Jayson Stark:Cubs Open Check Book, Raise Expectations

[Banedon]

Prior? Even when he was "healthy"....the last few years....he has been very average. Whatever happened....I dont know....but the "Prior as Saviour" idea.....died a few years ago. I think most fans haved moved on....its the smart thing to do.

 

If by "average" you mean he wasn't the 2003 version, then fine, but that was just a great year...he was still an above average pitcher in 2005, the last time he had a healthy season.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Prior? Even when he was "healthy"....the last few years....he has been very average. Whatever happened....I dont know....but the "Prior as Saviour" idea.....died a few years ago. I think most fans haved moved on....its the smart thing to do.

 

Prior in 2005 had an ERA+ of 116. In 2004, it was 113. So with the exception of last season (ERA+ 64), Prior is at least 13% above the average pitcher.

[Backtobanks]

The key to Cubs success is going to be the health of Mark Prior, IMO. If he is healthy to the point where he can go out and pitch every 5th day then I think the Cubs are the team in the NL central.

 

The NL as a whole is not very good. There is not one team in the NL that scares me. Mets are going to have rotation problems, the Cards took a step back in their efforts to repeat, Houston lost Andy and Roger, the Padres have a hole at 3b and at the back end of the rotation. I don't see why the Cubs could not represent the NL in the World Series this year. Obviously health is going to play a major factor for them, but I still think they have the most depth in their bullpen and rotation than any other team in the NL this season.

 

I think the Cubs can be pretty good as they stand now, but a healthy Prior puts them way ahead of the rest of the division. I think a lot of us forget that a healthy Prior would give Zambrano a run for the ace of the staff. The real advantage of Prior's health is that it "slots" the rest of the starters to a position in which they would more naturally fall. For example, Lilly or Hill as a #2 starter is a little shaky, but Hill and Lilly as your #3 and #4 starters really looks pretty good.

[BigbadB]

DeRosa I would be okay with. If it's Izturis, just shoot me now.

 

If Izturis is putting up the ol' .300 OBP line, I doubt he stays in the 2 hole. We have Lou, not Dusty. :D I'd be pretty bummed about Izzy in the 2 hole as well.

 

Hopefully the Cubs scouts are right about DeRosa.

 

If Soriano and DeRosa produced the same OBP this coming year as they did last year, .351/.357, this could be a very good year for Lee and Ramirez. Their career OBP's .325/.331 leave a little something more to be desired, but I like that they are trending upward rather than downward like Pierre.

 

I also just noticed that DeRosa has played some shortstop each year he's been in the bigs. Hmmmm.

[USSoccer]

Despite the flaws on this roster-and there are some glaring flaws-I fully expect this team to contend.

 

Not so much because it's a great collection of talent, but because the NL is so very bad.

 

Much will likely hang on Piniella's (and Hendry's) ability to manage the roster. Will they allow Marquis to stay in the rotation by virtue of his stupid contract if he's terrible, and Guzman is ripping it up at Iowa? What about LF? Will Piniella value Murton or aquiesce to playing Floyd in a straight platoon? How much rope does Dempster get? Do they play Pie in CF? Jones in CF?

 

Then there's the other stuff. Will we see forfiet lineups? A team that's poor at fundamental things like hitting the cutoff man and not getting picked off? Will he abuse his pitchers and leave them in past reasonable pitch totals? Will he be able to not only read a split sheet, but recognize things like reverse splits and sample size?

 

As much as health, the great unknown remains Piniella.

Edited February 6, 2007 by USSoccer

[bhogg]

Name one NL team that has no question marks. Name one that's solid at every position.

 

There aren't any.

 

Face it guys, the Cubs have just as good a chance to win the NL this year as anyone else.

 

I'd rather not hear about how we have to make up X number of wins because that is just not the case. That would be the case if all of last year's roster was being brought back.

 

Every team, including the Yanks and BoSox have to have a good combination of solid play and health to be successful. The cubs are no different.

 

 

That's not my bold prediction that the cubs will win the NL. I have no idea if it will happen. However, I cannot say that the Cardinals or anyone else is head and shoulders above the cubs for the upcoming year.

