Slugging Matt Murton

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No option, he's a free agent this offseason.

 

He's also showing signs of aging rapidly.

[goonys evil twin]

No option, he's a free agent this offseason.

 

He's also showing signs of aging rapidly.

 

Kent I assume? I really have no interest. Nor do I have a lot of interets in the soon to be 35 year old Ray Durham. I'd prefer this team do what it can to get younger impact players. I could live with a stop gap here or there, but I wouldn't be targeting them right now.

[garsky]

What if the Cubs went after Kent for 2b, re-signed Pierre, and then pulled off a trade for Tejada. That could shore up things. That line-up would look like this:

 

CF Pierre

LF Murton

1b Lee

3b Ramirez

SS Tejada

2b Kent

RF Jones

C Barrett

 

That's a damn potent line-up! How realistic it is, I don't know.

 

Probably not very. I did the numbers a couple of months ago, and for the Cubs to be able to afford one position and one pitching free agent means we have to play a couple of kids. So, either no Kent or no Pierre, instead Theriot/Fontenot or Pie (or maybe both).

 

Hendry re-signing Pierre :cry: (and most likely giving ARam a raise) probably prohibits him trading for Tejada, too. Tho that may create salary space for a Ray Durham type.

 

Think:

 

CF Pierre

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

C Barrett

RF Jones

2B Durham

SS Izturis

 

or

 

2B Theriot/Fontenot

LF Murton

1B Lee

CF AJones

3B Ramirez

C Barrett

RF Jones

SS Izturis

 

Both are minor improvements over this year, and combined with a pitching upgrade, we may compete.

 

Not having a power guy in the minors ready to step in really limits what can be done. Thirty more home runs and 20 points of OBP turns this into a halfway decent offense.

[jmajew]

What if the Cubs went after Kent for 2b, re-signed Pierre, and then pulled off a trade for Tejada. That could shore up things. That line-up would look like this:

 

CF Pierre

LF Murton

1b Lee

3b Ramirez

SS Tejada

2b Kent

RF Jones

C Barrett

 

That's a damn potent line-up! How realistic it is, I don't know.

 

Probably not very. I did the numbers a couple of months ago, and for the Cubs to be able to afford one position and one pitching free agent means we have to play a couple of kids. So, either no Kent or no Pierre, instead Theriot/Fontenot or Pie (or maybe both).

 

Hendry re-signing Pierre :cry: (and most likely giving ARam a raise) probably prohibits him trading for Tejada, too. Tho that may create salary space for a Ray Durham type.

 

Think:

 

CF Pierre

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

C Barrett

RF Jones

2B Durham

SS Izturis

 

or

 

2B Theriot/Fontenot

LF Murton

1B Lee

CF AJones

3B Ramirez

C Barrett

RF Jones

SS Izturis

 

Both are minor improvements over this year, and combined with a pitching upgrade, we may compete.

 

Not having a power guy in the minors ready to step in really limits what can be done. Thirty more home runs and 20 points of OBP turns this into a halfway decent offense.

 

We should be looking to trade Jacque JOnes. There are a lot of overpriced outfielders who teams may be looking to dump. Guys like Pat Burrell, JD Drew, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells. My two ideal guys would be Wells and Burrell. I could definitely see Gillick wanting to dump Burrell's salary and be willing to take Jones and a pitcher who will be ready for next season, Marshall/Guzman/Mateo/Marmol. The Phillies could use the 5 million they save on another starter for next year. The problem with Wells is do we have the resources to get him. I highly doubt they would take Jones.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No option, he's a free agent this offseason.

 

He's also showing signs of aging rapidly.

 

Kent I assume? I really have no interest. Nor do I have a lot of interets in the soon to be 35 year old Ray Durham. I'd prefer this team do what it can to get younger impact players. I could live with a stop gap here or there, but I wouldn't be targeting them right now.

 

Yeah, I meant Kent.

 

I think age is finally going to hit him next season (I thought it had this season but he's had a great second half). If the Cubs go the power route at 2B, I'd prefer Soriano (and look for a stopgap in CF if you want Pie to return to AAA).

[Magnetic Curses]

I see Murton posting numbers comparable to Rusty Greer.

 

Greer's career line: 305/387/475. That's not bad and I think that is attainable for Murton.

 

At 27-28, Greer posted SLG of 530 and 531 respectively. Murton may be able to do that in his best years as well. Greer's lowest BA was 271 in a year he still posted a 355 OBP. His lowest OBP was 342 in a year in which he struggled with injuries. A few times, Greer exceeded a 400 OBP. I think Murton could follow a similar track, and hopefully without the injuries that hampered Greer.

 

is this because they both have red hair?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I see Murton posting numbers comparable to Rusty Greer.

 

Greer's career line: 305/387/475. That's not bad and I think that is attainable for Murton.

 

At 27-28, Greer posted SLG of 530 and 531 respectively. Murton may be able to do that in his best years as well. Greer's lowest BA was 271 in a year he still posted a 355 OBP. His lowest OBP was 342 in a year in which he struggled with injuries. A few times, Greer exceeded a 400 OBP. I think Murton could follow a similar track, and hopefully without the injuries that hampered Greer.

 

is this because they both have red hair?

 

Not really. I just think they are both similar players at the plate.

[Guest]

I ran your first lineup Vance and its better than ok averaging 800 runs with a low of 706 and a high of 916. Note that modifications were made to make this a better predictive number. The standard deviation is still high at 44 but that has a lot to do with the luck involved in baseball.

 

There will probably be regression from Durham and Andruw that could result in an overestimate but I think the balance 1-7 makes that a strong lineup.

 

I don't think Kent is a good option. Durham is far less likely to regress in my opinion. I am also wary of Andruw depending on his cost. Andruw and Durham would likely be better than just Soriano though and definitely better than just Carlos Lee.

[garsky]

We should be looking to trade Jacque JOnes. There are a lot of overpriced outfielders who teams may be looking to dump. Guys like Pat Burrell, JD Drew, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells. My two ideal guys would be Wells and Burrell. I could definitely see Gillick wanting to dump Burrell's salary and be willing to take Jones and a pitcher who will be ready for next season, Marshall/Guzman/Mateo/Marmol. The Phillies could use the 5 million they save on another starter for next year. The problem with Wells is do we have the resources to get him. I highly doubt they would take Jones.

 

If we could get a young kid with power in exchange for Jones, I'd do that. Unfortunately the time for doing that was before the trading deadline.

 

Jones is actually fairly cheap for his production--of course, common sense says he's not going to be able to maintain that production. So trading him for someone who makes MORE than him will only limit our ability to make more necessary moves.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Slg.

Rondell .465

Murton .469 (and Murton has a career .20 BA advantage on Rondell)

 

That's actually not a good thing.

 

Right. Except i meant to say .020 Stupid decimal places.

 

I actually didn't even notice. Point is that Murton has less power because he's more average dependent. This is even more important since Murton outperformed his BABIP by about 20 points thus far in his MLB career. If/when he reverts to his expected levels, then he's Rondell White with even less power, and that's not very good at all.

[cubweiser03]

Slg.

Rondell .465

Murton .469 (and Murton has a career .20 BA advantage on Rondell)

 

That's actually not a good thing.

 

Right. Except i meant to say .020 Stupid decimal places.

 

I actually didn't even notice. Point is that Murton has less power because he's more average dependent. This is even more important since Murton outperformed his BABIP by about 20 points thus far in his MLB career. If/when he reverts to his expected levels, then he's Rondell White with even less power, and that's not very good at all.

 

You articulated my point better here with your 2nd sentence :) BABIP takes it further.