everything about a player, but the argument that a player is good simply because he has a decent OBP false. That is a very important part of the game, but not the only one. What the argument over Theriot was doing was exactly what you say you dislike, focusing on one stat to tell the whole story for a player, OBP, while ignoring SLG. Add them together, and you get a stat that doesn't tell you everything about a player, but gives you a vital overview of their offensive contribution that correlates very well with runs scored.

[Skyballer]

so you're saying how often he gets a hit doesn't mean anyting :shock:

 

no, i'm saying how often he gets a hit doesn't tell me much about how much someone contributes offensively.

No but it tells quite a bit

For instance if someone can get a hit 35% of the time then he is a good player even if he is a below average power hitter.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm just saying that BA is a good measure of skill, still OBP is the best

 

It's not, though. Hanley Ramirez and David Eckstein play the same position for their respective National League teams. They both had a .292 BA last year. Hanley had a 54.9 VORP, Eckstein was at 8.5. Batting averages the same, but one guy is massively better than the other.

[Skyballer]

I'm just saying that BA is a good measure of skill, still OBP is the best

 

It's not, though. Hanley Ramirez and David Eckstein play the same position for their respective National League teams. They both had a .292 BA last year. Hanley had a 54.9 VORP, Eckstein was at 8.5. Batting averages the same, but one guy is massively better than the other.

I still don't understand VORP, could you explain it please.

[Drew Doughty]

so you're saying how often he gets a hit doesn't mean anyting :shock:

 

no, i'm saying how often he gets a hit doesn't tell me much about how much someone contributes offensively.

No but it tells quite a bit

For instance if someone can get a hit 35% of the time then he is a good player even if he is a below average power hitter.

 

so far this year, one player has gotten a hit 35% of the time. that's a very limited way to look at things.

 

and seriously, if all of those hits are singles and he's a slow/bad base runner, he doesn't contribute much offensively. average is virtually worthless on it's own, much moreso than OBP or SLG.

[brinoch]

Please if you want to make sense don't make silly statements, My point is that they're scoring runs very well with Theriot stealing bases and without hitting doubles, triples and HR.

Furthermore, i contend that there aren't very many power options at short and that SS isn't the place to look for power.

Lee, Ramirez and Sori should be hitting for power, yet they're not. Are we to say we need a new 1B, 3B and LF no, because they're getting on base, much the same way Theriot is.

So please Brinoch, enlighten us as to why we still need a new SS.

 

1. Theriot has 19 SB. Not all of them have led to runs.

 

2. We aren't scoring nearly enough. Not even close. The Cubs are 8th in the NL with 481 runs scored. They have a team OBP of .328, which is good for 10th in the NL. And, if that wasn't enough, they have a team SLG of .410, which ties them for 8th along with Houston. Their team OPS is .738 -- 10th in the NL.

 

3. I didn't argue particularly strongly that the Cubs should upgrade SS, except to point out that you had undermined your own point. Which you did, and conveniently ignored. Remember this?

 

Power is very over rated, especially for a number 2 hitter.

 

How about this:

Because we all know the Cubs are leading the league in HR :roll:

 

Your excellent riposte?

They're winning elsewhere.

 

Bravo.

 

More points...

 

4. Lee, Ramirez and Soriano are hitting for power. Lee's SLG is .507, Ramirez is at .549 and Soriano has posted a .519. They also get on base.

 

5. NL League average SLG/Cubs SLG:

 

C .385/.329

1B .460/.479

2B .420/.415

3B .446/.522

SS .415/.338

LF .467/.510

CF .416/.395

RF .424/.372

 

6. The power outage is coming from, you guessed it, SS, RF, CF and C (.338, .372, .394, and .329, respectively). The Cubs are above at the average at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF. They are below at C (-.056), SS (-.077), CF (-.021), and RF (-.052). That's a lot of slugging they are down, no? And, lo, SS is our weakest SLG position as compared to the NL average.

 

7. Hence, we need an upgrade at SS.

[TruffleShuffle]

so you're saying how often he gets a hit doesn't mean anyting :shock:

 

no, i'm saying how often he gets a hit doesn't tell me much about how much someone contributes offensively.

No but it tells quite a bit

For instance if someone can get a hit 35% of the time then he is a good player even if he is a below average power hitter.

 

so far this year, one player has gotten a hit 35% of the time. that's a very limited way to look at things.

 

and seriously, if all of those hits are singles and he's a slow/bad base runner, he doesn't contribute much offensively. average is virtually worthless on it's own, much moreso than OBP or SLG.

 

and he doesn't walk. A .350 hitter who never walks, never gets hits other than singles, and runs the bases poorly is not a particularly good baseball player. But this is completely unrealistic, because a guy is at least going to walk sometimes (no hitter who is clueless about the strike zone is going to hit .350) and at least lace some doubles and the occasional home run.

 

 

VORP, from BP:

 

Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

[TruffleShuffle]

6. The power outage is coming from, you guessed it, SS, RF, CF and C (.338, .372, .394, and .329, respectively). The Cubs are above at the average at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF. They are below at C (-.056), SS (-.077), CF (-.021), and RF (-.052). That's a lot of slugging they are down, no? And, lo, SS is our weakest SLG position as compared to the NL average.

 

7. Hence, we need an upgrade at SS.

 

I agree with most of your points, but for the price Theriot has provided good value at SS. He adds an above-average OBP at SS, and actually RF has provided a top-10 OBP in the league. The most needed upgrades on the team are at CF and C, both of which have had little power and a complete inability to get on base.