[KingCubsFan]

Prior? Even when he was "healthy"....the last few years....he has been very average. Whatever happened....I dont know....but the "Prior as Saviour" idea.....died a few years ago. I think most fans haved moved on....its the smart thing to do.

 

Prior in 2005 had an ERA+ of 116. In 2004, it was 113. So with the exception of last season (ERA+ 64), Prior is at least 13% above the average pitcher.

What was his ERA+ after he came back from the elbow injury?

[goonys evil twin]

Prior? Even when he was "healthy"....the last few years....he has been very average. Whatever happened....I dont know....but the "Prior as Saviour" idea.....died a few years ago. I think most fans haved moved on....its the smart thing to do.

 

Prior in 2005 had an ERA+ of 116. In 2004, it was 113. So with the exception of last season (ERA+ 64), Prior is at least 13% above the average pitcher.

What was his ERA+ after he came back from the elbow injury?

 

Don't know, but he was quite good, and well above average.

[goonys evil twin]

Name one NL team that has no question marks. Name one that's solid at every position.

 

That's not my bold prediction that the cubs will win the NL. I have no idea if it will happen. However, I cannot say that the Cardinals or anyone else is head and shoulders above the cubs for the upcoming year.

 

That's all well and good, and fine and dandy. Not to mention probably true. But the fact that we're 5 years into the Hendry regime and considering ourselves a possibility to contend due largely to a crap league is extremely frustrating to me. From where this team stood at the end of the 90's, the Cubs should have become near locks to win 90 games each season by now. I'm so pissed at how flagrantly Hendry pissed away that opportunity. And I don't buy for a minute that it was mostly due to luck and health. It's about his philosophies. Until and unless Hendry puts together something like back to back 90+ win playoff teams, I will carry a heavy dose of skepticism about his roster.

[MPrior]

Despite the flaws on this roster-and there are some glaring flaws-I funny expect this team to contend.

 

Freudian slip?

[cjbucks]

Despite the flaws on this roster-and there are some glaring flaws-I funny expect this team to contend.

 

Not so much because it's a great collection of talent, but because the NL is so very bad.

 

Much will likely hang on Piniella's (and Hendry's) ability to manage the roster. Will they allow Marquis to stay in the rotation by virtue of his stupid contract if he's terrible, and Guzman is ripping it up at Iowa? What about LF? Will Piniella value Murton or aquiesce to playing Floyd in a straight platoon? How much rope does Dempster get? Do they play Pie in CF? Jones in CF?

 

Then there's the other stuff. Will we see forfiet lineups? A team that's poor at fundamental things like hitting the cutoff man and not getting picked off? Will he abuse his pitchers and leave them in past reasonable pitch totals? Will he be able to not only read a split sheet, but recognize things like reverse splits and sample size?

 

As much as health, the great unknown remains Piniella.

 

Forfeit Lineups............ is that a new term?? I haven't heard it before but that is the best way to describe some of them................sadly. :)

[A New Era]

Despite the flaws on this roster-and there are some glaring flaws-I funny expect this team to contend.

 

Not so much because it's a great collection of talent, but because the NL is so very bad.

 

Much will likely hang on Piniella's (and Hendry's) ability to manage the roster. Will they allow Marquis to stay in the rotation by virtue of his stupid contract if he's terrible, and Guzman is ripping it up at Iowa? What about LF? Will Piniella value Murton or aquiesce to playing Floyd in a straight platoon? How much rope does Dempster get? Do they play Pie in CF? Jones in CF?

 

Then there's the other stuff. Will we see forfiet lineups? A team that's poor at fundamental things like hitting the cutoff man and not getting picked off? Will he abuse his pitchers and leave them in past reasonable pitch totals? Will he be able to not only read a split sheet, but recognize things like reverse splits and sample size?

 

As much as health, the great unknown remains Piniella.

 

Forfeit Lineups............ is that a new term?? I haven't heard it before but that is the best way to describe some of them................sadly. :)

 

He means baker line-ups. .

