Prior visits Yocum and Andrews; THT on Prior's Mechanics

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It was awesome to see the usual idiot squad posting in the 5 pages after this broke. I'm glad I just skipped to the end.

 

How is this anything other than a personal attack?

 

Because I'm not specifying anything and no one knows who I'm referring to?

 

It appears to me that you just called every poster who has been contributing to this thread an idiot.

 

Just like if I said, if you don't agree that Prior's ineffectiveness is due to his overuse by Baker, then you must be a douchebag.

[badger1679666666]

It was awesome to see the usual idiot squad posting in the 5 pages after this broke. I'm glad I just skipped to the end.

 

How is this anything other than a personal attack?

 

Because I'm not specifying anything and no one knows who I'm referring to?

 

It appears to me that you just called every poster who has been contributing to this thread an idiot.

 

Just like if I said, if you don't agree that Prior's ineffectiveness is due to his overuse by Baker, then you must be a douchebag.

 

Well I wasn't. Whatever, I probably shouldn't have posted that but I'm sick of reading crap posted. I should just avoid Prior threads.

[Mephistopheles]

stop calling my posts crap

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think he was calling my posts crap and calling me an idiot.

[Mephistopheles]

and there's something wrong with those observations?

 

im kidding! :lol:

[Exile on Waveland]

Pitching is a completely natural arm motion. No injury could possibly come from it. In fact, flinging your arm forward to throw a baseball over 90 miles an hour 100 times in less than three hours is actually good for arms. Torque is healthy. Doing that 30+ times a year is downright therapeutic. It's what makes men out of boys. Or, in Mark Prior's case, men out of little soft girly-men.

 

We should actually thank Dusty for this so-called "abuse", otherwise we might be stuck with soft pitchers and would have no idea who was tough and who wasn't. Back in 1963 every pitcher threw 300 pitches and started 162 games. They were real men and never got hurt. Mark Prior is hurt because he's soft, Dusty merely was trying to toughen all our pitchers up, or, better yet, weed out the sissies. Bravo Dusty, bravo.

 

Ha, from the same town as me and sarcastic as hell. We'd get along well! :lol:

 

Bloomington, eh? You a student?

[sonofsamiam]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

[pete the dog]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

[Mizzou]

I have always been a big Mark Prior fan and supporter and have defended him on numerous occassions. But I am officially done with him. I'm tired of getting my hopes up only to find him hurt yet again. If he comes back healthy, great. But I certainly won't be wasting any time worrying about it.

[CubinNY]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

 

What the hell are you talking about? I just showed you 7 pitchers whose career were shortented or their effectiveness was lessoned, or were out of baseball at an early age after a) high innings and b) high pitch counts. Sonofsamiam just provided you with five more.

 

You don't need to do regression analysis or complicated statistics to look at those data and be able to draw an inference.

 

The obvious answer is that pitching all those IP and pitches per inning contributed to whatever results that occured. However, that doesn't rule out other factors too.

 

Yet, it also doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to come to the conclusion that it's probably not a good idea to have a young pitcher throw when they are fatigued.

[Mephistopheles]

lol the post above is hilarious and wrong. hilarious but wrong. wow.

[abuck1220]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

 

geez...

[CubinNY]

lol the post above is hilarious and wrong. hilarious but wrong. wow.

You are such a word smith. Group research is only useful for making generalizations about a population. The fact that arm injuries occur after high innings pitched is not a group design question. Arm injuries are an individual phenonenon.

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/palmeji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/spahnwa01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/seaveto01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kaatji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/blylebe01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/roberro01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jenkife01.shtml

 

there i got eight who did the same and had nothing happen to them!!!

 

so i must also be able to infer that pitchers who throw more innings when theyre young are durable until theyre 40

 

its the exact same line of reasoning you did

 

omg lame

[Mephistopheles]

lol the post above is hilarious and wrong. hilarious but wrong. wow.

You are such a word smith. Group research is only useful for making generalizations about a population. The fact that arm injuries occur after high innings pitched is not a group design question. Arm injuries are an individual phenonenon.

 

and if we're saying that high PCs lead to injuries for pitchers...arent pitchers.....GASP PLURAL .....a group!?

[CubinNY]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1480

 

PAP study done in 2002

 

Looking at the percentage of each group of pitcher that lie above the trendline, we discover that:

 

 

31% of all injured pitchers had above average career PAP totals for their career pitch counts.

9% of all healthy pitchers had above average career PAP totals for their career pitch counts.

This suggests that high PAP pitchers are more than three times as likely to be injured as low PAP pitchers of who've thrown similar numbers of pitches. We have our first piece of evidence that PAP provides predictive information beyond what pitch counts alone can tell us.

 

As a side note, the careful reader will note that there are four data points that exceed a career-to-date PAP total of 2,000,000. These four pitcher-seasons are all from the same pitcher, and far exceed the workload amassed by any other pitcher. This workhorse is, of course, Randy Johnson, whose career workload looks like a mistake in the chart. Whatever the results of our analysis of PAP and injuries, Johnson is almost certainly an extreme outlier, a remarkable physical specimen for whom comparison to regular major league pitchers may not apply.

 

But pitchers are not all created the same.

