Lou's shake-up: Guzman and his 3.18 ERA to pen

[Soul]

Change for a sake of change is rarely a good idea.

 

Huh?

 

that's what you're advocating. you're saying he shouldn't be content with what he has -- which is fine -- so he should make a move. he doesn't have much he can do. moving guzman is not the right idea. pressure hendry to make a move or something, but don't move an effective starter to the bullpen. it's just a bad idea.

 

Guzman has had 2 good starts, it's ridiculous to talk about him like he's Tom Glavine or something.

 

Your 'solution' of changing usage patterns isn't likely to be any more effective, and nowhere has Lou said this would be a permanent move.

 

You said it's change just for the sake of change. I say you're complaining just to complain.

[CubColtPacer]

A few quick points

 

1) Guzman will likely be better than Marshall in the rotation, but that isn't for sure. There were legitimate concerns about Guzman in the rotation post-injury, and so far I don't think there has been much proof to convince otherwise. His numbers starting in Triple A both 06 and 07 were not great. His numbers starting in the major leagues were terrible last year, and this year he's faced 2 absolutely awful lineups out of 3 starts, and those were his 2 good outings. He has the stuff to become a very good ML starting pitcher, and it is reasonable to think he would be a pretty good ML pitcher, but I don't think you can just pencil him in to be better than Marshall for sure

2) Guzman does have very good numbers in the pen, partly because he can let loose with his fastball a little more in relief. Whatever numbers he has a starter, he will likely have even better numbers in relief. So the loss in innings will partly be helped with more effective production.

 

With that, the big issue is who replaces him in the rotation, and who does Guzman replace in the bullpen. If Marshall replaces him in the rotation and Guzman sends somebody like Eyre to the DL, the team likely gets better. If Marshall comes in to the rotation and Marmol has sent down, then it's not that bad, but it shouldn't have been done (because Guzman is likely better than Marshall and there won't likely be a huge difference between Guz and Marmol in the pen). If Miller or Dempster replaces Guzman in the rotation, this is an awful switch.

[Drew Doughty]

Ohman has been outstanding against left handed hitters for several years now, and this year is no different. They're 2 for 20 with a 2B and 3 BB against him going into today, that's good no matter how much you remember a bad outing.

 

And I will tell you why you are wrong. As a situational pitcher, he is brought in to face batters, usually with runners on in dire situations. Lifetime numbers for Ohman are terrible. He has 33 walks with RISP in 36 IP. That is god awful for a relief pitcher. 6 of those are IBB, but 27 is still ridiculous nonetheless. This year, its 4 walks in 3.2 IP with RISP.

 

LOOGYs need to get the people they face out, not walk them and add to the problems. If he is going to be put in the situation as a reliever with runners on base in scoring position, then he needs to do his job...and he isnt.

 

Need to get rid of him and move on.

 

the issue with this argument is that he's not being used as a loogy. Plus there's that whole sample size issue. you're limiting it way way down if you're looking at this season. he has given up a run against lefties w/ risp, but he's given up 4 against righties.

[VVMattVV]

He said effective starter, how is that making him out to be like Tom Glavine?

[Drew Doughty]

Change for a sake of change is rarely a good idea.

 

Huh?

 

that's what you're advocating. you're saying he shouldn't be content with what he has -- which is fine -- so he should make a move. he doesn't have much he can do. moving guzman is not the right idea. pressure hendry to make a move or something, but don't move an effective starter to the bullpen. it's just a bad idea.

 

Guzman has had 2 good starts, it's ridiculous to talk about him like he's Tom Glavine or something.

 

Your 'solution' of changing usage patterns isn't likely to be any more effective, and nowhere has Lou said this would be a permanent move.

 

You said it's change just for the sake of change. I say you're complaining just to complain.

 

fine. keep using straw man arguments. attack me instead of attacking the point. keep up the great work.

 

There isn't much Lou can do. He's handcuffed. Moving Guzman to the pen isn't a good idea.

