McGwire Avoiding MLB's Steroid Investigation

[Transmogrified Tiger]

McGwire had a HOF caliber career well before he hit 70 and was accused of using performance enhancers.

[wolf stansson]

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[bhogg]

McGwire had a HOF caliber career well before he hit 70 and was accused of using performance enhancers.

 

 

after his rookie season (87), he didn't hit over .260 until 1992 (.268). After '87 he didn't post a slg% above .500 til 1992.

 

His '91 season was wonderful. . . .201 / 22 hr / .383 slg

 

95 is when he really started mashing. Of course, everyone started mashing in 1996. . . .

 

 

345 of his homers were hit from 95 - retirement.

 

 

He killed his HoF chances when he "testified" for Congress. I believe that put enough doubt in the voters' minds that they'll look at the numbers and say "hey, this guy didn't do much before he started juicing. .. .no way I vote for him."

[soccer10k]

McGwire had a HOF caliber career well before he hit 70 and was accused of using performance enhancers.

 

He might have had a HOF caliber career if you exclude his numbers from 1998 on. But well before? Not a chance. Going into the 1996 season he only had 277 HR's on his career. For a power hitter, those aren't HOF numbers. Going into his 1998 he had just 387 HR's. Still not HOF numbers for a power hitter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

McGwire had a HOF caliber career well before he hit 70 and was accused of using performance enhancers.

 

He might have had a HOF caliber career if you exclude his numbers from 1998 on. But well before? Not a chance. Going into the 1996 season he only had 277 HR's on his career. For a power hitter, those aren't HOF numbers. Going into his 1998 he had just 387 HR's. Still not HOF numbers for a power hitter.

 

Well obviously if you take his career numbers at that point they don't stack up. Point is that he had OPS+'s of 164, 134, 130, 143, 175, 224, 137, 200, and 223 all before he went to St. Louis. It's not like he was a middling slugger before he broke the record.

[wolf stansson]

If you want a HOF case to be made and you look at pre-Cards rate stats and counting stats you'll get two different stories. He missed very significant time for three straight years in 93, 94, and 95 which affected his counting stats, but his rate stats stayed consistently.

 

It's actually pretty clear to see when (if, lol, if) he began taking steroids.

 

In 1991, he played in 154 games hitting 22 homeruns with a .201/.330/.383 line. This after years of .987, .830, .806, and .859.

 

So after one horrible year after 4 very solid years he goes on a 10 year tear putting up absolutely ridiculous power numbers.

[cheapseats]

FWIW, in McGwire's peak 7 years, he posted 83.7 WARP, and the average HOF 1B has 80.6, so before even worrying about performance enhancing drugs, McGwire has the numbers, but not by a whole lot.

 

Jay Jaffe's JAWS metric ranks McGwire as the 11th-best 1B of all-time, behind contemporaries Jeff Bagwell (3rd), Rafael Palmeiro (7th), and Frank Thomas (9th).

 

You'd think Bagwell would be a lock, but those who vote and only look at counting stats might forget that the Astrodome was an extreme pitcher's park.

 

Palmeiro probably won't get in b/c of steroids, and I wouldn't be surprised if McGwire doesn't get voted in, either.

 

Frank Thomas should be there, but less than half of his games have come at 1B, so he'll have to overcome the stigma of being a DH.

[soccer10k]

McGwire had a HOF caliber career well before he hit 70 and was accused of using performance enhancers.

 

He might have had a HOF caliber career if you exclude his numbers from 1998 on. But well before? Not a chance. Going into the 1996 season he only had 277 HR's on his career. For a power hitter, those aren't HOF numbers. Going into his 1998 he had just 387 HR's. Still not HOF numbers for a power hitter.

 

Well obviously if you take his career numbers at that point they don't stack up. Point is that he had OPS+'s of 164, 134, 130, 143, 175, 224, 137, 200, and 223 all before he went to St. Louis. It's not like he was a middling slugger before he broke the record.

 

I'll agree with that. Like cheapseats and wolf pointed out, HOF voters look at counting numbers and before he hit 70, McGwire didn't have enough to get into the Hall of Fame. But McGwire, when healthy, was one of the most feared sluggers in baseball during his career.

[PujolsPower]

It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.

 

I remember when he retired me and a lot of other Cardinals fans were commending him for walking away from 24 mil left on his contract because he couldn't hack it anymore. More likely is he knew the jig was about up and he walked away before the storm hit. Everyone was mystified why he completely isolated himself from the Cardinals and baseball in general. Now we have a pretty good idea why.

 

I still believe that it was a humble move on his part. He had been offered a two year extension. All he had to do was sign it and he would collect the money, even knowing that he would not be playing the next season. He could have gotten paid, regardless of what storm might be on the horizon.

[PujolsPower]

 

Look at Pete Rose, for years people said "If he only admitted to the gambling he'd be welcomed back with open arms" but once he did admit it people said "Why didn't you do it sooner?"

 

I think the fact that he wrote a book in order to profit from his admission and everything was announced on the day that the new HOF class was introduced may have had something to do with Rose not being welcomed with open arms.

[soccer10k]

Palmeiro probably won't get in b/c of steroids, and I wouldn't be surprised if McGwire doesn't get voted in, either.

 

I actually had a conversation about this with my dad today and he brought up a statement that was made but didn't remember who made it: "It's the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Very Good." Palmeiro was very good at his position for a number of years and benefited from playing a long time and staying healthy. But he was never known as the best player at his position in the game at any time during his career and was often overlooked. He would have been elected to the HOF if he didn't test positive but because he did, as you said, he probably won't get in.

 

McGwire has the benefit of breaking Maris' record and being known as one of the most feared hitters in the game when he was healthy. I think he will ultimately get in but it will probably take a few years.