We Should Worry about Zambrano

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Z is our best pitcher by far right now, but that does not mean he is flawless.

 

He is charismatic, he is a friggin bull, he's young, he's got great stuff...but he has alot of flaws.

 

One thing we worry about is his pitch counts. He's shown he can handle them and will be 26 next year and finally (still I worry) out of the typical injury nexus for a young pitcher. He averaged 110 pitches per start, and alot of the time was out there in the 8th/9th unnecessarily.

 

One thing that is both a result and a cause of that, he walks a TON of guys. He has worse control than Wood did when he was healthy, and he puts ALOT of guys on base for free because of that. He walked 115 guys in 215, thats almost 5 guys per 9. Thats disturbingly high for a future ace, and like we saw in Wood it jumped his pitch counts, put strain on his arm, and only because of his raw stuff did he remain a very good starting pitcher.

 

Z's control has gone down the drain, and his fly ball rate is heading up. His HR rate is staying decent, but this is not the improvements I like to see in my young pitcher.

 

I'm hoping Z stays healthy and pitches like this his whole career, but I have never considered myself the fan who sees Z as an automatic win. After a starter I'll check his line and this year there was a whole lot of 8 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 8 K's, 4-6 BBs. A guy who consistently gets himself into and out of trouble is good, but eventually those guys see their luck run out.

[Lefty]

I think Z's high walk totals are partly a function of nasty, and uncontrollable, movement. It's part of a very good package.

[Cubzfan64]

Personally I would chalk alot of that up to a young pitcher still "throwing" rather than pitching. Without talking about your points one at a time, I'll just make the comment that popped into my head right after reading your notes...

 

I only have a limited amount of worry to go around, and there's a WHOLE LOT OF OTHER PLACES for me to focus that worry on than Zambrano.

 

Not to say he doesn't need to improve, but I see that more as worrying about fine tuning the fan speed on an engine that needs a complete overhaul.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Yep, exactly why he is thought of so highly here and anywhere Cubs fans live.

 

He is young, nasty, and produces, unlike the rest of the franchise.

 

For that he gets a free pass when it comes to his flaws, but we have to start taking note of them because he's in for a monster pay day soon.

 

I think Z's high walk totals are partly a function of nasty, and uncontrollable, movement. It's part of a very good package.

 

While thats true, its not an excuse.

 

Maddux had nasty, sick movement in his prime. He controlled it. He didn't throw as hard, but I've heard stories of Maddux dialing it up to 93 and even 95 a few times in his prime. His velocity in his youth is very underrated.

Edited October 19, 2006 by KingKongvs.Godzilla

[Soriano12]

Until Zambrano gives me a reason to worry about him...I am not going to.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Until Zambrano gives me a reason to worry about him...I am not going to.

 

So walks, elbow pain, back pain, and so on are not reasons to worry?

 

What does he have to do to worry people?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think we should be more worried that Zambrano can leave as a FA following the 2007 season.

[inari]

 

While thats true, its not an excuse.

 

Maddux had nasty, sick movement in his prime. He controlled it. He didn't throw as hard, but I've heard stories of Maddux dialing it up to 93 and even 95 a few times in his prime. His velocity in his youth is very underrated.

 

You heard your stories wrong. Maddux never threw that hard and he's never had the movement that Z has.

[rynefan]

I've run out of worry where the Cubs are concerned. BUT, if he can get that many wins with that horrible fiasco we call the 2006 season, he's pretty much performed a miracle.

[Mizzou]

I think we should be more worried that Zambrano can leave as a FA following the 2007 season.

Definitely. Has Hendry said anything about trying to lock him up this offseason? If so, I must've missed it.

[TheDude]

Why would Zambrano very suddenly be affected by pitch counts? He threw 60 more pitches total in 2006, than 2005, and has pretty much averaged the same number of pitches per year for 4 straight years.

 

Pitch count micro-management has validity for a kid in his first or second year, if coming from an environment of short seasons and fewer games.

 

I'm not sure how it enters the conversation for a guy who will be in his 6th year as a regular.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why would Zambrano very suddenly be affected by pitch counts? He threw 60 more pitches total in 2006, than 2005, and has pretty much averaged the same number of pitches per year for 4 straight years.

 

Pitch count micro-management has validity for a kid in his first or second year, if coming from an environment of short seasons and fewer games.

 

I'm not sure how it enters the conversation for a guy who will be in his 6th year as a regular.

 

The threat of injury doesn't disappear after you've pitched for a couple seasons.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

 

While thats true, its not an excuse.

 

Maddux had nasty, sick movement in his prime. He controlled it. He didn't throw as hard, but I've heard stories of Maddux dialing it up to 93 and even 95 a few times in his prime. His velocity in his youth is very underrated.

 

You heard your stories wrong. Maddux never threw that hard and he's never had the movement that Z has.

 

Oh, thanks for that scientific facts.