 

The research presented here has shown, in essence, that not all pitches are created equal. It is the high pitch count outings that represent the greatest risk for both short-term ineffectiveness, and long-term potential for injury. The PAP^3 system represents the most comprehensive attempt to date to quantify the impact of starting pitcher usage over both time horizons, allowing us to estimate, based on empirical evidence, the tradeoffs of having a star pitcher throw deep into a game.

Edited April 13, 2007 by CubinNY

[hitamprun]

High stress innings?????? WTF!!!!!!

 

I've heard it all now. Maybe MLB should come up with a rule that all starters have to be pulled when they reach 100 pitches. Also, they could set another rule that caps out pitches thrown per week, per month etc.

 

It wouldn't make a bit of difference, you would still see the same amount of injuries, because the pitchers today don't throw as much as then those of the past, yet they get hurt more. Pitch count is not the answer, you need to look elswhere.

[Mizzou]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/palmeji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/spahnwa01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/seaveto01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kaatji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/blylebe01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/roberro01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jenkife01.shtml

 

there i got eight who did the same and had nothing happen to them!!!

 

so i must also be able to infer that pitchers who throw more innings when theyre young are durable until theyre 40

 

its the exact same line of reasoning you did

 

omg lame

You might be able to convey your point better if you didn't come off like an arrogant jackass in every post.

[badger1679666666]

Now Vance, THAT is a personal attack ^^^^

 

:lol:

[Mephistopheles]

good job contradicting that pitch counts lead to injuries. theyre saying a higher PAP vs average PAP for that PC leads to injuries, which says nothing about more pitches leading to injuries.

 

 

i should also note that PAP can only be calculated since 1988 or so. PCs limits were already being introduced then. theres no way to compare the 60s and 70s when 150 pitches wasnt unheard of.

[CubinNY]

good job contradicting that pitch counts lead to injuries. theyre saying a higher PAP vs average PAP for that PC leads to injuries, which says nothing about more pitches leading to injuries.

I'll simply provide the definition for you:

 

PAP^3 is the name for the new system for measuring pitcher abuse via pitch counts introduced in Baseball Prospectus 2001.

[KingCubsFan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/palmeji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/spahnwa01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/seaveto01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kaatji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/blylebe01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/roberro01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jenkife01.shtml

 

there i got eight who did the same and had nothing happen to them!!!

 

so i must also be able to infer that pitchers who throw more innings when theyre young are durable until theyre 40

 

its the exact same line of reasoning you did

 

omg lame

You might be able to convey your point better if you didn't come off like an arrogant jackass in every post.

You also might convey your point better if your examples weren't all Hall of Famers or borderline Hall of Famers. These people are exceptions, not the rule. Back in the day, injuries usually just ended careers early on, and they weren't as publicized

[pete the dog]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

 

What the hell are you talking about? I just showed you 7 pitchers whose career were shortented or their effectiveness was lessoned, or were out of baseball at an early age after a) high innings and b) high pitch counts. Sonofsamiam just provided you with five more.

 

You don't need to do regression analysis or complicated statistics to look at those data and be able to draw an inference.

 

The obvious answer is that pitching all those IP and pitches per inning contributed to whatever results that occured. However, that doesn't rule out other factors too.

 

Yet, it also doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to come to the conclusion that it's probably not a good idea to have a young pitcher throw when they are fatigued.

 

 

No, what the hell are you talking about? You obviously have no understanding of inferential statistics.

 

But thanks for posting the PAP data. It's nice that someone out there understands the kinds of data that are required to back a claim.

 

Sheesh.

[Mephistopheles]

and im sure he just picked guys that were notorious burnouts that he remembered. I am sure I can find a lot of guys who are not HOFers who had long careers.

 

I found this quote weird:

 

31% of all injured pitchers had above average career PAP totals for their career pitch counts.

 

Now, obviously, if 31% of all injured pitchers had above average career PAP totals for their career PCs, then that must mean that 69% of all injured pitchers had career PAP totals below their career pitch counts.

 

The last statistic just shows that most pitchers now who are healthy are young and are getting babied more often. There's no doubt in my mind that average PAP per PC today is lower than it was fifteen years ago.

 

I'll simply provide the definition for you:

 

PAP^3 is the name for the new system for measuring pitcher abuse via pitch counts introduced in Baseball Prospectus 2001.

 

Don't patronize me. I know exactly what PAP is and I know how it's calculated.

 

Im not saying high stress pitches dont lead to injuries, im just saying its overblown. Minor league P injury rate is about the same as the rate in the majors. I highly doubt any minor league Ps have a very high PAP, which doesnt even kick in until 100 pitches. My point is that its more likely that the mechanics are the things that cause the injuries the most. Adding a lot of pitches to bad mechanics increases the likelihood of getting hurt. The pitches themself, probably dont mean much.

[abuck1220]

High stress innings?????? WTF!!!!!!

 

I've heard it all now. Maybe MLB should come up with a rule that all starters have to be pulled when they reach 100 pitches. Also, they could set another rule that caps out pitches thrown per week, per month etc.

 

It wouldn't make a bit of difference, you would still see the same amount of injuries, because the pitchers today don't throw as much as then those of the past, yet they get hurt more. Pitch count is not the answer, you need to look elswhere.

 

and apparently you think the answer is manliness.