No more talk about Ryan Theriot

[cubweiser03]

Bo Hart? Cmon guys...thats not fair...

 

Minors (Career)

.....Ave.....OBP.....BB/K

Bo.270....339......189/444

RT.271....355......260/264

 

Bo Hart was a weak hitting 2b 'with' a TERRIBLE BB/K ratio, not a good combination. Year of callup bb/k: 15/55, year before 43/82. Bo goes to bigs and hits .277 in roughly 300 bats and gets blow away even further with a 12/64 BB/K ratio and his OBP *shockingly* drops to .317. No one is surprised Bo got his ass handed to him because he couldnt cover the plate all that well to begin with in the minors.

 

Ryan's AA and AAA are were way better than Bo's before they each went into the majors.

 

Ryan as SS would be pretty awesome for this team. If the Cubs didnt land Soriano to play 2b i wouldnt feel so bad about Theriot playing second next year. I know this, i feel 10X better with The Riot at 2b next year than i did about Ronny as SS this year.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Theriot was no pud in college, either. He's produced at every level. I'm beginning to think of him as our own version of David Eckstein, and that's not bad at all. We can certainly use a guy like that.

[Backtobanks]

As many of you have stated, Theriot deserves a chance to compete for a starting job (2B or SS) during spring training. I'm a big fan of Cedeno, but package him with some of our young pitching and you might be able to get an impact bat. Better yet, package Izturis with the young pitching and keep Cedeno.

[muntjack]

As many of you have stated, Theriot deserves a chance to compete for a starting job (2B or SS) during spring training. I'm a big fan of Cedeno, but package him with some of our young pitching and you might be able to get an impact bat. Better yet, package Izturis with the young pitching and keep Cedeno.

 

I've always been confused how a guy can't be judged for a job based on 100+ AB's during the regular season, but he can be judged for a job based on fewer ABs during the spring.

 

Why is regular season performance less valuable than spring training performance when judging a young player's ability?

[Sammy Sofa]

As many of you have stated, Theriot deserves a chance to compete for a starting job (2B or SS) during spring training. I'm a big fan of Cedeno, but package him with some of our young pitching and you might be able to get an impact bat. Better yet, package Izturis with the young pitching and keep Cedeno.

 

I've always been confused how a guy can't be judged for a job based on 100+ AB's during the regular season, but he can be judged for a job based on fewer ABs during the spring.

 

Why is regular season performance less valuable than spring training performance when judging a young player's ability?

 

Exactly.

 

Otherwise Angel Pagan might be the best player the Cubs have right now.

 

Oh, wait.

[CubsWin]

Expecting Theriot to hit .300/.350 is extremely risky. Theriot was several years older than the levels he was at, the Bo Hart comparison is very, very apt.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Expecting Theriot to hit .300/.350 is extremely risky. Theriot was several years older than the levels he was at, the Bo Hart comparison is very, very apt.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison?

 

Guys who were two years old for their league that came up and hit out of their minds in their initial Major League time. Hart's minor league numbers were even worse than Theriot's, so when he regressed he couldn't make a Major League roster. Similarly, when Theriot regresses he in all likelihood will find himself in a bench role.

[CubsWin]

Expecting Theriot to hit .300/.350 is extremely risky. Theriot was several years older than the levels he was at, the Bo Hart comparison is very, very apt.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison?

 

Guys who were two years old for their league that came up and hit out of their minds in their initial Major League time. Hart's minor league numbers were even worse than Theriot's, so when he regressed he couldn't make a Major League roster. Similarly, when Theriot regresses he in all likelihood will find himself in a bench role.

I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm actually asking, but how does being a year or two old for your league mean that you are going to regress? I can understand how if you are old for your league it means that you aren't likely to get demonstrably better than your current level of production because you have potentially maxed yourself out, but how does it mean that you are doomed to regress?

 

You have either figured out AA pitching or you haven't. You have either figured AAA pitching out or you haven't.

 

And he has done so with great consistency over the last couple of seasons. Will Theriot have some adjustments to make next season? Very likely. But I have built in some regression into my prediction. The last two seasons he has hit .304 in the minors. So my prediction is that he can hit around .300, meaning that he can regress as low as the .280s. The last three seasons, he has produced an OBP in the mid-.360s, so I regressed him to .350 with the possibility of maintaining what he did at the lower levels. He draws a walk well. He hits for contact well. Do you lose those abilities entirely when you reach the majors?

 

I could be dead wrong. I'm no expert in projecting major league stats based off of minor league numbers. But he's been getting the job done fairly consistently for three years running now. That's quite different than what Bo Hart did leading up to his time in the show.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm actually asking, but how does being a year or two old for your league mean that you are going to regress? I can understand how if you are old for your league it means that you aren't likely to get demonstrably better than your current level of production because you have potentially maxed yourself out, but how does it mean that you are doomed to regress?

