Cubs Shopping Jones?

[questionmarkgrace]

Just a note: Range Factor is limited in value, and it has pretty much no value at all over ten games

 

Oh i know, but he keeps telling me how Jones has played 10 games as recently as 2005. So I just wanted to show him that during those 10 games he wasn't stellar. I wish I had the fielding bible becuase that would probably clear everything up.

[questionmarkgrace]

I found an excerpt from the fielding bible that has Jones among the bottom fielders at his current position.

 

http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com/images/Bible2006Sample.pdf

 

its a pdf. scroll down to right fielders rankings. Funny thing is if you continue to scroll down you'll see he's among the best arms in 2005, his biggest asset as an outfielder. I'd like to see his 2006 overall rankings.

[Vinestal]

I found an excerpt from the fielding bible that has Jones among the bottom fielders at his current position.

 

http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com/images/Bible2006Sample.pdf

 

its a pdf. scroll down to right fielders rankings. Funny thing is if you continue to scroll down you'll see he's among the best arms in 2005, his biggest asset as an outfielder. I'd like to see his 2006 overall rankings.

 

Thats why I dont understand why he didnt have surgery on his shoulder this offseason. Instead he went and played in Japan, meaning his throwing is not going to improve. What is the exact nature of his injury I haven't heard anything specific, I think I remember his shoulder being the problem.

[questionmarkgrace]

I'm pretty sure I heard it was bone chips in the elbow. Could be wrong though but it would basically be a clean up surgery unless they saw something else. I think he could have it done now and still be fine for the season.

[Vinestal]

I'm pretty sure I heard it was bone chips in the elbow. Could be wrong though but it would basically be a clean up surgery unless they saw something else. I think he could have it done now and still be fine for the season.

 

I thought I read they were just going to rest it though instead of having the surgery, which makes no sense if its chips they will just flare back up again.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm pretty sure I heard it was bone chips in the elbow. Could be wrong though but it would basically be a clean up surgery unless they saw something else. I think he could have it done now and still be fine for the season.

 

I thought I read they were just going to rest it though instead of having the surgery, which makes no sense if its chips they will just flare back up again.

 

Maybe he should use Elbow and Shoulders shampoo?

 

I've had chips in my elbow for years and rest did help it.

[Warpticon]

Just a note: Range Factor is limited in value, and it has pretty much no value at all over ten games

 

Oh i know, but he keeps telling me how Jones has played 10 games as recently as 2005. So I just wanted to show him that during those 10 games he wasn't stellar. I wish I had the fielding bible becuase that would probably clear everything up.

 

That's great, but he said that in response to you suggesting he hadn't played there in 8 years, which was false. That was the only point to be made. How well he did at the position wasn't relevant to that point.

[3Dog]

OT - what song are you listening to in your avatar, Warp?

[Warpticon]

OT - what song are you listening to in your avatar, Warp?

 

Wow, that's an unusual question. :lol: I was actually recording at the time. Here's the rest of the picture:

 

http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y192/warpticon/sirreal.jpg

[3Dog]

Thanks for humoring me! Been wanting to ask that question since I've discovered the board. :D

[questionmarkgrace]

That's great, but he said that in response to you suggesting he hadn't played there in 8 years, which was false. That was the only point to be made. How well he did at the position wasn't relevant to that point.

 

 

 

Actually eight seasons ago, 1999, is the last time he played center with any sort of regularity. So I wasn't wrong in the context of the coversation.

 

Quote:

Yep. And IIRC, Jacque was a CF until he got to the majors and moved to RF for Torii Hunter.

I'm not a big fan of Jones, but I argued last year that he'd be more of an asset in CF than RF.

 

 

 

Yeah but that was eight years ago

 

 

Anyways my original post was concerning Jacque's ability to play the position.

[questionmarkgrace]

Jones rates as one of the worst RF's. In 2005 his +/- was -4, and his 3 year +/- was -16. Here's what Dewan says:

 

"Jones has good speed and athleticism, but he doesn't always get good jumps on balls and ranks 24th in enhanced plays made. Ironically, his throwing has ranked in the top ten the past two years even though he doesn't have a typical right field arm."

