Cubs Minor League First Half Discussion

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Campusano is the clear cut winner. I'd say Mendez is well deserving of 2nd place and Rapada and Avery are close for third.

[mhuber92211]

how can you guys ignore Rapada's AA numbers! Only ?? is what took them so long to promote him

[Outshined_One]

how can you guys ignore Rapada's AA numbers! Only ?? is what took them so long to promote him

 

Campusano struck out more batters in fewer innings and had a better WHIP and BAA (.180) at Peoria than Rapada at West Tenn (BAA: .194). He also handled his promotion to AA better than Rapada handled his promotion to AAA.

 

Both were terrific, but I liked Campusano's performance better than Rapada's.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

how can you guys ignore Rapada's AA numbers! Only ?? is what took them so long to promote him

 

Campy handled his (double) promotion better. Rapada was definitely better at West Tenn than Campusano at Peoria.

[Outshined_One]

Okay, I got caught up in my own stuff back home and will be pushing the risers and fallers list back a day. Sorry!

[Outshined_One]

Risers

 

This list of guys are the ones who have made an impact in one way or another over the first half of the season that have seen their prospect status rise a fair deal thanks to their stats and improvements made. Some of these guys have been covered above, but I'll go more in-depth on them.

 

That said, this list is not all-encompassing. I'm utilizing this list as a way to make people more aware of various prospects who have helped their causes significantly this season; rather than guys who have made it to the majors and had extended looks. We know what Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol have done and are capable of based on their stints in the majors. We know Rich Hill has nothing left to prove at AAA.

 

Also, I'm evaluating this from more of a prospect standpoint rather than a performance standpoint. Some of the names I'll be leaving off have had good seasons, but perhaps they were too old for their level or their ceiling is not very promising. In other cases, my memory may fail me and I'll accidentally leave off some names.

 

Remember, this is for fun and education. The other experts around here can fill in the blanks. ;)

 

Let's begin, shall we?

 

Rebounding From Injury

 

These are guys who have been bogged down with significant injuries recently, but have re-established themselves as healthy and ready to go.

 

1B Ryan Norwood - A freak ankle injury took him out before the 2005 season in Peoria, sidelining him for the year. Prior to that, in Boise, he had posted a fairly respectable season (.296/.327/.469 with 9 HRs and 17 2Bs in 277 ABs). This season, he has been a reliable hitter for Peoria with excellent defense around 1B. His age is a bit of a concern (23), but I have a feeling he'll be moving through the system fairly quickly next year.

 

SP Billy Petrick - Keep holding your breath; it seems like everyone's new favorite heavy sinkerballer in the minors is getting his career back on track in Boise. He's coming back from a shoulder injury that saw him sit out over a year. Shoulder surgery is still a delicate procedure, but if he can make a full recovery, you can guarantee he'll make a strong comeback onto a number of top prospect lists.

 

OF Nic Jackson - The feel-good story of the year in the Cubs' organization. Once a highly prized and rated prospect, injuries absolutely hurt his career and potential. Now 26 years old, he's currently making a late resurgence that could see him end up with the Cubs in the near future. He's been hitting quite well for average and posting good OBP numbers. While his power numbers are lacking, he's making a strong effort and could be a terrific asset off the bench as a major leaguer.

 

Cont'd in my next post...

[Outshined_One]

Rocketing Up the List!

 

The following guys before this season were once regarded as prospects rated in various ways. However, this season, they have made a significant jump, be it through improving their stuff, coming out of nowhere to make an impact, or put up consistent and strong performances.

 

SP Sean Gallagher - Come on, he has to make this list. Most people around here absolutely love the guy as a prospect (and some are lucky enough to know him!), but this season helped solidify his status as one of the best pitching prospects in this organization. Questions about his stuff have now been put to rest since he has managed to improve his velocity and sharpen his secondary pitches since last season (including the infamous 101 mph reading on a radar gun down in the FSL). I love a guy who has a bulldog mentality and isn't afraid to challenge hitters; he's managed to accomplish that in spades so far. If he can keep this up, the Cubs have a terrific keeper on their hands. If Rich Hill gets called up and Marmol continues to get innings, he has a very strong case for #1 pitching prospect in the Cubs system.

