[kujay]

Hall = Soriano?

 

"This is me leaving," said the credibility.

[Schwarber Fan]

Zambrano>Sheets IMO as well...

[Drew Doughty]

Estrada-Miller > Barrett-Blanco

Barrett is probably better offensively than Estrada, but Miller >>> Blanco so the Brewers get the edge

 

Why are the backups even being compared here? Even so, I'd much rather have Blanco, so that point's null.

 

That's my only complaint. The rest is at least semi-debatable.

[NoDak]

Hall = Soriano?

 

"This is me leaving," said the credibility.

 

I agreed with you at first glance, but after further looking, I don't know.

Soriano had a line of .277/.351/.560 and Hall had a line of .270/.345/.553.

Soriano's OPS+ 132, Hall 126. Hall is going into his 27 year old season. Soriano is going into his 31 year old season. This covers over 600 PAs for both so sample size isn't a huge issue. Hall has a better SB% (but a very small sample size). Short story, I didn't know Hall was THAT good!

 

I do take issue with his analysis of starting pitchers. Giving Sheets = Zambrano with a plus for Sheets if "completely healthy." Sheets, even when "completely healthy" is no match for Z. Looking at their career stats it comes out more strongly in favor of Zambrano. Looking at last year's stats looks grossly in favor of Zambrano. Even though Sheets wasn't healthy that year. Going back to his last "healthy season" (3 years ago) he was still not as good as Z was that same year with Z 2 years younger.

 

Thanks for the post though. As you said, it is interesting to see how other team's fans look at CHC.

[forbez18]

I would take Big Z over Sheets just about any day of the week. Zambranno is much more durrable and his stuff is at least even if not better thne Sheets at this point.

 

They might have some better players at certain positions, but I think if you listed the best vs. the best. Like Lee vs. Hall, and then ARam vs. Fielder, and then Soriano vs. Weeks. That starts to seperate the teams because I think the top three players on the Cubs are better then the top three for Mil. or just about any other team in their division. Pujos, Edmonds, Rolen are just about equal.

[CubColtPacer]

Estrada-Miller > Barrett-Blanco

Barrett is probably better offensively than Estrada, but Miller >>> Blanco so the Brewers get the edge

 

Why are the backups even being compared here? Even so, I'd much rather have Blanco, so that point's null.

 

That's my only complaint. The rest is at least semi-debatable.

 

I read the rest, but I had a hard time after that first one-to give the catcher edge to the Brewers, which is one of the positions that the Cubs have the biggest edges at made it extremely hard to put value on the rest of it, although I do agree with many of the other positions (although certainly not all of them).

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd want to look at the data before getting into too many specifics, but just beginning with the catchers, he seems a little off.

 

While I realize he's taking defense into account, Barrett's last three seasons of OPS+ are 121,113, and 105 respectively. He's improving as an offensive force and even with some regression should post an OPS+ above 110.

 

Estrada's OPS+ the last three years is 91,71, 114. Estrada has one good year and then falls into the below average category. At best, Estrada likely produces a 100 OPS+ and that's being optimistic.

 

Blanco's defense is as strong as Miller and I don't see the difference in offensive contributions being masked by the differences in the defense from the two primary catchers.

 

So, right there I think the edge would go to the Cubs on that position. I may look at the others later.

[UMFan83]

Mine:

 

Estrada/Miller < Barrett and Blanco (backups are probably included because they are used much more then other positions)

 

Fielder < Lee

 

Weeks > DeRosa

 

Hardy > Izturis

 

Koskie < Ramirez

 

Mench-Jenkins = Murton-Floyd

 

Hall < Soriano

 

Hart < Jones

 

Sheets < Zambrano

Capuano > Hill

Suppan = Lilly

Bush > Miller

Vargas < Prior/Marquis

 

Mil Bullpen < Chc Bullpen

 

Mil Bench > Chc Bench

 

Yost > Piniella IMO

[David]

The fact that I find it hard to strongly argue against his "Hall=Soriano" assessment makes me particularly sad, knowing that Hall just signed for $24 mil over 4 years. :x

[CubColtPacer]

The fact that I find it hard to strongly argue against his "Hall=Soriano" assessment makes me particularly sad, knowing that Hall just signed for $24 mil over 4 years. :x

 

That wasn't in free agency though-big difference.

[David]

The fact that I find it hard to strongly argue against his "Hall=Soriano" assessment makes me particularly sad, knowing that Hall just signed for $24 mil over 4 years. :x

 

That wasn't in free agency though-big difference.

 

True. But not a 4 year and $102 million difference. :cry:

[CubColtPacer]

The fact that I find it hard to strongly argue against his "Hall=Soriano" assessment makes me particularly sad, knowing that Hall just signed for $24 mil over 4 years. :x

 

That wasn't in free agency though-big difference.

 

True. But not a 4 year and $102 million difference. :cry:

 

Apparently this year's market says differently-the Soriano contract was apparently not like the A-Rod contract where the Rangers bid much higher than anyone else was going to go-someone was going to pay Soriano 120+ million this year.

 

Soriano got what is market value in his market-so did Hall. They just happen to be in completely different markets. Obviously, I'd rather have Hall at his salary-but he wasn't available for us to sign.