[Soul]

Change for a sake of change is rarely a good idea.

 

Huh?

 

that's what you're advocating. you're saying he shouldn't be content with what he has -- which is fine -- so he should make a move. he doesn't have much he can do. moving guzman is not the right idea. pressure hendry to make a move or something, but don't move an effective starter to the bullpen. it's just a bad idea.

 

Guzman has had 2 good starts, it's ridiculous to talk about him like he's Tom Glavine or something.

 

Your 'solution' of changing usage patterns isn't likely to be any more effective, and nowhere has Lou said this would be a permanent move.

 

You said it's change just for the sake of change. I say you're complaining just to complain.

 

fine. keep using straw man arguments. attack me instead of attacking the point. keep up the great work.

 

Oh please. I never came close to attacking you. The problem here is that several people on this thread genuinely think they'd be a better manager than Lou Piniella, yet can't come up with a better way to handle this situation than Lou is trying.

 

Sorry, but I'll call that out every single time.

Edited May 20, 2007 by Soul

[C.C.]

Change for a sake of change is rarely a good idea.

 

Huh?

 

that's what you're advocating. you're saying he shouldn't be content with what he has -- which is fine -- so he should make a move. he doesn't have much he can do. moving guzman is not the right idea. pressure hendry to make a move or something, but don't move an effective starter to the bullpen. it's just a bad idea.

 

Pressure Hendry? Are you serious? Don't you think if there was a bullpen fix out there Hendry would be all over it?

[VVMattVV]

Oh wow. This is what I won't buy into anymore, I've listened to it all year and have said it myself. Ohman is getting better, yet still sucks. What did he do today? Let gritty Erstad on, got Uribe out I believe, then walked AJ. Small sample sure, but its getting old. Despite the struggle, he is a decent loogy career wise so hes not all bad. Howry has been a disgrace, his numbers indicate exactly how hes pitched. His BABIP might me lower if his fastball wasn't straighter then a arrow. Hes terrible, Dusty taxed him and the 07' Cubs are seeing this first hand. Hes no longer an 8th inning guy. We can't say Howry, Marmol and Cotts will get us through the 7th, how many times have we had to call in our best reliever Wuertz to get us out of those early situations? Do you want to see wild Marmol or Howry pitching with the bases loaded? The bullpen is a joke and should have no confidence in it until it manages to go a whole week without blowing holds and saves. Bullpen apologists be damned.

 

Ohman has been outstanding against left handed hitters for several years now, and this year is no different. They're 2 for 20 with a 2B and 3 BB against him going into today, that's good no matter how much you remember a bad outing.

 

Howry's stuff isn't any different than year's past. He's not perfect, and that's why he's a situational reliever. His BABIP isn't in line with the amount of line drives he's giving up, his BAA will start coming down before too long, regardless of how angry everyone gets when he gets hit.

 

If you aren't going to be satisfied with a combination of Howry, Cotts, and Marmol getting you through the 7th, then you're being too difficult to please. Nobody is all that great until you get to the back of the pen, that's why they're middle relievers. Even then, Cotts has been a good reliever, Marmol has dynamic stuff(much like Wuertz), and Howry has been 8th inning caliber for several previous years. Getting back to the real point, if you're that dissatisfied with that setup, is Guzman really going to make you feel better about the pen?

If the Sox pen doesn't decide to suck like the Cubs one does today we lose 6-5, how would everyones tune sound then? We blow game after game and its not okay anymore.

 

The "tune" wouldn't change at all. If we lost 6-5, it'd mainly be on the shoulders of our offense and starting pitching. Its not like it was 5-0 and the bullpen gave up all the runs, Marquis left with it tied.

 

Wow, so you really would start complaining about the offense who scored a very winnable 5 runs and Marquis who had been our best pitcher all year? You would not be dissatisfied with the fact Howry blows another game in the 8th inning?