 

SP Mitch Atkins - If you look back on this site's top prospect lists, you'll see his name come up, such as last season when he was ranked #46 in the system. This season, he's rocketed his way up the charts with a terrific performance down in Peoria. He's managed to locate his pitches better and change speeds, which goes a long way for pitchers. Don't be surprised to see him in the Top 15 at the end of the season...if not the Top 10.

 

OF Alfred Joseph - Well, this comes as a pleasant surprise. The Cubs tried out as a pitcher, but then coverted him to an outfielder, his original position in high school. That move had paid great dividends, considering he's one of the best hitters in the NWL right now. Boise has seen plenty of flashy plays, all-out hustle, and surprising power& speed from Joseph. He still has a few things to work on, but it seems Boise has some really intriguing guys on their roster.

 

RP Jeremy Papelbon - 17 innings, 4 hits, 0 ER, 19/4 K/BB. Think he's going to be promoted from Boise soon?

 

OF Miguel Negron - I really, really, really do not know what to think about this guy. On the one hand, he's young enough to still be a legitimate prospect and has showcased good power and good hit rates. On the other hand, he was floundering with the Blue Jays, has only had 133 ABs, and has a really questionable walk rate. I'm willing to give a pass to guys in the lower minors with similar problems regarding sample size and patience because they have plenty of coaching and adjustments left to make. Negron, on the other hand, is high enough that he's gone through those things...and yet he's still not posting reasonable walk rates and only has one home run. I can't tell if this is a fluky hot streak or if he has genuinely resurrected his career. In any case, it's impossible to leave him off a list like this.

 

C Jake Fox - Covered him above. He seems to slowly be adjusting to life in AA, which is where he should have been at the beginning of the season. Oh well. Make them regret it, Jake! :D

 

SP Donald Veal - I'd say he's the guy who's done the most for his status as a prospect than everyone else on this list. Posting an impressive scoreless innings streak down at Daytona right after being promoted was tremendous. A lefthander with his kind of stuff is exciting to have in this system; if he finishes up the season still throwing in the 90s with good secondary stuff, the Cubs will have a terrific prospect on their hands. Between Dontrelle Willis, Will Ohman, Renyel Pinto, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, and John Koronka, the Cubs have been doing a pretty good job identifying lefties when it comes to pitching lately. Hopefully they can improve on it with Veal.

 

IF Jonathan Mota - I have no idea what this guy's ceiling looks like or how much upside he has...but the fact that he turned 19 a little over a month ago and is currently in Daytona hitting .281 with three doubles and two triples in 57 ABs over less than a month has to say something about the guy. He merits keeping an eye on, needless to say.

[Outshined_One]

Sleepers

 

Looking for some guys in the system who could be making a name for themselves a year or two from now?

 

SS Dylan Johnston - "But he's hitting .200 and has a ton of errors!" you might be protesting. Take a closer look at him! A 19 year old who's still learning the nuances of shortstop with all the tools needed to make the adjustment given time with coaching. The thing I like I most about him? He has a .106 IsoD, one of the best in the system. His K/BB isn't pretty, but he knows how to draw a walk. That's more than we can say for most guys in this organization. If he can get over those nagging injuries, he will blossom.

 

OF Tyler Colvin - Hard to call the 13th overall pick of the draft a sleeper, but considering a heck of a lot of people hated this pick and ripped it heavily, I think he's officially moved into underrated territory. However, I think this guy is better than people are giving him credit for. He's getting his average back up and seems to be making the transition to wood pretty well. Next season will be critical for him, but I have a feeling he might end up proving his doubters wrong. Frankly, I can't help but root for the guy.

 

OF Yusuf Carter - Recently moved into the OF and still learning the position. However, he has some impressive power to work with along with plenty of athleticism. A strong season in Daytona wll do wonders for his prospect status, given the pitcher-friendly parks and better pitching.

 

1B Russell Canzler - See Yusuf Carter, put him at 1B, and subtract a year.

 

OF Drew Rundle, OF Cliff Andersen, P Jacob Renshaw - Some of the more well-regarded picks in later rounds of this year's draft. They're all playing down in Mesa at the moment and still making adjustments to professional ball.

 

P Scott Taylor - He has a lot of things going for him and a few things against him. He gives up very few free passes, doesn't give up the long ball very often, has an intimidating approach to the game, and is still young for the league. However, he doesn't strike many guys out and he gives up a bunch of hits. I like him a lot.

[Outshined_One]

Okay, and finally for tonight, here's a list of guys who need to answer questions about themselves or could use a strong rebound soon.

