anyone else think this about prior and wood

[SoonerCubFan]

Two or three games of throwing 30 to 40 extra pitchers (@ 100 pitches) is exponentially worse then an extra start (@ 100 pitches).

 

I don't have the time to dig up the boxes from 2003 but there were plenty of games from late July on that the starter could have been taken out of.

 

OK, here's the scoop. From the day Prior came back from his Giles event (8/5/03), there were three instances where this is true and alll were in consecutive starts. He had 7 runs leads after 6 IP against St. Louis on back-to-back starts 8/26 and 9/1 where he ended up going 8 innings both times (116 and 131 pitches). His next start, he had a 5-1 lead against Milwaukee after 6 IP that he ended up going 7 and 129 pitches. He later had 124-133 pitch games his last 3 starts, but all were close games.

 

Wood only had two scattered such instances. He had one game where he pitched an extra inning against Milwaukee after having a 10-2 lead. He went 122 pitches then. His other game was the game against Cincy where he had a no-hitter going in the 7th with a 6-0 lead. Baker did remove him after the Pena scratch hit and 122 pitches. Every other lengthy start was in a close game.

 

Zambrano had a stretch of 8 out of 10 starts with 110+ pitches from August to mid-September, then was ineffective for his last 2 regular season and all 3 post-season starts. Of these he also had two games where he was overextended with late leads.

 

So, in a nutshell, there is a lot of validity to both arguments. These guys had to go long in most of their starts to get that 1 game Central Division title and that NLDS victory. But, there were several instances where even that bullpen could have saved these guys 30+ pitches - just enough to perhaps keep Prir from closing out Game 6 or Wood from pitching well in Game 7.

Edited June 22, 2006 by SoonerCubFan

[Jon]

113.4 pitches per game for Prior in his first full season is really, really crazy.

[impaler_240]

Sammy Sosa used a corked bat.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Two or three games of throwing 30 to 40 extra pitchers (@ 100 pitches) is exponentially worse then an extra start (@ 100 pitches).

 

I don't have the time to dig up the boxes from 2003 but there were plenty of games from late July on that the starter could have been taken out of.

 

OK, here's the scoop. From the day Prior came back from his Giles event (8/5/03), there were three instances where this is true and alll were in consecutive starts. He had 7 runs leads after 6 IP against St. Louis on back-to-back starts 8/26 and 9/1 where he ended up going 8 innings both times (116 and 131 pitches). His next start, he had a 5-1 lead against Milwaukee after 6 IP that he ended up going 7 and 129 pitches. He later had 124-133 pitch games his last 3 starts, but all were close games.

 

Wood only had two scattered such instances. He had one game where he pitched an extra inning against Milwaukee after having a 10-2 lead. He went 122 pitches then. His other game was the game against Cincy where he had a no-hitter going in the 7th with a 6-0 lead. Baker did remove him after the Pena scratch hit and 122 pitches. Every other lengthy start was in a close game.

 

Zambrano had a stretch of 8 out of 10 starts with 110+ pitches from August to mid-September, then was ineffective for his last 2 regular season and all 3 post-season starts. Of these he also had two games where he was overextended with late leads.

 

So, in a nutshell, there is a lot of validity to both arguments. These guys had to go long in most of their starts to get that 1 game Central Division title and that NLDS victory. But, there were several instances where even that bullpen could have saved these guys 30+ pitches - just enough to perhaps keep Prir from closing out Game 6 or Wood from pitching well in Game 7.

 

Thanks for looking that up for us, Sooner. If Prior and Wood had been saved a bit in blowouts, it could have made the difference (especially for Prior).

[srbin84]

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it. The only other good pitcher I can remember breaking down in his 20's is Ankiel. History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it. The only other good pitcher I can remember breaking down in his 20's is Ankiel. History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

Whether he has perfect mechanics or not is irrelevant to the point. When a pitcher tires, he compensates by altering his mechanics and that's when the injury risk magnifies.

[Mark Priors Calves]

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it. The only other good pitcher I can remember breaking down in his 20's is Ankiel. History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

If both pitchers haven't been healthy since then, it can't be considered ancient history. Its totally relevant.

[goonys evil twin]

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it.

 

That's not good enough. It wasn't hindsight when we were up in arms over the treatment as it was happening (many predicted it would happen before Baker officially signed). You can't just say, "Well, they might have ruined him, but that's in the past, let's move on." That's incompetence.

