Some ideas on the Cubs as they stand

[LuvChicagoSports]

Ok, a lot of what I am going to say has been said by other people in topics all over. From news reporters to you guys that are on here everyday, but I have yet to see everything brought into one topic that covers all of this.

 

Heading into this season I for one did not want to see Dusty Baker back to manage the Cubs, but given the instability at the manager postition for the Cubs I can totally understand why Hendry decided to keep him around. I know many other fans wanted to see Baker get the boot as well, but given the fact that he did actually have a respectable first two seasons with the Cubs (I believe other managers could have done better) Baker was retained. If anything this allowed for some stability in an organization that has had very little in the recent past.

The biggest isssue with the relationship between Dusty Baker and Jim Hendry is that they see eye to eye on everything. Given the fact that I don't think anyone in baseball can have a perfect outlook on how to build or manage a team, I think it is vital to have people who can work well together but have different opinions on how things should get accomplished. Hendry doesn't see the importance of obp. as we all know and hate, but if he had a manager who believed in getting on base, then the players Hendry brings in could be coached to have better dicipline and work for a pitch that could be driven rather than having a free swinging approach. On the other side, if Baker was the manager, and Hendry only brought in guys who naturally had good plate vision and would not swing at bad pitches (e.g. Derrek Lee) even when the coaching staff taught players to be aggressive at the plate, then the you would see a more evenly balanced team. The problem with our whole management team, is that everyone believes in aggressive hitting and not letting the pitcher dictate the ab's by trying to be aggressive early in the count. As we have seen this philosophy is actually very flawed because pitchers do dictate most ab's because they get the hitters to swing at pitchers pitches which lead to easy outs.

As with everything just knowing the problem doesn't do much for anyone. Having a solution for that problem is the hard and most important part. Obviously none of us can have a say in fixing the team that we love so much because other (quite possibly less capable) people are chosen to do this task for us. Nonetheless, it is part of being a fan to try to share your vision with others and discuss ways to make your team better. The best thing in my mind to do would be to blow up the entire management operation all the way up the ladder, but since that is obviously not going to happen, let's look at what we could do with what is currently in place.

At the end of the season, the Cubs will part ways with Dusty Baker in what will be said to be a mutual agreement. Andy MacPhail will remain team president and Jim Hendry will remain as the GM of the team. Ideally we will see a manager brought in who understands the benifits of stats like .ops and how to properly teach players to work at improving .obp and slugging. Managers that have been brought up include; Joe Girardi, Larry Dierker, Lou Piniella, and Fredi Gonzalez among others. Joe Girardi might be a favorite choice among fans and local media because of his ties to the team and what he has been able to accomplish with a young team in Florida. Lou Piniella is the opposite of Dusty Baker as far as not being tolerant of poor fundamentals and he's somewhat of a loose cannon which some people want after watching the way the Cubs play on a daily basis. Dierker would be appealing because of his philosophies. He believes in the use of stats and understands how they can be important. He has a good mangerial record although his poor showing in the playoffs is somewhat of a concern. That aside, his managing put a Houston team, that was certainly not the most talented every season, consistently into contention. Gonzalez is attractive because he comes from a good coaching pedigree. Right now he is the third base coach for the Braves and has gone through an extensive coaching career to get where he is now. Personally I feel the best choices for the team are Fredi Gonzalez and Larry Dierker, but arguments could be made for all 4 of the candidates as well as others.

