wow - christina agrees with tim

[stitchface]

except more emphatically.

 

Signed 3B-R Aramis Ramirez to a five-year, $75 million contract; signed RHP Kerry Wood to a one-year, incentive-laden $1.75 million contract. [11/12]

 

The current mania is that everybody's going to have to spend more to compete, perhaps infused with a bit of new CBA-inspired euphoria. That helps explain Jim Hendry's comment that he has to "keep up with the Cardinals. At least as far as far as spending money." It's in anticipation of the cashbaths bleeding bottom lines to come that some have already rushed to congratulate the Cubs for signing Ramirez to this sort of money, but I guess I'm a little more reluctant to sign on with that brand of crowded wisdom. Ramirez isn't especially athletic or nimble, and his third-base play has already lost ground considerably from his more aggressive days with the Pirates—he's not good pouncing on bunts, ranging to his left, guarding the line, or starting double-plays. Instead, he's functional, and that's okay, but that's him at this best, and now that he's entering the tail end of his peak, it's unlikely to get better. Skip asking whether he'll be able to play third effectively in five years; he might not manage it in three.

 

So essentially, the Cubs are paying $15 million per year for his bat, from ages 29 through 33. To his credit, he has excellent plate coverage and top-shelf power. The question is whether or not that will persist as he moves out of the more-usual peak period of ages 25 through 29, into his early thirties. There, last season's PECOTA card comparables offer some clue, in that the most-similar players to him through 2005 were Tony Perez after 1970, Larry Parrish after 1981, and Tim Wallach after 1985. I don't take those as good signs. Parrish's career was scragged by injuries, and by that point, he couldn't handle third any more. Perez also couldn't really play third, but like Ramirez, he was pretty durable; the problem is that his power went from outstanding to adequate at the ages where the Cubs are hoping that Ramirez stays at the levels of the last couple of seasons. And Wallach? He was significantly less the hitter and by far the more brilliant defender than Ramirez is. The comparison to Perez, who was coming off of a monster 1970 season, seems particularly appropriate.

 

Looking at the money spent and the future I think we can reasonably expect from Ramirez, this really looks like a panic move, where the Cubs couldn't afford to lose face, and will instead be forced to deal with a question of whether or not they'll survive Ramirez's decline in the field. As is, I expect they'll regret his decline at the plate over the life of the contract, but that's in part because the hitter Ramirez really reminds me of is George Bell, and like Perez, Bell never again reached the heights he scaled in a normal peak period. As much as I like watching Ramirez hit, and as much as he's been an essential cog in their lineup, barring a major overhaul of the roster to field a genuine, less-fragile contender, this was a major financial mistake. If Hendry achieves that overhaul or not, either way, the contract's a major millstone, untradeably huge from a player who might have to go to first or DH before it's done.

 

The contrast is Wood's deal, which after initially paying him the $3 million to buy out his 2007 option, seems like a reasonably minor financial risk. If Wood fulfills all of the playing time and active days on the roster incentives, he stands to make more like $6 million, and if he does that, chances are the Cubs will be happy about it. There's some question about what role he'll be employed in, but a resurrection as a relief ace seems to be within the realm of possibility. As much as Wood has been called upon to do so much for this team, and as much as he seemed to be ill-served by it at times, I'm glad to see him stick around.

[Guest]

is it possible jim is thinking EP sends DeRosa to the bench next year?

 

 

Eric Patterson, 2B, Mesa Solar Sox (Arizona Fall League, Cubs)

 

After leading the Midwest League in batting last year, Patterson's Double-A showing was a significant dropoff to .263/.330/.438, but a late-season surge at Triple-A brought some of the buzz back. That buzz is only growing in Arizona, as Patterson has smacked 12 hits in his last six games to raise his AFL average to .358 to go with 25 runs scored in 24 games, thanks in part to a .425 on-base percentage and a league-leading 12 stolen bases. Scouts have been impressed with Patterson's speed, approach, and gap power, leaving many to wonder if he's got a shot at the big league second base job in early 2007, if not Opening Day.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Christina Kahrl has never liked any transaction that has ever been made.

[Guest]

Christina Kahrl has never liked any transaction that has ever been made.

 

like goony? I think she is missing the perspective of the other writers who have realized where salaries are likely going. OCF may be right on that topic. the DeRosa money bothers me a lot less than the idea that he will be starting.