 

WHA HAPPEN?!

 

The Walking Wounded

 

SP Chadd Blasko, SP Luke Hagerty, P Bobby Brownlie - *Sighs* What could have been...

 

1B Brian Dopirak - That broken leg really sucked considering he was tearing it up in Spring Training and seemed to finally have his swing back. Now, he's struggling to generate power in AA. After reading his terrific Q&A awhile ago, I can't help but hope this guy turns it around soon.

 

P Grant Johnson - Injuries seem to have forced him into the bullpen down in Daytona. Whether or not he'll stay there is anyone's guess.

 

P Mike Phelps - Considering the horrifying injury he had in college, he's bounced back impressively. However, this season has been problematic in the injuries department.

 

Show Me What You Got!

 

P Mark Pawelek - Still has plenty of time to prove himself, but this first go-round at Boise is worrying.

 

RF Ryan Harvey - There's something to be said for patience and plate discipline being drilled into guys' heads in the minors. Overaggressiveness can backfire in impressive ways. The strikeouts are bad, but the lack of walks is REALLY bad. His power is awesome and his potential is off the charts, but I have a hard time seeing the Cubs effectively turn him around as a hitter. As a pitcher, on the other hand...

 

OF Felix Pie - Getting himself back on track after a rough start. The injury hurt last season and you'd have to wonder if it was wise of the Cubs to promote him to AAA when they did. He has a world of potential, but still has plenty left to work on. Lord help the guy if the Cubs call him up and the coaching staff gets to him; it'd be ugly.

 

And the $7.25m Question...

 

P Jeff Samardzija - Not a bad outing at Boise so far and his promotion to Peoria should be intriguing. I think the Cubs are being really careful with his arm and are making the necessary adjustments he has to make if he decides to stick with pitching. However, that's a big if at this point. Stay tuned Cubs fans!

 

I think that about wraps it all up. Any comments people have are most welcome! :D

[CaliforniaRaisin]

P Mark Pawelek - Still has plenty of time to prove himself, but this first go-round at Boise is worrying.

 

It's his second go-round!

 

Angel Guzman deserves some mention somewhere on your list (Rocketing UP the List?) just for being healthy.

[Outshined_One]

P Mark Pawelek - Still has plenty of time to prove himself, but this first go-round at Boise is worrying.

 

It's his second go-round!

 

Angel Guzman deserves some mention somewhere on your list (Rocketing UP the List?) just for being healthy.

 

Ehhhh...I think Guzman's problem is staying healthy for a full season. He hasn't done that since 2002. If he can make it to the end of this season without another catastrophic injury, he'll be on that list.

 

Also, I forgot about Mark's single start at Boise last season. That doesn't really count, but... *Shrugs*

[Laura]

Great discussions, OO, thanks for doing this!

 

P Jeff Samardzija - Not a bad outing at Boise so far and his promotion to Peoria should be intriguing. I think the Cubs are being really careful with his arm and are making the necessary adjustments he has to make if he decides to stick with pitching. However, that's a big if at this point. Stay tuned Cubs fans!

 

I'm curious whether you meant "if he decides to stick with baseball" here or whether you see a possibility of him switching positions from pitcher. Samardzija is from Roast's hometown not too far from me, and there was a lot of local media attention when the Cubs drafted him. I read a couple of columns suggesting that -- if he sticks with baseball -- the Cubs would be wise to consider getting him some time in the outfield. He pitched some in high school, but made all-state as an outfielder and his athleticism was apparently evident on the defensive side.

 

Just wondering if that's something you had in mind.

[Outshined_One]

Great discussions, OO, thanks for doing this!

 

P Jeff Samardzija - Not a bad outing at Boise so far and his promotion to Peoria should be intriguing. I think the Cubs are being really careful with his arm and are making the necessary adjustments he has to make if he decides to stick with pitching. However, that's a big if at this point. Stay tuned Cubs fans!

 

I'm curious whether you meant "if he decides to stick with baseball" here or whether you see a possibility of him switching positions from pitcher. Samardzija is from Roast's hometown not too far from me, and there was a lot of local media attention when the Cubs drafted him. I read a couple of columns suggesting that -- if he sticks with baseball -- the Cubs would be wise to consider getting him some time in the outfield. He pitched some in high school, but made all-state as an outfielder and his athleticism was apparently evident on the defensive side.

 

Just wondering if that's something you had in mind.

