Buy low on Adam Dunn?

[Mephistopheles]

We don't exactly have a place for him, but if there ever was a time we could get him relatively cheaply it'd be now. I'd imagine we could swindle Krivsky into liking a combination of Jacque Jones and prospects for Adam Dunn.

 

They're also in the market for starting pitching so one of our thousands of failed prospects this season in that deal might be enticing. The Reds don't have much in their system outside of Votto and Bailey so there's room to work.

 

I am thinking trading for Dunn would be easier than trading for Vernon Wells. Mainly because Krivsky and the Cubs system are better matches. Krivsky came up learning about tools so he's probably on that side of the spectrum more (see Kearns). The Jays love sabersavvy prospects and our best one who fits that description might be Sean Gallagher or Jake Fox - two guys that would be trumped by pretty much every team. They wouldn't be too interested in the Felix Pie's or Donald Veal's of the world, I think.

 

Anyways Dunn's contract situation is 10.5M next season and a 13M club option in 2008. He's coming off his second-worst offensive season (which is a .290 EqA!) and is hitting .188 and .153 the last two months.

[A New Era]

I'd be all for it. Too bad position wise we couldn't easily replace Jones with Dunn and not Murton. But oh well. It'd be an upgrade either way. But I'd keep Murton as the 4th OF for sure.

[Balsa]

I know it's buying low, but man, that's kinda low.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I am nowhere near the Dunn fan many on the board are, but if you could acquire him at roughly a $5MM to $6MM marginal payroll increment, I'd certainly do that. In other words, if you could swap out Jones or Dempster say, plus a couple of prospects, it would be a fine acquisition. Dunn is the power bat needed for the 5 spot in the order to protect Aramis. I don't like the low average and the many K's, but the OBP and SLG are there.

 

Jones, Marmol or Marshall, and Brian Dopirak for Dunn? I'm in. Give me Soriano at 2B and now we're talking.

[rocket]

he's had an awful last 2 months, but his babip is low considering his line drive percentage, so that suggests it could all be bad luck. with his salary steadily increasing while having 2 awful months, now would probably be the time to get dunn if he ever was available, which he probably isn't.

[Outshined_One]

I love the guy, but I don't see Hendry going after him.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Dunn isn't a Hendry guy. He can't play defense worth a crap. He strikes out so freaking much it's ridiculous (Hendry likes guys who move runners along and hit sac flies). I don't think Hendry minds the walks contrary to public opinion, but he's far more interested in BA w/ RISP and X outs.

 

Dunn's also approaching FA. I'd think Hendry would take Murton over Dunn, and I'm not so sure he'd be wrong.

 

Given Dunn's salary, impending free agency, lack of defensive skills, and just flat out lack of tools (besides power), there's no way we value him enough to overbid other suitors who would be after his services should he come available. Not to mention it is an intra-division trade and the price would likely be higher for us than others.

 

I like Dunn, but he's not a good fit for this ballclub. I can just see Z and the donkey going at it b/c he butchered yet another routine line drive.

[Balsa]

I think I'd rather have Murton than Dunn, especially given the price...but then again Dunn is pretty young too...

[NorthsideAvenger]

I think I'd rather have Murton than Dunn, especially given the price...but then again Dunn is pretty young too...

 

Yeah, but Murton a better all-around hitter then Dunn. Eveyrbody loves the fact that he can nearly hit the moon with his power, and like his ability to take a pitch, but that's ALL he can do. Whereas Murton can produce a SIMILAR---and maybe in time---a BETTER OBP and is a better defender in LF then Dunn (Murton's average, but Dunn flat out makes him look like a GGer). The only thing Murton won't ever do .v. Dunn is outslug him. That doesn't break my heart.

 

I don't think trading more young valuable pitching to get Dunn (and his soon to be VERY EXPENSIVE contract) is fisible plan, considering the Cubs already have Murton and have him CHEAP for next couple of yrs.

 

So, IN MY OPINION, talking about Dunn is like beating a horse a to death, and it is highly unlikely to end up in Chicago. Now, I COULD see Dunn going to Detroit or Anaheim.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Dunn has great walk totals and power. His inability to hit for average will always keep him from becoming an elite offensive outfielder. His defense is very below average. His baserunning is below average.

 

Love of OBP is great, but there's more to this game than walks and home runs.

[Bruno7481]

Dunn's splits month by month.

 

April, .265/.432/.614 33K 25BB

 

May, .212/.328/.535 26K 17BB

 

June, .221/.368/.537 32K 22BB

 

July, .354/.451/.573 27K 14 BB

 

August, .188/.284/.416 39K 13BB

 

September, .153/.344/.264 33/k 19 BB

 

 

Didn't exactly produce when the Reds needed it most. Dunn is productive in his own way, he certainly has his faults too. I don't think he would be worth what the Cubs would have to give up though.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Get 'er Dunn!