[srbin84]

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it. The only other good pitcher I can remember breaking down in his 20's is Ankiel. History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

Whether he has perfect mechanics or not is irrelevant to the point. When a pitcher tires, he compensates by altering his mechanics and that's when the injury risk magnifies.

 

If he said he wasn't tired and could keep going in all of those games and did it without showing any effects time after time, I can't see how that is their fault. Prior's never had a problem taking himself out of the game when he thinks something doesn't feel right, so I doubt he would just lie every time.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it.

 

That's not good enough. It wasn't hindsight when we were up in arms over the treatment as it was happening (many predicted it would happen before Baker officially signed). You can't just say, "Well, they might have ruined him, but that's in the past, let's move on." That's incompetence.

 

Another good point. I know I wasn't the only one upset throughout the 2003 season (and heck, that 135-pitch game for Prior in 2002). This isn't hindsight here.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it. The only other good pitcher I can remember breaking down in his 20's is Ankiel. History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

Whether he has perfect mechanics or not is irrelevant to the point. When a pitcher tires, he compensates by altering his mechanics and that's when the injury risk magnifies.

 

If he said he wasn't tired and could keep going in all of those games and did it without showing any effects time after time, I can't see how that is their fault. Prior's never had a problem taking himself out of the game when he thinks something doesn't feel right, so I doubt he would just lie every time.

 

Prior's never had a problem taking himself out of a game when he thinks something doesn't feel right? What about that 2003 season itself, when he colided with Giles and stayed in the game?

 

And I've seen countless times where Prior and Z have started changing their mechanics the later they got in the game and the more they labored. So Prior definitely showed the effects. It's Rothschild's fault for not picking up on this, or if he has, for not making the right moves.

[goonys evil twin]

If he said he wasn't tired and could keep going in all of those games and did it without showing any effects time after time, I can't see how that is their fault.

 

It's not a 22 year old kid's job to pull himself from games. He is supposed to give it his all until his coach pulls him. Like a trainer in boxing the manager, pitching coach and trainer in baseball takes full responsiblity for how they use a pitcher, especially a young one.

[E.J.]

Anyone hear anything on why Prior has been pushed back a day to Saturday? He was scheduled to pitch on Friday, but cubs.com now has him listed on Saturday with Marmol pitching tommorow.

[srbin84]

I also remember Prior pulling himself in the 2nd or 3rd inning in 2004. I can't remember what game, but Rusch came in from the pen and shut the other team down for the rest of the game. After that game, they did an MRI or something, and the doctor said it was the healthiest x-ray he had ever seen from a major league pitcher. You never know what's going on with this guy.

[NorthsideAvenger]

(yawns)

 

Talking about Wood/Prior and the abuse levels, again...(heavy sighs)

 

Can't we talk about something new like:

 

How's Corey Patterson doing in Baltimore? or

 

How are the Cubs going to acquire Adam Dunn? or

 

How big a dunce Jim Baker, and Dusty Hendry really are?

 

:roll:

 

-------------------------

[Chocolate Milk]

History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since.

[srbin84]

History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since.

 

Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I also remember Prior pulling himself in the 2nd or 3rd inning in 2004. I can't remember what game, but Rusch came in from the pen and shut the other team down for the rest of the game. After that game, they did an MRI or something, and the doctor said it was the healthiest x-ray he had ever seen from a major league pitcher. You never know what's going on with this guy.

 

First of all, he missed a start after that. Secondly, the tests showed no ligament damage. Then they ran a bone scan which showed that Prior had the equivalent of shin splints for the arm, which he pitched through for the remainder of the season.

 

I can't believe I'm actually engaging in a conversation about Prior's pain threshold.

[badger1679666666]

History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since.

 

Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him.

 

Man your significant other must have a horrendous time debating anything with you. You consistently make up all the rules and all the exceptions to how arguments and debates should go. Must be nice.

 

Everytime someeone refutes a statement you make with statistical evidence you come back with some non-falsifiable statement to continue your argument.

[srbin84]

History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since.

 

Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him.

 

Man your significant other must have a horrendous time debating anything with you. You consistently make up all the rules and all the exceptions to how arguments and debates should go. Must be nice.