 

I was unaware of his time as a position player! I meant if he decided to stick with baseball. That's interesting to know, though.

[ChiCubsFan]

Harvey is getting hot!

 

Let's just hope this is a sign of things to come and not just a 10 game hot streak (which I'm afraid that's all it is).

 

Ryan Harvey blasted a grand slam and drove in seven runs in the first inning Sunday as the Daytona Cubs cruised to a 14-7 victory over the Palm Beach Cardinals in the first game of a doubleheader.

 

He's also 14-37 in his last 10 games with 15 RBIs.

[CubsWin]

Harvey is getting hot!

 

Let's just hope this is a sign of things to come and not just a 10 game hot streak (which I'm afraid that's all it is).

 

Ryan Harvey blasted a grand slam and drove in seven runs in the first inning Sunday as the Daytona Cubs cruised to a 14-7 victory over the Palm Beach Cardinals in the first game of a doubleheader.

 

He's also 14-37 in his last 10 games with 15 RBIs.

Does this ten-game stretch mean anything? No.

 

But I think the talk of trying him at pitcher is a bit premature. Clearly he has things to learn, but he's a 21-year-old playing at High-A. Are we right to expect more from a 5th pick in the draft? Absolutely. But he's still got time to figure it out. He's supposed to have the athleticism. Let's see what happens the rest of this year. I have no problem with Harvey starting next season at Daytona if he continues to struggle the rest of this year. He's got an uphill climb in front of him, but I, for one, am willing to see if he can climb it before trying him on the hill. That sounds a bit cynical this early in his career.

[Outshined_One]

Harvey is getting hot!

 

Let's just hope this is a sign of things to come and not just a 10 game hot streak (which I'm afraid that's all it is).

 

Ryan Harvey blasted a grand slam and drove in seven runs in the first inning Sunday as the Daytona Cubs cruised to a 14-7 victory over the Palm Beach Cardinals in the first game of a doubleheader.

 

He's also 14-37 in his last 10 games with 15 RBIs.

Does this ten-game stretch mean anything? No.

 

But I think the talk of trying him at pitcher is a bit premature. Clearly he has things to learn, but he's a 21-year-old playing at High-A. Are we right to expect more from a 5th pick in the draft? Absolutely. But he's still got time to figure it out. He's supposed to have the athleticism. Let's see what happens the rest of this year. I have no problem with Harvey starting next season at Daytona if he continues to struggle the rest of this year. He's got an uphill climb in front of him, but I, for one, am willing to see if he can climb it before trying him on the hill. That sounds a bit cynical this early in his career.

 

It's cynical and pessimistic, but I think with good reason. As a hitter, the only tool Harvey has showcased is his power. His ability to hit for a reasonable average and to have some semblance of plate discipline have not been made apparent. He is still young enough to make adjustments, but it is incredibly hard for a hitter to radically change his approach to the game when it comes to K/BB. I mean, cripes, Harvey's IsoD (.039) is even worse than what he put up last year (.045).

 

If he keeps this hot streak up and actually improves on his numbers from here on out, I'll be thrilled. Believe me, I want this guy to succeed and live up to his lofty billing! But at the rate things have been going, I have my doubts.

 

Converting him to pitcher in the offseason would get him a jumpstart on that front, considering he will be 22 by the end of the season. Considering he hasn't pitched with any regularity since high school, I'd imagine he's quite raw and would need plenty of time to develop. I'd rather the Cubs be able to get a faster return on their investment with Harvey rather than wait a year for a guy to become a hitter he sadly might never become.

 

Let's face it, this organization can develop pitching pretty well. But hitting? Well, yeah.

[ChiCubsFan]

Harvey is getting hot!

 

Let's just hope this is a sign of things to come and not just a 10 game hot streak (which I'm afraid that's all it is).

 

Ryan Harvey blasted a grand slam and drove in seven runs in the first inning Sunday as the Daytona Cubs cruised to a 14-7 victory over the Palm Beach Cardinals in the first game of a doubleheader.

 

He's also 14-37 in his last 10 games with 15 RBIs.

Does this ten-game stretch mean anything? No.

But I think the talk of trying him at pitcher is a bit premature. Clearly he has things to learn, but he's a 21-year-old playing at High-A. Are we right to expect more from a 5th pick in the draft? Absolutely. But he's still got time to figure it out. He's supposed to have the athleticism. Let's see what happens the rest of this year. I have no problem with Harvey starting next season at Daytona if he continues to struggle the rest of this year. He's got an uphill climb in front of him, but I, for one, am willing to see if he can climb it before trying him on the hill. That sounds a bit cynical this early in his career.