 

courtesy of transmogrified tiger

 

viewtopic.php?t=36695&start=105

[cheapseats]

I'm aware of Dewan's rating of Jones in RF, but every other advanced metric rates him average or better than average. My bet is that Dewan's method doesn't calculate the park effect for RF at the Metrodome very well. Check out the dimensions of the Metrodome:

 

http://www.baseball-statistics.com/Ballparks/Minn/index.htm

 

There is very little area to cover in RF there because of the strange shape of the park. There is also very little foul territory. Dewan himself will tell you that he has more faith in his numbers for infielders (mainly due to varying ballpark dimensions) than he does for outfielders, and I figure that Dewan's method unfairly penalizes those who play RF in the Metrodome.

 

Jones has been ranked as an average to above average CF by Davenport fielding translations, UZR, PMR, and Chris Dial's metric:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/jonesja04.php

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_nl_aug_27/

http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html

http://www.baseballmusings.com/

 

As much as I like Dewan's book, when the other defensive metrics all disagree with his rating, I think his evaluation should be re-examined.

 

If you want to stick with Dewan's rating, that's fine, I guess, but if Jacque isn't going to play CF for the Cubs this year, then who is?

 

Soriano is apparently going to play RF.

Drew? Would have been a good choice, but Hendry's not interested.

Lugo? He's played one game in CF. I'd love him at SS, though.

Erstad? He's a below average hitter and would be injured after the first homestand.

Finley? No thanks.

Roberts? I'd be OK with a short-term contract.

Lofton? I'd be OK with a short-term contract.

Pie? Probably needs another year in the minors.

 

I don't think Jacque would be a great CF, but Wrigley isn't a particularly tough place to play CF. About 2.06 balls were hit to Jacque last year, and only 2.37 were hit to Pierre per game, so maybe once every three games would Jacque see more action in center than in left.

 

I'm not a big Jones fan, but outside of Lofton, I really don't see a better choice for CF. If I've missed an option, just let me know.

[jjgman21]

potentially Wilkerson as is being discussed in another thread (well actually I hijacked the thread. sorry about that mods)

 

also, Roberts is off the board.

[cheapseats]

potentially Wilkerson as is being discussed in another thread (well actually I hijacked the thread. sorry about that mods)

 

also, Roberts is off the board.

 

I figure Roberts is off the board, but I haven't seen an official announcement yet.

 

I'd be all for Wilkerson (assuming he passes a physical), but I doubt Hendry would sign him.

 

Maybe we could get Ryan Church. He was criminally underused by Washington last year, and we probably could have gotten him for a B-level prospect or two when they demoted him to the minors. We could probably still get him for less than he's worth in return.

[questionmarkgrace]

I'd be okay with lofton. For drew almost the same thing applies. Don't get me wrong he's a far superior hitter but it'd be hard for me to believe that drew wouldn't get injured playing center. Ironically hasn't been a full time centerfielder since 99 like jacque. the difference he does have more experience atthe position and that he is a far superior fielder. If we got him and stuck him in center I wouldn't complain. I'd also be cool with wells or baldelli in center if a trade could be made.

 

What I personally want to happen is probably unrealistic. I think we need an upgrade at short. Lugo, Tejada, ??? someone who can get on base. And not get injured. Izturis very well may bounce back but the little time he has spent here has been fruitless. I've read that the giants would trade Vizquel in the right deal. Even though he's old hes dependable and gets on base, etc.

 

And after we upgrade at short I want someone with a hose in center and a quick first step. Someone who will take controll in the outfield. Even though soriano improved in the outfield last year my guess is that he'll still have some adventures, and murton isn't exactly perfect. So yeah someone in center, short.

 

I think that jones still has pretty good value and combined with say sean marshall could get us something to fill one of our holes.

[questionmarkgrace]

Also if we get someone decent to put at short I wouldn't be opposed to pie in center. Wilkerson would be a nice if his shoulder was really the problem and is fixed. He might just be one of those 'genius' signings for a gambling gm.

[cheapseats]

Drew believes he'd be less likely to get injured in center because he won't have to worry about running into walls chasing foul balls. Take that for what it's worth.