 

It's not his age at the level that determines if you will regress, it sets a level of where he will likely perform. It's obvious Theriot isn't going to put up a .900 OPS forever, so how far will he fall? Using his career numbers when he's several years old for his level as a baseline is deceiving and inaccurate(think of the numbers of Calvin Murray and other AAA retreads for an extreme example). Expecting Theriot to reproduce his minor league career is unlikely because he's been old for his level, especially in his first full season.

Edited October 1, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Expecting Theriot to hit .300/.350 is extremely risky. Theriot was several years older than the levels he was at, the Bo Hart comparison is very, very apt.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison?

 

Guys who were two years old for their league that came up and hit out of their minds in their initial Major League time. Hart's minor league numbers were even worse than Theriot's, so when he regressed he couldn't make a Major League roster. Similarly, when Theriot regresses he in all likelihood will find himself in a bench role.

 

I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm actually asking, but how does being a year or two old for your league mean that you are going to regress? I can understand how if you are old for your league it means that you aren't likely to get demonstrably better than your current level of production because you have potentially maxed yourself out, but how does it mean that you are doomed to regress?

 

I think he means regressing from the 336/416/534 line that he has right now.

[CuseCubFan69]

Don't let Dusty Baker fog your minds one last time. Despite where he has played, many are forgetting that Theriot is an excellent SHORTSTOP, it's a testament to his flexibility that he's been equally as effective at 2B, where Baker has almost exclusively used him.

 

Getting Soriano and using Theriot are thus not mutually exclusive, not by a long shot. My ideal scenario would be to acquire either Soriano as a FA or Tejada via trade, and use Theriot (with Izturis as his backup if anything goes wrong) at 2B or SS, depending on which star we bring in.

Theriot mostly played SS this season at Iowa. About 25% of the time he played 2B, while also playing a little LF.

 

I guess including SS as a possible position for him would be wise.

 

This is why I do not understand why he didn't play SS for the Cubs. See if he can handle it at the MLB level, at least get a read on it.

[CuseCubFan69]

Urgh...it seems like the Cubs are victims of Theriot's success.

How so?

 

Cause now the Cubs might consider Theriot as the starting 2B. That's risky, since Theriot doesn't even have one major league season under his belt and he's putting up numbers in the majors that he's never put up int he minors.

 

But if Theriot sucked, the Cubs might go out and spend for a major FA like Soriano. There are no question marks with Soriano.

 

I'm not saying that Theriot won't be a good 2B next season, I'm just saying it's risky.

Actually its not as risky as you might think. For three years running, Theriot has put up an OBP in the mid-.360s in the minors. He hit .273 in '04, and .304 in each of the last two seasons. No one here or in the Cubs front office is expecting him to reproduce his numbers since joining the Cubs. You don't have to worry about that. But expecting him to have an OBP above .350, to hit around .300 and to steal about 40 bases in a full season is a fairly safe bet, not a risky one.

 

Expecting Theriot to hit .300/.350 is extremely risky. Theriot was several years older than the levels he was at, the Bo Hart comparison is very, very apt.

 

I like to see a 270/340 type of hitting and him playing the SS postion. He knows the game better Cedeno and runs the bases way better. Of course it depends on who the Cubs sign over the off season to play the middle.

Edited October 1, 2006 by CuseCubFan69

[CubsWin]

Expecting Theriot to hit .300/.350 is extremely risky. Theriot was several years older than the levels he was at, the Bo Hart comparison is very, very apt.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison?

 

Guys who were two years old for their league that came up and hit out of their minds in their initial Major League time. Hart's minor league numbers were even worse than Theriot's, so when he regressed he couldn't make a Major League roster. Similarly, when Theriot regresses he in all likelihood will find himself in a bench role.

 

I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm actually asking, but how does being a year or two old for your league mean that you are going to regress? I can understand how if you are old for your league it means that you aren't likely to get demonstrably better than your current level of production because you have potentially maxed yourself out, but how does it mean that you are doomed to regress?

 

I think he means regressing from the 336/416/534 line that he has right now.

No, he doesn't. He doesn't think that Theriot is a safe bet to hit around .300 or have an OBP of .350. He might be right.

 

Then again, hitting in the .280s or higher and getting on base 35% of the time for a guy who has consistently done .304/.366 in AA and AAA the last two seasons doesn't seem like a big stretch to me. With his walk rate and contact rate, he seems a lot more like David Eckstein to me than Bo Hart.

[Guest]

Bo Hart? Cmon guys...thats not fair...

 

Minors (Career)

.....Ave.....OBP.....BB/K

Bo.270....339......189/444

RT.271....355......260/264

That's a very good point; K/BB ratios are pretty good indicators of future performance, and a 1:1 ratio like Theriot's is definitely a strong mark in his favor.