[RynoRules]

Looking at that Sept split, if he had just hit a little bit this month he would have been huge. His OBP is 200 points higher than his BA, but his slugging is alarmingly low.

[Magnetic Curses]

Dunn's splits month by month.

 

April, .265/.432/.614 33K 25BB

 

May, .212/.328/.535 26K 17BB

 

June, .221/.368/.537 32K 22BB

 

July, .354/.451/.573 27K 14 BB

 

August, .188/.284/.416 39K 13BB

 

September, .153/.344/.264 33/k 19 BB

 

 

Didn't exactly produce when the Reds needed it most. Dunn is productive in his own way, he certainly has his faults too. I don't think he would be worth what the Cubs would have to give up though.

 

when did the reds need it most? a season is a season, the games in april are just as important as those in september, they count for the same number of wins, last time a checked.

[Bruno7481]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

[Magnetic Curses]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

[Bruno7481]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

 

I agree with you, but it is obvious his lack of production that past two months has hurt their chances.

[Magnetic Curses]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

 

I agree with you, but it is obvious his lack of production that past two months has hurt their chances.

 

if he had had bad or average months in april, may, june, and july and then great months in september and august we'd be talking about how amazingly clutch he is, but the effect would be the same.

 

i'll take dunn over any of our outfielders.

[CubColtPacer]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

 

I agree with you, but it is obvious his lack of production that past two months has hurt their chances.

 

if he had had bad or average months in april, may, june, and july and then great months in september and august we'd be talking about how amazingly clutch he is, but the effect would be the same.

 

i'll take dunn over any of our outfielders.

 

I think most people would (although the case for Murton is getting stronger) but is Dunn worth the amount that it would take to trade for him, and then the amount that it would take to pay him? I think that factoring both of those in that Dunn is not a big enough upgrade to be worth it, although he definitely would be an upgrade.

[Magnetic Curses]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

a season is a marathon, not a sprint, like i said. although the games appear to matter more in august and september, they really don't. don't let the "music of the spheres" fool you.

 

although a pennant race may appear to be more of a race in september, it's just as much of a race in april.

 

I agree with you, but it is obvious his lack of production that past two months has hurt their chances.

 

if he had had bad or average months in april, may, june, and july and then great months in september and august we'd be talking about how amazingly clutch he is, but the effect would be the same.

 

i'll take dunn over any of our outfielders.

 

I think most people would (although the case for Murton is getting stronger) but is Dunn worth the amount that it would take to trade for him, and then the amount that it would take to pay him? I think that factoring both of those in that Dunn is not a big enough upgrade to be worth it, although he definitely would be an upgrade.

 

i think the point is moot because there's no way that hendry does it anyway.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

So does Ramirez. Should we not pay him the big bucks because of it?

[Bruno7481]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

So does Ramirez. Should we not pay him the big bucks because of it?

 

Yes, and here is why.

 

A-Ram plays 3B, a position that is at a failry high premium compared to outfielders. Also, I don't think A-Ram's numbers fluctuate as extremely as Adam Dunn's. Aramis' month of April was brutal, but that has been about it. I don''t think you can really compare the two in regards to your question.

 

I'm not arguing that he is worthless or unproductive, he is certainly productive. But at the same time, he has some pretty big flaws and his lack of consistency holds him back from being a truly elite player, imo.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

So does Ramirez. Should we not pay him the big bucks because of it?

 

Yes, and here is why.

 

A-Ram plays 3B, a position that is at a failry high premium compared to outfielders. Also, I don't think A-Ram's numbers fluctuate as extremely as Adam Dunn's. Aramis' month of April was brutal, but that has been about it. I don''t think you can really compare the two in regards to your question.

 

I'm not arguing that he is worthless or unproductive, he is certainly productive. But at the same time, he has some pretty big flaws and his lack of consistency holds him back from being a truly elite player, imo.

 

So, you criticize Dunn for not showing up when you think his team needed him most, yet don't find the same fault that Ramirez didn't start playing until his team didn't need him.

 

Ramirez in April: 197/321/394

Dunn in Sept: 145/330/250

 

Both are pretty bad.

 

Ramirez in May:266/296/495

Dunn in August: 188/284/416

 

Both had two horrible months. Ramirez began his season with two bad months, while Dunn ended his with two bad months.

 

Season stats:

Ramirez: 290/350/558

Dunn: 233/366/493

 

Ramirez has had a better year, but not substantially. Ramirez may play third, but he plays it nearly as bad as Dunn plays left. Furthermore, a bad play by the 3b likely affects the team more than a bad play in left.