The next major issue with which the Cubs would have to deal with is what to do with personnel and who to try to have on your team come the 2007 season. The Cubs currently have some important pieces already set for next season. Derrek Lee will be back at 1b and Carlos Zambrano will be throwing off the mound as usual. There are some major question marks at other places on the team however, and hopefully we can make some things happen to improve both the pitching and offense before we head into Spring Training next March. I would like to see a few things happen. First, I want to see the Cubs take care of things to keep Aramis Ramirez around for the forseeable future. I think it is imperative that the Cubs land either Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito. We need another frontline starter to pair with Carlos Zambrano. I also would like to see them add another starter like Gil Meche or Adam Eaton. If you could land two of the four that would give you a potential rotation of:

 

1. Carlos Zambrano

2. Barry Zito/Jason Schmidt

3. Gil Meche/Adam Eaton

4. Mark Prior

5. Sean Marshall/Rich Hill/Angel Guzman/Carlos Marmol

 

Let's assume that Prior gets hurt and you have to insert one of the four young guys into his spot in the rotation. That is still a solid rotation and would give the team a chance to win if a decent offense can be put together. The bullpen is just about set already but here is a look.

 

Cl- Ryan Dempster

Bobby Howry

Scott Eyre

Michael Wuertz

Will Ohman

David Aardsma/Roberto Novoa

 

to close it out maybe you sign Kerry Wood to an incentive laden deal, but personally I would just rather see the Cubs move on and wish the best of luck to Kerry.

On offense I think the Cubs should let Juan Pierre go, but I believe Hendry is going to sign him as a justification for trading away three prospects for him unless Pie can come up and play extremely well in this last month. Either way I think the Cubs should make a very strong play to sign Alfonso Soriano. His bat would be a great addition to the Cubs lineup and could help the Cubs power numbers in a home ballpark built for offense. I also think the Cubs should go after Frank Catalanotto to play LF for us and then we could platoon Murton and Jones in RF. That would give us an opening day lineup of.

 

1. Juan Pierre CF

2. Frank Catalanotto LF

3. Derrek Lee 1b

4. Aramis Ramirez 3b

5. Alfonso Soriano 2b

6. Jauque Jones RF

7. Michael Barrett C

8. Ceasar Izturis SS

 

I think that lineup could do much more damage and consistently score runs. I don't know what the money would be and if this is even feasable, but getting rid of the contracts of Kerry Wood and Greg Maddux should help out some with more money being free to bring in some players. I love the Cubs and desperately want to see major improvements soon. I'd love to get opinions from you guys on everything I've written.

[Rob]

If Gil Meche is considered an integral part of the rotation, we aren't competing.

[LuvChicagoSports]

If Gil Meche is considered an integral part of the rotation, we aren't competing.

 

Look at the Cardinals. They have Jason Marquis and Jeff Weaver in their rotation and they are competing. You do not have to have frontline guys 1-5 to be good. You just have to have guys that can keep you in the game and be effective. Not everyone on your team is going to have a sub 4 ERA that is just part of the game.

[Rob]

Perhaps not, but I'd certainly expect a sub 5 ERA from our newly dubbed #3 starter, and Meche can't be even close to a guarantee for that.

 

Let's lay out his abilities here, shall we?

 

His strikeout rate comes in around 40% of the league average. His walk rate at around 20%. And to top it all off, his GB/FB ratio is pretty weak.

 

He could be perfectly serviceable in a sizeable ballpark with a decent defense... but a high walk rate at Wrigley field? All his flyballs would be zooming right out of the park.

 

Wrigley needs groundball pitchers, or at least pitchers that don't have high walk rates. Meche isn't either of those things.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

1. Juan Pierre CF

2. Frank Catalanotto LF

3. Derrek Lee 1b

4. Aramis Ramirez 3b

5. Alfonso Soriano 2b

6. Jauque Jones RF

7. Michael Barrett C

8. Ceasar Izturis SS

 

Murton can give us similar production to Catalanotto minus some slugging, but with the potential to still add more. If we get Catalanotto we should just put him in RF to replace Jones or try Jones in CF and get rid of Pierre.

[Sammy Sofa]

Novoa's name shouldn't even be considered as part of this team in any capacity.

 

Not even batting practice.