[mg420]

Estrada-Miller > Barrett-Blanco

Barrett is probably better offensively than Estrada, but Miller >>> Blanco so the Brewers get the edge

 

Why are the backups even being compared here? Even so, I'd much rather have Blanco, so that point's null.

 

That's my only complaint. The rest is at least semi-debatable.

 

I read the rest, but I had a hard time after that first one-to give the catcher edge to the Brewers, which is one of the positions that the Cubs have the biggest edges at made it extremely hard to put value on the rest of it, although I do agree with many of the other positions (although certainly not all of them).

i thought the same thing. barrett & blanco had ops's of .885 & .723 compared to .772 & .712 from estrada & miller.

[CoolHandLuke]

I agree with the assesment that a healthy Sheets is better than Zambrano.

[mg420]

I agree with the assesment that a healthy Sheets is better than Zambrano.

 

so a career 3.83 era in 1088 ip is better than a 3.29 in 977 ip? i think their whip's might be close but i bet zambrano has a much better baa. without a doubt advantage Z.

[CoolHandLuke]

I don't like my ace pitcher walking more than 100 batters, and showing no signs of improving in that department. Sheets took longer to find his dominance but when he did he was superior to Zambrano. He hasn't been healthy since then, and it's possible it was a fluke year, but I'd still take him over Z.

[CoolHandLuke]

I don't like my ace pitcher walking more than 100 batters, and showing no signs of improving in that department. Sheets took longer to find his dominance but when he did he was superior to Zambrano. He hasn't been healthy since then, and it's possible it was a fluke year, but

I'd still take him over Z

.

 

Seriously?

 

Z for me, Sheets is Prior's cousin!

 

Assuming health. (I know cub fan's of all people know you can't do this)

 

Actually I have an unfounded gut feeling telling me Zambrano is going to get hurt in the not too distant future.

[Derwood]

I agree with the assesment that a healthy Sheets is better than Zambrano.

 

too bad we've never, ever seen a healthy sheets. he's like wood and prior combined up there

[mg420]

I don't like my ace pitcher walking more than 100 batters, and showing no signs of improving in that department. Sheets took longer to find his dominance but when he did he was superior to Zambrano. He hasn't been healthy since then, and it's possible it was a fluke year, but

I'd still take him over Z

.

 

Seriously?

 

Z for me, Sheets is Prior's cousin!

 

Assuming health. (I know cub fan's of all people know you can't do this)

 

Actually I have an unfounded gut feeling telling me Zambrano is going to get hurt in the not too distant future.

 

i would say the chance that sheets gets hurt again is greater than the chance that z does. z does walk alot but he makes up for it by striking out alot of batters and being very hard to hit. if he can keep his walks down he is an easy 20+ game winner & cy young canidate. he is also 3 years younger than sheets.

[Amazing_Grace]

They should be comparing Sheets to Prior, since the odds of either being completely healthy are about the same.

 

Other than that I mostly agree. Pretty meaningless at this point since one injury changes the entire picture.

Edited February 7, 2007 by Amazing_Grace

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I've already debunked his ranking of catchers. I'll agree that Lee is better than Fielder, though that one could get close if Lee returns to career norms and Fielder keeps improving.

 

Now, I don't think it's a given that Weeks is better than DeRosa either. He admits he doesn't know much about DeRosa, so I'd reccomend him doing a little research before trying to rank players. After looking at the numbers, I'd probably rank them about even, though over the past two seasons DeRosa has outperformed Weeks.

 

Weeks' OPS+ in his two seasons is 97 and 90 respectively. Over those same two seasons, DeRosa has posted a 106 and 98 OPS+ respectively. For their offensive performance to be equal, Weeks will have to continue to improve (which at 24 is likely) while DeRosa declines. My guess is that both will be right around 100 OPS+. Both are adequate defensively, so I really have trouble seeing where either one is a value over the other. Weeks certainly has more hype than DeRosa, but that hype and sixty cents will get a coke most places around here.

[A New Era]

Do more Vance!

[Laura]

Buster Olney picks the Brewers to finish 2nd in the division, behind the Cardinals.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

He says that Mench/Jenkins = Murton/Floyd.

 

Mench has a career OPS+ of 101, but was horrible after leaving Texas last year. His OPS+ over the last three seasons has been 85, 106, and 113.

 

Murton has an career OPS+ of 111. His past two seasons have been 103 and 135. I'd give Murton the edge on the RH side of the LF platoons.

 

Jenkins has a 117 career OPS+ to Floyd's 120. Jenkins past three seasons, he's posted 102, 131, and 108 OPS+ while Floyd has been 91, 125, and 110. They look to be comparable players.

 

I think it's ok to call this position a push, since if healthy Floyd and Jenkins are comparable, Murton is better than Mench and so I'd make this a slight edge to the Cubs.

[TruffleShuffle]

Both are adequate defensively, so I really have trouble seeing where either one is a value over the other. Weeks certainly has more hype than DeRosa, but that hype and sixty cents will get a coke most places around here.

 

I think DeRosa is pretty sure-handed and is probably better than average defensively for a 2B. I don't know about Weeks' range, but he's made a truckload of errors (more than 20 in under 100 games, 2 years in a row).