 

Everytime someeone refutes a statement you make with statistical evidence you come back with some non-falsifiable statement to continue your argument.

 

I just don't understand why only the Cubs have to deal with two of their star pitchers providing an average season between them for three years in a row. I'd love to just say it's all Dusty's fault, but it just doesn't happen to other teams. If it did, I would accept it. There's definitely some bad luck involved or something.

[goonys evil twin]

I just don't understand why only the Cubs have to deal with two of their star pitchers providing an average season between them for three years in a row. I'd love to just say it's all Dusty's fault, but it just doesn't happen to other teams. If it did, I would accept it. There's definitely some bad luck involved or something.

 

I don't get why you think it's just the Cubs. The Mets have a big Three that was highly touted and they all went down. Several teams have had great pitchers torn to shreds. The Cubs stand out because in the face of more and more evidence about abuse they ignored it and kept treating these kids like 36 year olds.

 

It's got nothing to do with luck. It's poor decision making on the part of the Cubs.

[CubinNY]

History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since.

 

Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him.

 

Man your significant other must have a horrendous time debating anything with you. You consistently make up all the rules and all the exceptions to how arguments and debates should go. Must be nice.

 

Everytime someeone refutes a statement you make with statistical evidence you come back with some non-falsifiable statement to continue your argument.

 

I just don't understand why only the Cubs have to deal with two of their star pitchers providing an average season between them for three years in a row. I'd love to just say it's all Dusty's fault, but it just doesn't happen to other teams. If it did, I would accept it. There's definitely some bad luck involved or something.

 

Or on the other hand, no other team has Dusty as a manager??

 

The very paragraph you wrote is all the evidence you need. Dusty leads the world in pitcher abuse points.

[srbin84]

History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

 

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since.

 

Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him.

 

Man your significant other must have a horrendous time debating anything with you. You consistently make up all the rules and all the exceptions to how arguments and debates should go. Must be nice.

 

Everytime someeone refutes a statement you make with statistical evidence you come back with some non-falsifiable statement to continue your argument.

 

I just don't understand why only the Cubs have to deal with two of their star pitchers providing an average season between them for three years in a row. I'd love to just say it's all Dusty's fault, but it just doesn't happen to other teams. If it did, I would accept it. There's definitely some bad luck involved or something.

 

Or on the other hand, no other team has Dusty as a manager??

 

The very paragraph you wrote is all the evidence you need. Dusty leads the world in pitcher abuse points.

 

I'm not going to discount that it could be mostly his fault because in the case of Prior, I don't have an answer yet so anything is possible. This team is in such a horrible position. We really shouldn't be devoting so much time to following them. Baker is a bad manager. We have a lot of bad players. Our GM never admits to making a mistake and correcting it so problmes 1 and 2 seems like they are here to stay because our P and VP gave him an extension already. Those guys aren't going anywhere because the team is making money and that makes the corporate part happy. Add to that all of our important players are dropping like flies, be they position or pitcher, due to overwork, accident, the unexplained or all of the above.........it's just a total mess.

[cubbette14]

Sadly, I think Kerry Wood is finished. I hope I'm wrong, I'm very fond of him because of his charity work, etc.

 

Too many injuries - year after year after year.

 

 

 

I THOUGHT JAY MARIOTTI WAS MARRIED.

[3finger]

fwiw here are PAP numbers for 2003:

 

1. Vazquez 267647

2. Wood 259422

3. (He Shall Be) Livan 229597

4. Prior 220295

5. Redman 210267

6. A. Leiter 136570

7. W. Williams 135871

8. Ortiz 133137

9. (All About) Schmidt 110823

10. Pineiro 105843

11. Z 104226

 

No one but the Cubs had 2 in the top 5.

 

No one but the Cubs had 3 in the top 15.

 

Check out the gap between the top 5 and the next 6.

 

The question isn't whether Rothsbakerchild abused the Cubs' starters (they did) but whether it was worth it. Hendry built this roster to win the World Series somewhere in the 2003-2005 range with Sosa, Wood, and Prior as the cornerstones. The plan turned out to be about as successful as hydrogen-fueled airships, but I can see why the decisions were made.

 

Valentine did a similar thing with the Mets staff, but the guys he rode were old relievers. He shortened Cook and Wendell's career by maybe a year each, but Baker may have taken much more off the baseball lifespans of Wood and Prior.