 

I would complain about Marquis giving up 5 earned runs, yes. What does his pitching this year have to do with anything? We're talking about one game. If you lose 6-5 in a game where your starter gave up 5 runs, he is on the hook for a bad outing. What are you trying to argue exactly?

[Soul]

He said effective starter, how is that making him out to be like Tom Glavine?

 

He's not been determined to be an "effective starter" based on 2 starts.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The problem here is that several people on this thread genuinely think they'd be a better manager than Lou Piniella, yet can't come up with a better way to handle this situation than Lou is trying.

 

Sorry, but I'll call that out every single time.

 

hahahaha, is this for real? At least two different posters, maybe three came up with roles for the pen to be effective without the madness of demoting Guzman.

[tfarks]

Oh wow. This is what I won't buy into anymore, I've listened to it all year and have said it myself. Ohman is getting better, yet still sucks. What did he do today? Let gritty Erstad on, got Uribe out I believe, then walked AJ. Small sample sure, but its getting old. Despite the struggle, he is a decent loogy career wise so hes not all bad. Howry has been a disgrace, his numbers indicate exactly how hes pitched. His BABIP might me lower if his fastball wasn't straighter then a arrow. Hes terrible, Dusty taxed him and the 07' Cubs are seeing this first hand. Hes no longer an 8th inning guy. We can't say Howry, Marmol and Cotts will get us through the 7th, how many times have we had to call in our best reliever Wuertz to get us out of those early situations? Do you want to see wild Marmol or Howry pitching with the bases loaded? The bullpen is a joke and should have no confidence in it until it manages to go a whole week without blowing holds and saves. Bullpen apologists be damned.

 

Ohman has been outstanding against left handed hitters for several years now, and this year is no different. They're 2 for 20 with a 2B and 3 BB against him going into today, that's good no matter how much you remember a bad outing.

 

Howry's stuff isn't any different than year's past. He's not perfect, and that's why he's a situational reliever. His BABIP isn't in line with the amount of line drives he's giving up, his BAA will start coming down before too long, regardless of how angry everyone gets when he gets hit.

 

If you aren't going to be satisfied with a combination of Howry, Cotts, and Marmol getting you through the 7th, then you're being too difficult to please. Nobody is all that great until you get to the back of the pen, that's why they're middle relievers. Even then, Cotts has been a good reliever, Marmol has dynamic stuff(much like Wuertz), and Howry has been 8th inning caliber for several previous years. Getting back to the real point, if you're that dissatisfied with that setup, is Guzman really going to make you feel better about the pen?

If the Sox pen doesn't decide to suck like the Cubs one does today we lose 6-5, how would everyones tune sound then? We blow game after game and its not okay anymore.

 

The "tune" wouldn't change at all. If we lost 6-5, it'd mainly be on the shoulders of our offense and starting pitching. Its not like it was 5-0 and the bullpen gave up all the runs, Marquis left with it tied.

 

Wow, so you really would start complaining about the offense who scored a very winnable 5 runs and Marquis who had been our best pitcher all year? You would not be dissatisfied with the fact Howry blows another game in the 8th inning?

 

I would complain about Marquis giving up 5 earned runs, yes. What does his pitching this year have to do with anything? We're talking about one game. If you lose 6-5 in a game where your starter gave up 5 runs, he is on the hook for a bad outing. What are you trying to argue exactly?

 

I'm arguing the fact that Marquis' outing was an anomaly while the bullpen has been a perpetual problem that has cost us at least 10 games. I would forgive Marquis for a rough outing before I forgave Howry screwing over the team once again.

[Drew Doughty]

He said effective starter, how is that making him out to be like Tom Glavine?

 

He's not been determined to be an "effective starter" based on 2 starts.

 

what? I'm determining him to be effective based on his talent + his 3 starts this year + a body of minor league work. And it doesn't really matter if he's effective or not, his replacement is probably going to be worse than he would have been in the same situation.

[Soul]

The problem here is that several people on this thread genuinely think they'd be a better manager than Lou Piniella, yet can't come up with a better way to handle this situation than Lou is trying.