[third eye]

Based on today's performance, Hill and Murton are certainly making stronger cases for themselves. Ray Durham is an interesting thought at 2nd for the next year or two, though I doubt he can repeat this year's output. Any thoughts on Vincente Padilla for a number 4 starter? Someone mentioned Adam Eaton, who I like as well. Either one might be a decent option at the back of the rotation - only if we can land a strong number 2.

 

I'll admit I'm a little drunk on Rich Hill Koolaid, but he's looking like he might even be a number three. His control has been terrific since the beginning of August. More importantly, he seems to be efficient with his pitch counts allowing him to work deeper into games than any of the other rookies (or vets on this team for that matter). I only hope this does not turn into a case of advance scouting solving him on his next turn through the league. OK, enough of the irrational exhuberance for now.

[baseball7897]

I dont like the bullpen. Counting on guys like Novoa or Aardsma is foolish.

[Sammy Sofa]

I dont like the bullpen. Counting on guys like Novoa or Aardsma is foolish.

 

Aardsma has at least shown he can control his fastball and strike out guys more consistently than Novoa. In short, Aardsma shows he has potential...Novoa has shown he's a disaster.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If Gil Meche is considered an integral part of the rotation, we aren't competing.

 

Look at the Cardinals. They have Jason Marquis and Jeff Weaver in their rotation and they are competing. You do not have to have frontline guys 1-5 to be good. You just have to have guys that can keep you in the game and be effective. Not everyone on your team is going to have a sub 4 ERA that is just part of the game.

 

They also have Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter, and the good fortune of playing in a super weak division in a horrible league. Adding mediocrity just because there's a perception it's working for someone else is a bad idea.

[LuvChicagoSports]

If Gil Meche is considered an integral part of the rotation, we aren't competing.

 

Look at the Cardinals. They have Jason Marquis and Jeff Weaver in their rotation and they are competing. You do not have to have frontline guys 1-5 to be good. You just have to have guys that can keep you in the game and be effective. Not everyone on your team is going to have a sub 4 ERA that is just part of the game.

 

They also have Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter, and the good fortune of playing in a super weak division in a horrible league. Adding mediocrity just because there's a perception it's working for someone else is a bad idea.

 

I totally hear you on that one, but simply put the Cubs are a train wreck right now and I don't really see being able to fix the whole thing in just one off-season. I'm not advocating putting a lot of faith into a guy like Meche, I just think it could at least give us someone who would consistently give some innings and at least a chance to win. I don't want the Cubs to just be ok I want them to be good, but I think it is going to be a process of a few years before things could take a dramatic change.

[NewUserName]

I would rather go with 2 out of Hill, Marshall, Guzman and Marmol than have Gil Meche. Since Prior will probably be out for extended time that would make 3. I am not against this but I am guessing most Cub fans arent patient enough for this.

 

I would bet that Murton would put up a higer ops than any of the 3 guys you have listed to start next season if he is given the chance. I also think that Pie would do just as well as Pierre if not better for A LOT less money.

 

I would be for adding Soriano but I think his contract will be an albatross in 2 years. If the Cubs used Murton, Pie and a couple of young starter it shouldnt make a difference though.

 

What I think the Cubs will do is way overpay for mediocre players though. More Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones types.

[J.R.]

Novoa's name shouldn't even be considered as part of this team in any capacity.

 

Not even batting practice.

 

WTF do people see in this guy?

[LuvChicagoSports]

Like I was trying to say this isn't all the ideal moves I would want the Cubs to make. It's a mix of things that I am taking into consideration like the fact that I don't think Hendry is going to let Pierre go even though I would like that. Also, I do not view Meche or Eaton as a good 3rd or 4th starter, but something that would be viable addition for the next couple of years as we try to get back to being a competitive team. Also the reason I don't make changes to the bullpen is that we already have too much money wrapped up in the pen. Sure it would be nice to get rid of a guy like Novoa, but we already have so much money wrapped up in the pen that we can't justify spending more when we can't even get a lead to allow the bullpen to really do it's job in the first place.