 

That being said, I wouldn't let Ryan's presence keep me from making a big improvement to the middle infield. (Whether it's trading for Tejada, signing Soriano, or something else.) The Cub's offense is currently very bad at both getting on base and hitting for power, and Theriot only really addresses one of those holes. (And while his OBP will likely be decent by Cubs standards, it probably won't be that special when compared to the rest of the league.)

 

I will say this, though; I think I like Theriot more right now than any other MIF currently on the roster. That's not really saying much, however, when the competition is Izturis, Cedeno, and Bynum. Those are such big holes that it's almost a necessity that Hendry goes out and fills at least one of them from outside the system. I think I could live with Theriot filling the other spot, depending on how the outfield situation pans out.

[nilodnayr]

Most guys don't all of a sudden put up numbers in the major leagues that they never even approached in the minors.

I don't think anyone is saying that Theriot is going to be able to do next year over a full season what he has done so far this season, which is hit .336/.415/.536 in 125 ABs. So this argument against Theriot starting at 2B next season doesn't hold water.

 

Let's look at Theriot's minor league numbers...

OBP- 2004: .367, 2005: .365, 2006: .367

AVG- 2004: .273, 2005: .304, 2006: .304

SB/CS- 2002: 32/8 in 489 ABs, 2003: 30/13 in 398 ABs, 13/11 in 330 ABs, 2005: 24/10 in 448 ABs, 2006: 14/3 in 280 ABs (25/5 in 405 ABs including the majors)

 

What dkwg did say, is that everything we have seen thus far from Theriot shows us that he is ready to play in the bigs and succeed. I don't think he is in the class of players that can be "penciled in". I reserve that for guys like Lee, Barrett, Ramirez (if he stays) and Murton (if he isn't traded away).

 

But I do think that Theriot's minor league numbers plus the 125 ABs in the bigs this year show us a batter who can be counted on to get on base about 35-37% of the time while hitting around .300, stealing 30-40 bases and playing a good defensive 2B. By that description, he is currently the best 2B on the team and better than a lot of starting 2B out there.

 

I have no quarrel with the idea of aquiring a better 2B than Theriot, but the evidence supports that Ryan Theriot is ready to be a solid lead-off hitter/secondbaseman in the major leagues.

 

CW, if you expect a 1:1 minor league to major league translation, then can I expect you to fully endorse Michael Restovich to start in RF in 2007?

[Sammy Sofa]

I will say this, though; I think I like Theriot more right now than any other MIF currently on the roster. That's not really saying much, however, when the competition is Izturis, Cedeno, and Bynum.

 

If he somehow ends up being a starter, I want this etched on a bronze plate and hung above his locker.

[CubsWin]

Most guys don't all of a sudden put up numbers in the major leagues that they never even approached in the minors.

I don't think anyone is saying that Theriot is going to be able to do next year over a full season what he has done so far this season, which is hit .336/.415/.536 in 125 ABs. So this argument against Theriot starting at 2B next season doesn't hold water.

 

Let's look at Theriot's minor league numbers...

OBP- 2004: .367, 2005: .365, 2006: .367

AVG- 2004: .273, 2005: .304, 2006: .304

SB/CS- 2002: 32/8 in 489 ABs, 2003: 30/13 in 398 ABs, 13/11 in 330 ABs, 2005: 24/10 in 448 ABs, 2006: 14/3 in 280 ABs (25/5 in 405 ABs including the majors)

 

What dkwg did say, is that everything we have seen thus far from Theriot shows us that he is ready to play in the bigs and succeed. I don't think he is in the class of players that can be "penciled in". I reserve that for guys like Lee, Barrett, Ramirez (if he stays) and Murton (if he isn't traded away).

 

But I do think that Theriot's minor league numbers plus the 125 ABs in the bigs this year show us a batter who can be counted on to get on base about 35-37% of the time while hitting around .300, stealing 30-40 bases and playing a good defensive 2B. By that description, he is currently the best 2B on the team and better than a lot of starting 2B out there.

 

I have no quarrel with the idea of aquiring a better 2B than Theriot, but the evidence supports that Ryan Theriot is ready to be a solid lead-off hitter/secondbaseman in the major leagues.

 

CW, if you expect a 1:1 minor league to major league translation, then can I expect you to fully endorse Michael Restovich to start in RF in 2007?

Its not 1:1. I'm accounting for a 15-20 point drop in both his AVG and OBP. The reason why it isn't more than that is because of his walk rate and his contact rate and how consistent they have been over the last three seasons.

 

I haven't seen Restovich's numbers from '05 and '04. If someone can provide them for me or tell me where I can find them, I'll be happy to speak to that. I doubt he has the same level of consistency over the past three seasons. I also doubt he has the same contact rate. So Restovich is likely a pretty poor choice for comparison. Though I presume you were just being sarcastic.