 

Sorry, but I'll call that out every single time.

 

hahahaha, is this for real? At least two different posters, maybe three came up with roles for the pen to be effective without the madness of demoting Guzman.

 

Hilarious. All of them are ridiculous, and would quite simply result in more burnout on the good arms we do have. Either that, or they wouldn't result in much change at all.

 

You can't have it both ways. You either lean on Wuertz, Ohman, and Dempster more and risk burning them out quicker, or you pitch Eyre and Howry and give up leads. Lou is making a move that provides a new resource in the pen. I don't like it, but these other ideas are woefully inadequate.

 

You can't carry deadweight in your pen, TT. That's just a fact.

[Drew Doughty]

Change for a sake of change is rarely a good idea.

 

Huh?

 

that's what you're advocating. you're saying he shouldn't be content with what he has -- which is fine -- so he should make a move. he doesn't have much he can do. moving guzman is not the right idea. pressure hendry to make a move or something, but don't move an effective starter to the bullpen. it's just a bad idea.

 

Pressure Hendry? Are you serious? Don't you think if there was a bullpen fix out there Hendry would be all over it?

 

Maybe, but probably not based on his career of making the wrong move. His solution for the pen frequently involves throwing money at veterans coming off of career years. I bet we end up with Troy Percival.

[C.C.]

BTW - Who is taking Guzman's spot?

[Drew Doughty]

The problem here is that several people on this thread genuinely think they'd be a better manager than Lou Piniella, yet can't come up with a better way to handle this situation than Lou is trying.

 

Sorry, but I'll call that out every single time.

 

hahahaha, is this for real? At least two different posters, maybe three came up with roles for the pen to be effective without the madness of demoting Guzman.

 

Hilarious. All of them are ridiculous, and would quite simply result in more burnout on the good arms we do have. Either that, or they wouldn't result in much change at all.

 

You can't have it both ways. You either lean on Wuertz, Ohman, and Dempster more and risk burning them out quicker, or you pitch Eyre and Howry and give up leads. Lou is making a move that provides a new resource in the pen. I don't like it, but these other ideas are woefully inadequate.

 

You can't carry deadweight in your pen, TT. That's just a fact.

 

so how is moving guzman to the pen a good move? just because other moves are bad doesn't mean you make a different bad move.

[Guest]

The problem here is that several people on this thread genuinely think they'd be a better manager than Lou Piniella, yet can't come up with a better way to handle this situation than Lou is trying.

 

Sorry, but I'll call that out every single time.

 

hahahaha, is this for real? At least two different posters, maybe three came up with roles for the pen to be effective without the madness of demoting Guzman.

 

Hilarious. All of them are ridiculous, and would quite simply result in more burnout on the good arms we do have. Either that, or they wouldn't result in much change at all.

 

You can't have it both ways. You either lean on Wuertz, Ohman, and Dempster more and risk burning them out quicker, or you pitch Eyre and Howry and give up leads. Lou is making a move that provides a new resource in the pen. I don't like it, but these other ideas are woefully inadequate.

 

You can't carry deadweight in your pen, TT. That's just a fact.

 

You claim Eyre and Howry are deadweight...but they're still on the team.

[VVMattVV]

Oh wow. This is what I won't buy into anymore, I've listened to it all year and have said it myself. Ohman is getting better, yet still sucks. What did he do today? Let gritty Erstad on, got Uribe out I believe, then walked AJ. Small sample sure, but its getting old. Despite the struggle, he is a decent loogy career wise so hes not all bad. Howry has been a disgrace, his numbers indicate exactly how hes pitched. His BABIP might me lower if his fastball wasn't straighter then a arrow. Hes terrible, Dusty taxed him and the 07' Cubs are seeing this first hand. Hes no longer an 8th inning guy. We can't say Howry, Marmol and Cotts will get us through the 7th, how many times have we had to call in our best reliever Wuertz to get us out of those early situations? Do you want to see wild Marmol or Howry pitching with the bases loaded? The bullpen is a joke and should have no confidence in it until it manages to go a whole week without blowing holds and saves. Bullpen apologists be damned.

