Baseball Prospectus on Derrek Lee

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This is a great article on Lee and what we can expect of him.

 

Given this information, what can we expect from Derrek Lee in 2007? As Will Carroll suggests, the injury that held Lee back in 2006 shouldn't be a problem in 2007, and he's still just 31 years old. PECOTA forecasts a .288/.369/.527 weighted mean line, but don't be surprised if a healthy Lee reaches his 75th percentile of .302/.385/.561. With the Cubs' rampant spending this offseason, they clearly expect to compete in 2007, and Lee's production is central to achieving that goal--especially with the question marks in the rotation. Considering his past history with the bat and the green light, it's safe to say Lee will be capable of doing his part for the Wrigley faithful.

[b_wiggy_66]

Great News :D

[MPrior]

Please let this be true.

[wade]

I think how he starts the year could set the tone. He used to be a slow starter, but '05 and even '06 before he got hurt he came out with a higher average to go with his always good discipline.

[rawaction]

I don't understand his OBP Pecota projection. Derrek was at .368 in 2006 in a lost year. Granted he was .358 in 2004, but in 02-03 he was pushing .380 and we all know about 2005. I think a .369 OBP for Derrek is a down season. I think there's a 5-10% chance he could actually repeat 2005, given his age. But worst case scenario is about .285/.380/.525.

[CubColtPacer]

I don't understand his OBP Pecota projection. Derrek was at .368 in 2006 in a lost year. Granted he was .358 in 2004, but in 02-03 he was pushing .380 and we all know about 2005. I think a .369 OBP for Derrek is a down season. I think there's a 5-10% chance he could actually repeat 2005, given his age. But worst case scenario is about .285/.380/.525.

 

I would agree with that. One thing to add to that is that he is still going to get a little more respect from pitchers because of 2005. He did at the beginning of last year, and I expect that to continue this year. With Lee's good eye, that should at least result in a high OBP, even if his SLG does not come all the way back (and at least at the start of the year last year before the injury, Lee was starting just as he left off with a 1.062 OPS in April). I see somewhere about halfway in between 2005 and his normal year overall.