 

BTW, these aren't just stories. Maddux was in his prime as late as 2000 and I'm sure everyone saw him. Those stories are not false, if anything Maddux had even more disgusting movement on his fastball than Z (that 2 seamer that locked up lefties, the changeup...), he just controlled it more. And its talked about more than ever about how Maddux would reach back once in a while and hit 95. He probably could have thrown much harder consistently if the movement and control weren't optimal at 89-93.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Until Zambrano gives me a reason to worry about him...I am not going to.

 

So walks, elbow pain, back pain, and so on are not reasons to worry?

 

What does he have to do to worry people?

 

I'm very concerned the pitch counts and poor mechanics when his pitch count gets high will catch up to him sooner or later.

 

The back pain is also very concerning, back pain often is chronic.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Exacty.

 

There is a ton to like about Z, I listed those above.

 

But his flaws are great and can lead to very bad things in the future.

 

Poor control is a problem for now AND the future. Back problems are a problem for now AND the future. Random elbow pain is problematic for now AND the future.

 

And he's going to get paid ALOT next year. He is nowhere near perfect, he is young, fiery, tough, and any all ballsy adjective we can think of. Still he's going to get paid like an ace but how long can he keep looking like one?

[Soriano12]

Until Zambrano gives me a reason to worry about him...I am not going to.

 

elbow pain, back pain, and so on are not reasons to worry?

 

No. Unlike some other Cubs pitchers...cough, cough,...Z knows how to pitch through this pain and be effective.

[Guest]

Until Zambrano gives me a reason to worry about him...I am not going to.

 

So walks, elbow pain, back pain, and so on are not reasons to worry?

 

What does he have to do to worry people?

 

get seriously hurt. then some people will call him a wuss for not pitching in pain. you have very good points and there are a lot of warning signs out there.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Until Zambrano gives me a reason to worry about him...I am not going to.

 

elbow pain, back pain, and so on are not reasons to worry?

 

No. Unlike some other Cubs pitchers...cough, cough,...Z knows how to pitch through this pain and be effective.

 

Yes, and you expect that to last a lifetime?

 

Even if you trust that that will happen, don't you think injuries will effect his stuff therefore his effectiveness?

 

This is a step by step logical process, examine it and you'll see alot more than "if it hasn't happened yet then it won't/can't happen."

 

Walks >> High pitch counts >> Risk for injury rises >>> Injury occurs (whether its next year, the year after, or five years later) >>> Injury affects performance

 

We wanna pay him big money we better stop being [expletive] with him. And he better learn to control himself and his stuff.

[goonys evil twin]

I choose to ignore this issue.

 

Need something to remain positive about.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I choose to ignore this issue.

 

Need something to remain positive about.

 

Get 2 more and Pinktermite will be happy.

[Drew Doughty]

i had a pretty crazy dream about Z! last night

 

Marlins and Cubs in the playoffs, I assume next year.

 

Z in the batters box with Willis pitching. Z squares up to bunt and Willis misses up and in. Z puts the bat over his head while he ducks out of the way and the ball hits his bat. Z was angry, charged the mound for a second, but backed off. Down to his final strike, Willis paints the corner. Z doesn't like the call, so he pretends it's a walk, takes his bat with him up the first base line, and spikes it in the outfield. He was about to go after the 1st base ump for no reason but Blanco & someone else tackled him and held him back.

 

Good stuff.

 

Not really any application to the topic.

 

The back pain bothers me, but I think he'll be able to pitch through it alright until his later years.

[MPrior]

While I admit that there are reasons for concern with Zambrano, they're pretty far down the list of things to worry about. Secondly, Zambrano's high walk totals this year were uncharacteristic, even for him - so I don't necessarily expect him to be that bad in the future. And lastly, Piniella, as much as I'm not crazy about him, has historically been much less abusive of his starting pitchers - so we probably won't see regular 120+ pitch outings all the time.

[TheDude]

Why would Zambrano very suddenly be affected by pitch counts? He threw 60 more pitches total in 2006, than 2005, and has pretty much averaged the same number of pitches per year for 4 straight years.

 

Pitch count micro-management has validity for a kid in his first or second year, if coming from an environment of short seasons and fewer games.

 

I'm not sure how it enters the conversation for a guy who will be in his 6th year as a regular.

 

The threat of injury doesn't disappear after you've pitched for a couple seasons.

 

Nor does it magically appear due to pitch counts that have been consistant across numerous years.

[CubinNY]

Why would Zambrano very suddenly be affected by pitch counts? He threw 60 more pitches total in 2006, than 2005, and has pretty much averaged the same number of pitches per year for 4 straight years.

 

Pitch count micro-management has validity for a kid in his first or second year, if coming from an environment of short seasons and fewer games.

 

I'm not sure how it enters the conversation for a guy who will be in his 6th year as a regular.

 

The threat of injury doesn't disappear after you've pitched for a couple seasons.

 

Nor does it magically appear due to pitch counts that have been consistant across numerous years.

 

Exceot if your Jason Shmidt, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Ernie Briollio, and pretty much any pitcher.

[Yeti]

I choose to ignore this issue.

 

Need something to remain positive about.

 

Get 2 more and Pinktermite will be happy.

:lmao: i litterally spit my vodka tonic at my monitor