 

In the future I want a better SS for the Cubs, but for this year I am okay with Theriot. The bigger problems lie elsewhere.

[brinoch]

6. The power outage is coming from, you guessed it, SS, RF, CF and C (.338, .372, .394, and .329, respectively). The Cubs are above at the average at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF. They are below at C (-.056), SS (-.077), CF (-.021), and RF (-.052). That's a lot of slugging they are down, no? And, lo, SS is our weakest SLG position as compared to the NL average.

 

7. Hence, we need an upgrade at SS.

 

I agree with most of your points, but for the price Theriot has provided good value at SS. He adds an above-average OBP at SS, and actually RF has provided a top-10 OBP in the league. The most needed upgrades on the team are at CF and C, both of which have had little power and a complete inability to get on base.

 

In the future I want a better SS for the Cubs, but for this year I am okay with Theriot. The bigger problems lie elsewhere.

 

In actuality, I'm fine with Theriot. He's a nice value at SS. I was demonstrating to our dear friend MurtonFan why we should upgrade at SS. Now, if there's nothing great available, or the cost is too much, Theriot (or Cedeno) is fine.

 

I believe the easiest upgrade, all things considered, is in RF. Floyd's been terrible.

[TruffleShuffle]

I believe the easiest upgrade, all things considered, is in RF. Floyd's been terrible.

 

I do agree with this, b/c RF who can get on base a decent amount and hit for power are generally pretty easy to find. Still, Jock's dog pile performance this year is disturbing. If he really is a .305 OBP, sub-.350 SLG player the rest of the year, that's going to be really hard to overcome, especially with catcher providing next to no offense.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I believe the easiest upgrade, all things considered, is in RF. Floyd's been terrible.

It's amazing how someone can hit the ball so hard (according to Len & Bob), but with relatively no power.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'll also note that Cliff's BABIP - .340 - is disturbingly high, given that he is a slow player who doesn't hit line drives at an especially good rate. If that comes back down to normal, which for him might not even be .300, he's going to be next to useless unless he adds some pop.

[brinoch]

I'll also note that Cliff's BABIP - .340 - is disturbingly high, given that he is a slow player who doesn't hit line drives at an especially good rate. If that comes back down to normal, which for him might not even be .300, he's going to be next to useless unless he adds some pop.

 

I really don't think he can play consistently and generate any kind of power. He's old and his arms are legs are pretty fragile.

 

RF is crying out for Murton. Just league average there would help the team amazingly. I would really give a lot to see Soto, Murton and Pie play every day. They really can't be worse than what we've already endured.

 

The cost of this veteran fetish and lack of patience will be felt next year, too. Pie and Soto will probably be the starters for 2008. And they will struggle at times. Had they been given the opportunity to play this year, and learn those lessons, not only might we have improved this season, but we'd know what we have in them. And they'd be ready to go for '08.

 

Every year with Hendry I say the same thing. And every year we play crappy veterans.

[rynefan]

It's downright painful to watch Cliff run the bases

[Skyballer]

What's downright painful is to listen to Brinoch who only cares about one thing. Power is over rated, the reason: you don't take into considration SB. I know Riot only has 19, yet I still reason that if he is sent nearly as much as Reyes he will have a lot more SB while still keeping his CS low.

So essentially about half of his singles are SB which would make his SLG around .500 :shock: that's right brinoch if we had a manager that sent the baserunner every time we would have a very good SS, all-star caliber.

None the less, Lou is doing his job just swell: he only sends the baserunner when it is going to help the team so alot of those singles that remain singles are not hurting the team at all.

[SouthSideRyan]

What's downright painful is to listen to Brinoch who only cares about one thing. Power is over rated, the reason: you don't take into considration SB. I know Riot only has 19, yet I still reason that if he is sent nearly as much as Reyes he will have a lot more SB while still keeping his CS low.

So essentially about half of his singles are SB which would make his SLG around .500 :shock: that's right brinoch if we had a manager that sent the baserunner every time we would have a very good SS, all-star caliber.

None the less, Lou is doing his job just swell: he only sends the baserunner when it is going to help the team so alot of those singles that remain singles are not hurting the team at all.

 

This is crazy, you're assuming every chance to run, Theriot would make it. How bout you adjust his OBP for me for all the CS.

[ConstableRabbit]

What's downright painful is to listen to Brinoch who only cares about one thing. Power is over rated, the reason: you don't take into considration SB. I know Riot only has 19, yet I still reason that if he is sent nearly as much as Reyes he will have a lot more SB while still keeping his CS low.

So essentially about half of his singles are SB which would make his SLG around .500 :shock: that's right brinoch if we had a manager that sent the baserunner every time we would have a very good SS, all-star caliber.

None the less, Lou is doing his job just swell: he only sends the baserunner when it is going to help the team so alot of those singles that remain singles are not hurting the team at all.

 

That's ridiculous. Are you adjusting his OBP and OPS for every time he's caught?

 

 

Edit: :oops: looks SSR beat me to it...

[Skyballer]

Riot is a good baserunner and surely his CS would still be relatively low, so the adjustment isn't that much.

At the very lest SLG would look like .480.

No I haven't crunched the numbers but if someone would like to, feel free.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Riot is a good baserunner and surely his CS would still be relatively low, so the adjustment isn't that much.

At the very lest SLG would look like .480.

No I haven't crunched the numbers but if someone would like to, feel free.

 

"surely"? How is that so sure?