 

Pierre

Perez

Walker

Aram

Jones

Blanco

Bynum

Pagan

 

additionally,

 

Will Piniella value Murton or aquiesce to playing Floyd

 

you got this from pirates of the caribbean, didn't you? Admit it. :lol:

[nilodnayr]

I wonder what the reaction would be if Dayn Perry's name was in the By Line of this article....ohh wait.

[USSoccer]

 

Will Piniella value Murton or aquiesce to playing Floyd

 

you got this from pirates of the caribbean, didn't you? Admit it. :lol:

 

No. It's simply a good word to use in this context.

[USSoccer]

Despite the flaws on this roster-and there are some glaring flaws-I funny expect this team to contend.

 

Freudian slip?

 

Nice catch. :D

[USSoccer]

Despite the flaws on this roster-and there are some glaring flaws-I funny expect this team to contend.

 

Not so much because it's a great collection of talent, but because the NL is so very bad.

 

Much will likely hang on Piniella's (and Hendry's) ability to manage the roster. Will they allow Marquis to stay in the rotation by virtue of his stupid contract if he's terrible, and Guzman is ripping it up at Iowa? What about LF? Will Piniella value Murton or aquiesce to playing Floyd in a straight platoon? How much rope does Dempster get? Do they play Pie in CF? Jones in CF?

 

Then there's the other stuff. Will we see forfiet lineups? A team that's poor at fundamental things like hitting the cutoff man and not getting picked off? Will he abuse his pitchers and leave them in past reasonable pitch totals? Will he be able to not only read a split sheet, but recognize things like reverse splits and sample size?

 

As much as health, the great unknown remains Piniella.

 

Forfeit Lineups............ is that a new term?? I haven't heard it before but that is the best way to describe some of them................sadly. :)

 

 

Forfiet lineups=a terrible joke of a lineup, usually thrown out there at the end of a series, or the day game after a night game on the road, featuring your entire bench starting, in a random mess of a lineup that couldn't possibly produce victory even if the starting pitcher throws a 2 hitter.

[radarluv1]

i'm hoping our 25 man roster doesnt really allow a "forfeit" lineup. blanco days will give a weak 7/8/9 with itzuris in there. i guess if cedeno/itzuris/blano are around at once that would be prett brutal, but i cant think of a good reason to ever have cedeno play 2b.

[USSoccer]

i'm hoping our 25 man roster doesnt really allow a "forfeit" lineup. blanco days will give a weak 7/8/9 with itzuris in there. i guess if cedeno/itzuris/blano are around at once that would be prett brutal, but i cant think of a good reason to ever have cedeno play 2b.

 

Izturis/Blanco/Ward/Pagan would be pretty bad.

 

Extremely rare should be the day where ARam, Lee, Soriano, Barrett and Murton all don't start.

[BigbadB]

Forfiet lineups=a terrible joke of a lineup, usually thrown out there at the end of a series, or the day game after a night game on the road, featuring your entire bench starting, in a random mess of a lineup that couldn't possibly produce victory even if the starting pitcher throws a 2 hitter.

 

When they reduce the price of tickets for those games, that would be the day I would come to accept a forfeit game as acceptable.

 

For some fans, that is the only game they may have an opportunity to see the team play in person.

[USSoccer]

Forfiet lineups=a terrible joke of a lineup, usually thrown out there at the end of a series, or the day game after a night game on the road, featuring your entire bench starting, in a random mess of a lineup that couldn't possibly produce victory even if the starting pitcher throws a 2 hitter.

 

When they reduce the price of tickets for those games, that would be the day I would come to accept a forfeit game as acceptable.

 

For some fans, that is the only game they may have an opportunity to see the team play in person.

 

Another reason I'm glad Baker's gone.

[radarluv1]

i'm hoping our 25 man roster doesnt really allow a "forfeit" lineup. blanco days will give a weak 7/8/9 with itzuris in there. i guess if cedeno/itzuris/blano are around at once that would be prett brutal, but i cant think of a good reason to ever have cedeno play 2b.

 

Izturis/Blanco/Ward/Pagan would be pretty bad.

 

Extremely rare should be the day where ARam, Lee, Soriano, Barrett and Murton all don't start.

