A Look at the Remaining Schedule

[kroth1342]

With the second half of the season getting underway on Friday, what are our prospects to overtake Milwaukee and/or make noise in the WC? Here is an optimistic look at the remaining 75 games, a sort of best case scenario. All analysis should build off of this.

 

July 13 - July 22; 3 vs. HOU, 4 vs. SF, 3 vs. SF: we've been playing well on at home lately, and need to keep it up. Series wins - HOU, ARI. Series ties - SF. 6-4 -- 50-47

 

Actual: HOU 3-0; SF 3-1

 

July 24 - July 29; 3 @ STL, 3 @ CIN: the Cards get up for the rivalry, and a lot of runs are scored at GABP. Road trip 3-3 -- 53-50

 

July 30 - August 5; 4 vs. PHI, 3 vs. NYM: split against a Phillies team that leads the NL in runs, then winning the series against a Mets squad with very similar RS/RA to us. Series wins - NYM. Series ties - PHI. 4-3 -- 57-53.

 

August 6 - August 12; 3 @ HOU, 4 @ COL: I can see our pitchers getting into trouble along this trip if they leave too many over the plate. Road trip 3-4 -- 60-57.

 

August 14 - August 20; 3 vs. CIN, 4 vs. STL (or is it 5? make-up game here?): after our first off day in three weeks, this successful homestand includes winning the series against CIN and taking 4 straight from the Cards. Homestand 6-1 -- 66-58.

 

August 21 - August 26; 3 @ SF, 3 @ ARI: a tough trip out west ends up .500. Road trip 3-3 -- 69-61.

 

August 28 - September 6; 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. HOU, 4 vs. LAD: the make or break homestand of the year. A sweep of the Brewers (I said this was optimistic) followed by a series win against the Astros and a tough split against the Dodgers gives us momentum in the final month. Series wins - MIL, HOU. Series tie - LAD. 7-3 -- 76-64.

 

September 7 - September 16; 3 @ PIT, 3 @ HOU, 3 @ STL: a 10 day stretch against division rivals comes out 5-4, somewhat disappointing. Road trip 5-4 -- 81-68.

 

September 17 - September 23; 3 vs. CIN, 3 vs. PIT: against a Reds team missing Griffey or Dunn (or both) and a Pirates team playing out the stretch, we win both series. Series win - CIN, PIT. 4-2 -- 85-70.

 

September 25 - September 30; 3 @ FLA, 3 @ CIN: to atone for the losses at the end of the 2004 season, we have to sweep one series and win the other. Road trip 5-1 -- 90-71.

 

So obviously the cancelled Cardinals game needs to be in there, but the point is, we need to go 46-28 to be in the playoff mix. The questions that arise from there:

 

1) can we play .621 ball from here on out to get to that point?

 

2) if yes, will that even be enough wins to make the playoffs?

 

3) if not, how many wins do we think it will take to win the division?[/b]

Edited July 20, 2007 by kroth1342

[anabiono]

i play this game in my head all the time

 

i called 93 wins before the season started

 

mmm

 

i think the cubs should just continue to focus on themselves...win a heavy majority of their series matchups...and the rest will take care of itself...

[Skyballer]

i play this game in my head all the time

 

i called 93 wins before the season started

 

mmm

 

i think the cubs should just continue to focus on themselves...win a heavy majority of their series matchups...and the rest will take care of itself...

:D ding, you win

[otis89]

I noticed one problem.

 

July 13 - July 22; 3 vs. HOU, 4 vs. SF, 3 vs. SF

 

One of those should be Arizona, not San Francisco.

[Ender]

Brewers schedule looks a lot like the Cubs so I'd expect the two teams to play about the same quality of schedule. I know the Brewers have a ton of games against the Reds and Cardinals still.

[SouthSideRyan]

Your math and optimism is all over. 3-4 at Houston and Colorado, but sweeping Milwaukee and St. Louis?

 

My math has you at 90-71.(Phillies/Mets series should be 4-3 not 4-2.)

[bhogg]

88 wins could very well win the Wild Card.

 

90-94 would likely win the division.

 

I don't think milwaukee is on pace to win more than 90. Someone will get hot in early September and the rest will be history.

[kroth1342]

Your math and optimism is all over. 3-4 at Houston and Colorado, but sweeping Milwaukee and St. Louis?

 

My math has you at 90-71.(Phillies/Mets series should be 4-3 not 4-2.)

 

I wouldn't say its all over, I thought we might struggle in some homer friendly parks and would be around even for that road trip. If I was being pessimistic, I could say we lose 5 or 6 of those games because Hill, Marshall, and Lilly give up a ton of homers.

 

I figured we'd need some big performances at home to keep us in the hunt, hence the sweeps of MIL and STL.

[Fred Hornkohl]

88 wins could very well win the Wild Card.

 

90-94 would likely win the division.

 

I don't think milwaukee is on pace to win more than 90. Someone will get hot in early September and the rest will be history.

 

Brewers are on a pace to win 90.234, rounded to 90, games on the season.

[anabiono]

do we play on thursday or friday?

 

my fantasy page says thursday, cubs.com says friday!

[seanimal]

My pocket schedule says Friday.

[Fred Hornkohl]

do we play on thursday or friday?

 

my fantasy page says thursday, cubs.com says friday!

 

The confusion stems from the rained out game of 11 April, and the possibility of using Thurs 12 July as the makeup date..... but that game was made up on Mon 11 June..... so the season will resume on Friday 13 July, not Thursday.

[anabiono]

that's what i was thinking, but i was second guessing myself...muchas gracias!