 

Ohman has been outstanding against left handed hitters for several years now, and this year is no different. They're 2 for 20 with a 2B and 3 BB against him going into today, that's good no matter how much you remember a bad outing.

 

Howry's stuff isn't any different than year's past. He's not perfect, and that's why he's a situational reliever. His BABIP isn't in line with the amount of line drives he's giving up, his BAA will start coming down before too long, regardless of how angry everyone gets when he gets hit.

 

If you aren't going to be satisfied with a combination of Howry, Cotts, and Marmol getting you through the 7th, then you're being too difficult to please. Nobody is all that great until you get to the back of the pen, that's why they're middle relievers. Even then, Cotts has been a good reliever, Marmol has dynamic stuff(much like Wuertz), and Howry has been 8th inning caliber for several previous years. Getting back to the real point, if you're that dissatisfied with that setup, is Guzman really going to make you feel better about the pen?

If the Sox pen doesn't decide to suck like the Cubs one does today we lose 6-5, how would everyones tune sound then? We blow game after game and its not okay anymore.

 

The "tune" wouldn't change at all. If we lost 6-5, it'd mainly be on the shoulders of our offense and starting pitching. Its not like it was 5-0 and the bullpen gave up all the runs, Marquis left with it tied.

 

Wow, so you really would start complaining about the offense who scored a very winnable 5 runs and Marquis who had been our best pitcher all year? You would not be dissatisfied with the fact Howry blows another game in the 8th inning?

 

I would complain about Marquis giving up 5 earned runs, yes. What does his pitching this year have to do with anything? We're talking about one game. If you lose 6-5 in a game where your starter gave up 5 runs, he is on the hook for a bad outing. What are you trying to argue exactly?

 

I'm arguing the fact that Marquis' outing was an anomaly while the bullpen has been a perpetual problem that has cost us at least 10 games. I would forgive Marquis for a rough outing before I forgave Howry screwing over the team once again.

 

But that wasn't the original argument. We weren't talking about how Marquis has pitched this year, we were talking about one game. You were saying everyone would change their stance on this move if the offense didn't come through, but thats wrong. You are arguing that:

 

The starter gives up 5 runs in 5 IP.

The bullpen gives up 1 run in 4 IP. (which, if we lost 6-5, it would have been)

The offense scores 5 runs.

 

And its the pen's fault.

[Soul]

He said effective starter, how is that making him out to be like Tom Glavine?

 

He's not been determined to be an "effective starter" based on 2 starts.

 

what? I'm determining him to be effective based on his talent + his 3 starts this year + a body of minor league work. And it doesn't really matter if he's effective or not, his replacement is probably going to be worse than he would have been in the same situation.

 

His ERA was over 10 in the minors this year. What on earth are you talking about? He's had 2 good starts this year, last year he was terrible.

 

You seem to want to put him on the level of a Lilly or a Marquis. He's a young arm who recently had a couple good starts. Hopefully it turns into more.

[Guest]

BTW - Who is taking Guzman's spot?

 

Lou hasn't named a pitcher yet...Sean Marshall is the leading candidate and Wade Miller and Ryan Dempster are potential candidates too.

[CubColtPacer]

He said effective starter, how is that making him out to be like Tom Glavine?

 

He's not been determined to be an "effective starter" based on 2 starts.

 

what? I'm determining him to be effective based on his talent + his 3 starts this year + a body of minor league work. And it doesn't really matter if he's effective or not, his replacement is probably going to be worse than he would have been in the same situation.

 

That minor league work hasn't been amazing since the injuries.

 

He hasn't faced a full ML lineup since he came back. He faced the worst team in the majors in runs per game, then he faced a good offensive team without its top slugger, then he faced a complete forfeit lineup without its top 3 guys. His level of competition hasn't been good at all.