 

forgot about pagan. i'm optimistic about ward, though

[Amazing_Grace]

I like that article. I also agree with everything in it except that I don't think the season really depends upon the health of Wood and Prior. For the Cubs to be a 90+ win team, here's what I think has to happen.

 

1.) Someone has to be a legitimate #2 starter, whether that means Hill being Hill from the 2nd half of last year, or Prior being healthy, or someone else having a career year (I wouldn't be shocked if Lilly got his ERA down to around 3.75 or so, he's in his prime and moving to the NL).

 

2.) As many have stated, Piniella must make a lot of decisions a lot better than Baker. He needs to bench underperforming players contract-be-damned. He needs to keep pitchers at reasonable pitch counts and get them out of games where the outcome isn't in doubt. He needs to put higher OBP players at the top of the order (No Izturis in the 2 hole). Recognizing splits and getting in-depth into the stats would be nice, but really if he just gets a few basics like putting OBP guys at the top, power guys in the middle, and Izturis 8th, he'll be fine.

 

3.) DeRosa and Soriano must come closer to their 2006 numbers than their career numbers, especially in terms of OBP, as they likely will be hitting 1-2 in the order.

 

4.) Barrett, Lee, and especially Ramirez must stay healthy most of the year (at least 120 games). The backups at those positions are a significant step down from them. Really every team has some variation of this. For the Cards, it's probably Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen stay healthy most of the year. Pitching wise, the Cubs need Zambrano healthy, unless the unthinkable happens and we get 2003 Mark Prior.

 

I don't think all of these will happen. I think some will. I don't think we'll have a legit 2 starter. Hill will be inconsistent as most young players are with stretches where he's great and some where he struggles. I think Lilly will be average, Miller will be adequate for a 4 starter coming off serious injury, Marquis will suck, and Prior will get injured, if in fact he ever gets off the DL to begin with. Further, I think the Cubs management will lack the testicular fortitude to bench Marquis and his fat contract regardless of how bad he stinks and how many other players that are available that could be better. Piniella might be willing to do it. I doubt Hendry will let him.

 

I think Soriano will be very good, but his OPS will not match last year's. I'm looking for probably around a .330-.340 OBP with OPS around .850-.875, good but not as good as last year. I think DeRosa could very easily bomb completely. He's had just 1 out of his 6 big league seasons of 100 or more ABs with an OBP above .340. His .357 OBP last year was preceded by seasons of .316, .293, and .325. We may well be looking at 2B come July for an upgrade.

 

On the positive side, I think Lou will be a lot better than Baker. I think we'll see a lot fewer really completely stupid things like the inexplicable double switches. I think he'll be more apt to bench guys if the team is losing, as he seems to be all about winning at any cost, whereas Dusty was all about keeping his players happy at any cost. Hendry hired Lou, so I doubt he'll be much different than Baker with respect to team OBP. I think Lou will probably overwork the pitchers less, as he may be more apt to listen to Rothschild (I tend to believe Dusty was overruling him as has been reported since it fits with what we know about Dusty). I think Lou vs. Dusty is good for at least 5 wins over the course of the year.

 

Also, I think the Cubs should be healthier. Last year, to have so many injuries to key players was unlikely. To have it happen two straight years would be really unlikely, especially when you consider that Wood and Prior aren't being heavily counted upon. Also, we have more depth, especially in the outfield with 4 good players plus Pie as a possible callup midseason, so unlike last year, we're not stuck playing someone completely crappy if one guy goes down. If it's Lee, Barrett, or Ramirez, however, we could be in trouble because we don't have great depth there.

 

On the whole, I think I'd put the Cubs where most everyone else I've heard putting them, about 75-85 wins.

 

One final note, gooney is right about Hendry's philosophies being the real problem. Had he copied what Billy Beane did in Oakland or what Theo Epstein did in Boston, the Cubs would be winning the division every year by now and probably with a lower payroll.

[Guest]

so, would you all rather play murton than win?

[C.C.]

so, would you all rather play murton than win?

 

I'd rather win.

[RynoRules]

so, would you all rather play murton than win?

 

I'd rather win.

 

Me too. Just win bay-bay.