 

I'm not saying that Theriot should be counted on to be the starting 2B/SS. I'm saying I think he is capable of it and is a pretty safe bet to provide a better than Pierre (.330) OBP with a average close to .300 and 30-40 SB given 600 ABs. I also only think that he should be a starter if certain positions around him are improved offensively. If, god forbid, Pierre is resigned, and they don't get a power hitting corner OFer, then I would hope that they would sign someone better than Theriot to man 2B next season.

[Laura]

Theriot gets a mention in Sullivan's off-season priorities article.

 

Paul Sullivan / The Trib[/url]"] Ryan Theriot's late emergence at second base makes him a candidate for the leadoff spot if Pierre goes, though Hendry would only say Theriot has "an outstanding chance to make the ballclub."

[hardcorecubfan]

theriot deserve a chance to fail like anyone else playing for the Cubs

[RichHillIsABeast]

Scouts project Theriot as a backup utility type. Stats gurus think pretty much the same based on his minor league numbers.

 

It's pretty optimistic to think Theriot can be a viable starter at 2B.

 

I like Theriot a lot and he definitely deserves a spot on the '07 roster - as a bench player. He'll see lots of time with Izturis as the starting SS. :wink:

[YearofDaCubs]

Scouts project Theriot as a backup utility type. Stats gurus think pretty much the same based on his minor league numbers.

 

It's pretty optimistic to think Theriot can be a viable starter at 2B.

 

I like Theriot a lot and he definitely deserves a spot on the '07 roster - as a bench player. He'll see lots of time with Izturis as the starting SS. :wink:

I'll take Theriot over Izturis any day of the week.

[Soriano12]

Scouts project Theriot as a backup utility type. Stats gurus think pretty much the same based on his minor league numbers.

 

It's pretty optimistic to think Theriot can be a viable starter at 2B.

 

I like Theriot a lot and he definitely deserves a spot on the '07 roster - as a bench player. He'll see lots of time with Izturis as the starting SS. :wink:

I'll take Theriot over Izturis any day of the week.

 

I'll take the Angel's Izturis over our Izturis, any day of the week.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Scouts project Theriot as a backup utility type. Stats gurus think pretty much the same based on his minor league numbers.

 

It's pretty optimistic to think Theriot can be a viable starter at 2B.

 

I like Theriot a lot and he definitely deserves a spot on the '07 roster - as a bench player. He'll see lots of time with Izturis as the starting SS. :wink:

I'll take Theriot over Izturis any day of the week.

 

Izturis is a wizard with the glove. He can't hit a lick though.

 

Theriot is average defensively at 2B. I haven't seen him at SS, but I doubt he has the range to be ML average at that position.

 

I love that he can take a walk, but if he starts struggling at the plate, which is very likely IMO...Izturis is the better option.

 

Izturis hits like Neifi and fields like a god. Personally, I like watching him and pitchers love him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Scouts project Theriot as a backup utility type. Stats gurus think pretty much the same based on his minor league numbers.

 

It's pretty optimistic to think Theriot can be a viable starter at 2B.

 

I like Theriot a lot and he definitely deserves a spot on the '07 roster - as a bench player. He'll see lots of time with Izturis as the starting SS. :wink:

I'll take Theriot over Izturis any day of the week.

 

Izturis is a wizard with the glove. He can't hit a lick though.

 

Theriot is average defensively at 2B. I haven't seen him at SS, but I doubt he has the range to be ML average at that position.

 

I love that he can take a walk, but if he starts struggling at the plate, which is very likely IMO...Izturis is the better option.

 

Izturis hits like Neifi and fields like a god. Personally, I like watching him and pitchers love him.

 

Actually, Theriot is a plus defender at 2B, and came up as a SS, where he would still be at least adequate.

[A New Era]

Scouts project Theriot as a backup utility type. Stats gurus think pretty much the same based on his minor league numbers.

 

It's pretty optimistic to think Theriot can be a viable starter at 2B.

 

I like Theriot a lot and he definitely deserves a spot on the '07 roster - as a bench player. He'll see lots of time with Izturis as the starting SS. :wink:

I'll take Theriot over Izturis any day of the week.

 

Izturis is a wizard with the glove. He can't hit a lick though.

 

Theriot is average defensively at 2B. I haven't seen him at SS, but I doubt he has the range to be ML average at that position.

 

I love that he can take a walk, but if he starts struggling at the plate, which is very likely IMO...Izturis is the better option.

 

Izturis hits like Neifi and fields like a god. Personally, I like watching him and pitchers love him.

 

Actually, Theriot is a plus defender at 2B, and came up as a SS, where he would still be at least adequate.

 

And it makes the izturis trade look worse and worse. Because here we have a guy, who could be an adequate SS in Theroit. Yet we are paying Izturis around $4-$5 m.