 

 

Which is why I said in my post that I'm hoping its a sign of things to come, BUT I'm afraid it's not. Obviously, Harvey has a lot of work to do. I just wanted to post some good news about Harvey for once in the past couple years.

[CubsWin]

Harvey is getting hot!

 

Let's just hope this is a sign of things to come and not just a 10 game hot streak (which I'm afraid that's all it is).

 

Ryan Harvey blasted a grand slam and drove in seven runs in the first inning Sunday as the Daytona Cubs cruised to a 14-7 victory over the Palm Beach Cardinals in the first game of a doubleheader.

 

He's also 14-37 in his last 10 games with 15 RBIs.

Does this ten-game stretch mean anything? No.

But I think the talk of trying him at pitcher is a bit premature. Clearly he has things to learn, but he's a 21-year-old playing at High-A. Are we right to expect more from a 5th pick in the draft? Absolutely. But he's still got time to figure it out. He's supposed to have the athleticism. Let's see what happens the rest of this year. I have no problem with Harvey starting next season at Daytona if he continues to struggle the rest of this year. He's got an uphill climb in front of him, but I, for one, am willing to see if he can climb it before trying him on the hill. That sounds a bit cynical this early in his career.

 

 

Which is why I said in my post that I'm hoping its a sign of things to come, BUT I'm afraid it's not. Obviously, Harvey has a lot of work to do. I just wanted to post some good news about Harvey for once in the past couple years.

I can't find any place in my post about how Harvey still has plenty of time to figure it out where it can be accurately construed that I am criticizing what you wrote. I saw that you wrote, "but I'm afraid its not". So when I wrote that the 10-game stretch didn't mean anything, I was agreeing with you. Why would you think that I was disagreeing with or criticizing your post?

 

I'm glad that Harvey has had a good stretch. I hope that he will continue with it. I think the people who are calling for him to give up trying to be a hitter are over-reacting but I understand their points. All I'm saying is he can still do this.

Edited July 17, 2006 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

It's cynical and pessimistic, but I think with good reason.

I understand what you are saying, but, by definition, if its truly with good reason, then it wouldn't be cynical and pessimistic. :P

 

As a hitter, the only tool Harvey has showcased is his power. His ability to hit for a reasonable average and to have some semblance of plate discipline have not been made apparent. He is still young enough to make adjustments, but it is incredibly hard for a hitter to radically change his approach to the game when it comes to K/BB. I mean, cripes, Harvey's IsoD (.039) is even worse than what he put up last year (.045).

 

If he keeps this hot streak up and actually improves on his numbers from here on out, I'll be thrilled. Believe me, I want this guy to succeed and live up to his lofty billing! But at the rate things have been going, I have my doubts.

I don't doubt for a second that you want him to succeed. And I agree that he has been terrible as the stats you've provided show, but he's 21 and playing in a league where most of the guys are older than that. He's got time to improve. You make the case that he needs to improve very well. Its an easy case to make, but I already agree with you on it. Where we differ is that now is the time to give up on him.

 

Converting him to pitcher in the offseason would get him a jumpstart on that front, considering he will be 22 by the end of the season. Considering he hasn't pitched with any regularity since high school, I'd imagine he's quite raw and would need plenty of time to develop. I'd rather the Cubs be able to get a faster return on their investment with Harvey rather than wait a year for a guy to become a hitter he sadly might never become.

 

Let's face it, this organization can develop pitching pretty well. But hitting? Well, yeah.

Yes, the Cubs do have a great track record developing pitchers, which is exactly why they don't need to take one of their guys who has a chance at being a good hitter and put him on the mound. The list of quality pitching prospects for the Cubs never seems to diminish very much even with trades and injuries. The Cubs might as well stick to their guns with Harvey and keep him hitting. They can bring in better instructors, give him a different coach, but don't put him on the hill. That would be a wasteful move and, at this early stage, one motivated by panic, as well.

[KaiserCesar]

Didn't Harvey also have some back trouble earlier this year? It definitely doesn't serve as an excuse for his problems at the plate, but if he's healthy he's in a position to bring his numbers up. After all, it's hard to get much worse than where he is/was earlier this year.