 

Your argument that advocates signing Ramirez while piddling away his first two months while using Dunn's last two months as proof not to acquire him lacks as much consistinecy as Dunn or Ramirez combined.

[Bruno7481]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

So does Ramirez. Should we not pay him the big bucks because of it?

 

Yes, and here is why.

 

A-Ram plays 3B, a position that is at a failry high premium compared to outfielders. Also, I don't think A-Ram's numbers fluctuate as extremely as Adam Dunn's. Aramis' month of April was brutal, but that has been about it. I don''t think you can really compare the two in regards to your question.

 

I'm not arguing that he is worthless or unproductive, he is certainly productive. But at the same time, he has some pretty big flaws and his lack of consistency holds him back from being a truly elite player, imo.

 

So, you criticize Dunn for not showing up when you think his team needed him most, yet don't find the same fault that Ramirez didn't start playing until his team didn't need him.

 

Ramirez in April: 197/321/394

Dunn in Sept: 145/330/250

 

Both are pretty bad.

 

Ramirez in May:266/296/495

Dunn in August: 188/284/416

 

Both had two horrible months. Ramirez began his season with two bad months, while Dunn ended his with two bad months.

 

Season stats:

Ramirez: 290/350/558

Dunn: 233/366/493

 

Ramirez has had a better year, but not substantially. Ramirez may play third, but he plays it nearly as bad as Dunn plays left. Furthermore, a bad play by the 3b likely affects the team more than a bad play in left.

 

Your argument that advocates signing Ramirez while piddling away his first two months while using Dunn's last two months as proof not to acquire him lacks as much consistinecy as Dunn or Ramirez combined.

 

I'm advocating signing Ramirez because he is the most productive player the Cubs currently have, they need to keep him.

 

I'm not dogging Dunn, but I don't think the Cubs should give the farm for him either. I would explore other alternatives through FA before committing a lot of young talent towards acquiring Dunn.

 

I do thnk Dunn has hurt his team the last few months, the numbers show it. The Reds have had the equivalent production of Nefi Perez playing everyday in LF since August, well maybe not that bad, but pretty close.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Of course they all count the same. But, the Reds were in it late. They lost Griffey, and certianly needed some production. Dunn has been worthless since August. I think that can correlate to the Reds stagnation since then. Is that a wrong asessment?

 

That lineup is very good when healthy, scary good at times.

 

Dunn has been good in April and July. Average in the other months, and completely worthless since August.

 

I'm not a Dunn hater, but he has some consistency problems that hold him back.

 

So does Ramirez. Should we not pay him the big bucks because of it?

 

Yes, and here is why.

 

A-Ram plays 3B, a position that is at a failry high premium compared to outfielders. Also, I don't think A-Ram's numbers fluctuate as extremely as Adam Dunn's. Aramis' month of April was brutal, but that has been about it. I don''t think you can really compare the two in regards to your question.

 

I'm not arguing that he is worthless or unproductive, he is certainly productive. But at the same time, he has some pretty big flaws and his lack of consistency holds him back from being a truly elite player, imo.

 

So, you criticize Dunn for not showing up when you think his team needed him most, yet don't find the same fault that Ramirez didn't start playing until his team didn't need him.

 

Ramirez in April: 197/321/394

Dunn in Sept: 145/330/250

 

Both are pretty bad.

 

Ramirez in May:266/296/495

Dunn in August: 188/284/416

 

Both had two horrible months. Ramirez began his season with two bad months, while Dunn ended his with two bad months.

 

Season stats:

Ramirez: 290/350/558

Dunn: 233/366/493

 

Ramirez has had a better year, but not substantially. Ramirez may play third, but he plays it nearly as bad as Dunn plays left. Furthermore, a bad play by the 3b likely affects the team more than a bad play in left.

 

Your argument that advocates signing Ramirez while piddling away his first two months while using Dunn's last two months as proof not to acquire him lacks as much consistinecy as Dunn or Ramirez combined.

 

I'm advocating signing Ramirez because he is the most productive player the Cubs currently have, they need to keep him.

 

I'm not dogging Dunn, but I don't think the Cubs should give the farm for him either. I would explore other alternatives through FA before committing a lot of young talent towards acquiring Dunn.

 

I do thnk Dunn has hurt his team the last few months, the numbers show it. The Reds have had the equivalent production of Nefi Perez playing everyday in LF since August, well maybe not that bad, but pretty close.

 

Dunn hasn't hurt his team any more than Ramirez hurt his in April and May.

 

And there aren't a lot of options in FA except for Carlos Lee and Soriano. Both of those will be paid more than Dunn is due in the next two years. Dunn is also younger and likely to outproduce them.

 

And based on his last two months, now might be the time to acquire Dunn who is just now entering his prime.