 

His talent I would give you-and his talent is the reason I wish they would have started him until he proved he wasn't effective there this year.

Edited May 20, 2007 by CubColtPacer

[Guest]

He said effective starter, how is that making him out to be like Tom Glavine?

 

He's not been determined to be an "effective starter" based on 2 starts.

 

what? I'm determining him to be effective based on his talent + his 3 starts this year + a body of minor league work. And it doesn't really matter if he's effective or not, his replacement is probably going to be worse than he would have been in the same situation.

 

His ERA was over 10 in the minors this year. What on earth are you talking about? He's had 2 good starts this year, last year he was terrible.

 

You seem to want to put him on the level of a Lilly or a Marquis. He's a young arm who recently had a couple good starts. Hopefully it turns into more.

 

The Cubs had him working on specific things in the minors (in terms of his slider and fastball) which hurt his command in the minors and led to his bad outings.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The problem here is that several people on this thread genuinely think they'd be a better manager than Lou Piniella, yet can't come up with a better way to handle this situation than Lou is trying.

 

Sorry, but I'll call that out every single time.

 

hahahaha, is this for real? At least two different posters, maybe three came up with roles for the pen to be effective without the madness of demoting Guzman.

 

Hilarious. All of them are ridiculous, and would quite simply result in more burnout on the good arms we do have. Either that, or they wouldn't result in much change at all.

 

You can't have it both ways. You either lean on Wuertz, Ohman, and Dempster more and risk burning them out quicker, or you pitch Eyre and Howry and give up leads. Lou is making a move that provides a new resource in the pen. I don't like it, but these other ideas are woefully inadequate.

 

You can't carry deadweight in your pen, TT. That's just a fact.

 

Every pen has guys who aren't very good. For us that's Eyre. He can pitch when there's blowouts or our starter gets rocked. Cotts, Howry, and Marmol are plenty adequate for short/middle relief, Cotts has been effective, Howry is better than his results this year, and Marmol has great stuff. Ohman's around to get out a LH too, giving you two options from either side. Then you have the straight forward setup-closer situation with Wuertz and Dempster.

 

You've got it in your mind that Howry is an abomination beyond saving and that any solution to the pen that keeps him and Eyre in it will result in burnout. That's wrong.

[Soul]

The problem here is that several people on this thread genuinely think they'd be a better manager than Lou Piniella, yet can't come up with a better way to handle this situation than Lou is trying.

 

Sorry, but I'll call that out every single time.

 

hahahaha, is this for real? At least two different posters, maybe three came up with roles for the pen to be effective without the madness of demoting Guzman.

 

Hilarious. All of them are ridiculous, and would quite simply result in more burnout on the good arms we do have. Either that, or they wouldn't result in much change at all.

 

You can't have it both ways. You either lean on Wuertz, Ohman, and Dempster more and risk burning them out quicker, or you pitch Eyre and Howry and give up leads. Lou is making a move that provides a new resource in the pen. I don't like it, but these other ideas are woefully inadequate.

 

You can't carry deadweight in your pen, TT. That's just a fact.

 

so how is moving guzman to the pen a good move? just because other moves are bad doesn't mean you make a different bad move.

 

Let's get back to the original point. How is calling Lou stupid a valid assertion when you don't have a better solution?

[Drew Doughty]

He said effective starter, how is that making him out to be like Tom Glavine?

 

He's not been determined to be an "effective starter" based on 2 starts.

 

what? I'm determining him to be effective based on his talent + his 3 starts this year + a body of minor league work. And it doesn't really matter if he's effective or not, his replacement is probably going to be worse than he would have been in the same situation.

 

His ERA was over 10 in the minors this year. What on earth are you talking about? He's had 2 good starts this year, last year he was terrible.

 

You seem to want to put him on the level of a Lilly or a Marquis. He's a young arm who recently had a couple good starts. Hopefully it turns into more.

 

No, I want to put him on the level of effective 5th starter. You want me to put him on the level of Lilly/Marquis because it makes you feel better about your point.