 

I'd love to have Wells, but I shudder to think what it would take to get him, and I imagine that the Jays will decide to make a strong effort to resign him the way the market is moving.

 

I want no part of Baldelli. Some people here don't see the point of looking at BABIP, but Baldelli is the poster boy for the usefulness of that stat. When he made contact last year, he hit line drives only 15.6% of the time, but he had a .338 BABIP. The rule of thumb is that a player's BABIP should be line drive percentage plus .120. Without his unusually high BABIP, Baldelli easily could have had a sub .300 OBP last year. All three years he's played he's had very high BABIP, but I just don't see it as sustainable. He's my candidate for bust of the year in 2007.

 

I'd love to upgrade short as well. Izturis's best year wasn't very good, so if he's going to bounce back, I'd rather it be for some other team.

 

I think we as Cubs fans might overvalue Marshall but undervalue Jones. Teams make trades to fill needs, of course, but I'd think most teams would be looking at Jones and would only consider Marshall as a throw-in. Marshall is still young and could very well improve, but he pitched at replacement level last year.

 

I wouldn't bring up Pie yet. In fact, if Pie has more value than Jones, I'd trade him, preferably in a package for an impact player.

[questionmarkgrace]

yeah my guess is that wells will cost someone a lot to be a rent a player next year. The Jays will probably wait until the trade deadline unless they are blown away. Interesting thoughts on Baldelli, he still so young though and thats why hes tempting. But I'd take any outfielder off of tampa's hands. Crawford, Dukes (if he's healthy just had knee surgery), Young, Upton (assuming he is ends up in the outfield. I've got to believe they trade one of those guys this year.

 

But as for pie I wouldn't mind his defense in center but he'd probably hit .250 with 10 hr's and 150 k's. He is an exciting player though and if we get to upgrade at ss and some starting pitchers he would be a low cost move in center. I also wouldn't mind him studying under Kenny Lofton, but I'm not sure Kenny is the teaching type.

[Yeti]

I'm pretty sure I heard it was bone chips in the elbow. Could be wrong though but it would basically be a clean up surgery unless they saw something else. I think he could have it done now and still be fine for the season.

every report i heard, was not an elbow problem, was a shoulder problem, and IIRC i remember it being likened to K Woods shoulder trouble

[questionmarkgrace]

you're right as per rotoworld 10/18/06

 

Jacque Jones, who had a sore labrum in his throwing shoulder down the stretch, is working on strengthening his shoulder.

 

Jones is spending three to five days a week working on his shoulder, so he should be back at 100 percent for spring training.

[Jazz]

yeah my guess is that wells will cost someone a lot to be a rent a player next year. The Jays will probably wait until the trade deadline unless they are blown away. Interesting thoughts on Baldelli, he still so young though and thats why hes tempting. But I'd take any outfielder off of tampa's hands. Crawford, Dukes (if he's healthy just had knee surgery), Young, Upton (assuming he is ends up in the outfield. I've got to believe they trade one of those guys this year.

 

But as for pie I wouldn't mind his defense in center but he'd probably hit .250 with 10 hr's and 150 k's. He is an exciting player though and if we get to upgrade at ss and some starting pitchers he would be a low cost move in center. I also wouldn't mind him studying under Kenny Lofton, but I'm not sure Kenny is the teaching type.

 

 

I'd venture to guess that he's going to have a pretty great year this year, it being his contract year and all. I think he's as good as gone by the trading deadline. He's going to make a lot of money in the 2007 offseason.

[Deeg]

If Wells has an '07 like his '06, he might get more than Soriano as a FA. He'd be foolish to sign an extension now.

[Danny82]

If Wells has an '07 like his '06, he might get more than Soriano as a FA. He'd be foolish to sign an extension now.

 

That would only be a foolish move if he were guaranteed to have another year like last year. And he's not.

[cheapseats]

If Wells has an '07 like his '06, he might get more than Soriano as a FA. He'd be foolish to sign an extension now.

 

That would only be a foolish move if he were guaranteed to have another year like last year. And he's not.

 

I tend to agree. Sometimes I sense an assumption that contracts will continue to increase each offseason, but that hasn't been the case historically.

 

If I were V Wells, I'd at least negotiate.