Mark Prior Starting Tommorrow

[Jon]

Will Carroll proclaims old Prior dead:

 

I saw the future of the Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Mark Prior was standing on the mound, throwing in the low 90s, struggling with his control and his mechanics as the Tigers pounded him mercilessly. I saw Dusty Baker sitting, staring out at the disaster the 2006 season has become. I saw the fans, still there to see and to hope, even as the weather turned as black as the season.

 

Prior needed 40 pitches to get through the first inning. By the 20th pitch, he was showing signs of fatigue, such as his elbow dropping below his shoulder, leading to a lack of control. He was unable to find his breaking ball until the middle of the second; by then he was down six runs, only half his pitches going for strikes. He overthrew to hit 92, the flat four-seam fastball not sizzling by hitters. Prior was throwing with Greg Maddux stuff but not Greg Maddux control. It's one start, but paired with what we saw during his rehab, the Cubs have to realize now that this Prior is no longer the Prior that they drafted. He's something different now, just as Kerry Wood is no longer the Kerry Wood who scared hitters and threatened a 20-strikeout performance every time out. Prior and Wood--who should be back in the rotation by next weekend--can still be effective, even great, but not how we thought. It's up to them to find a new way to win ballgames.

Carroll is really starting to lose it when it comes to Prior. Everyone knew his pitching wasn't at 100% yet, but were his rehab starts discouraging? He put up this line in his last one:

 

AAA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 Ks, 90 pitches

 

In other words, pretty good. He looked pretty solid after the first with West Tenn and with Peoria in his last start there. He started his rehab assignment with a fastball sitting at mostly 86-88 and now he's hitting 90-91 consistently. I don't know how anyone can say he won't improve when he very clearly has been throughout the month (and yesterday with his velocity).

 

It's quite a statement to make at this stage by Carroll and, in my opinion, not really justified.

[srbin84]

Will Carroll proclaims old Prior dead:

 

I saw the future of the Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Mark Prior was standing on the mound, throwing in the low 90s, struggling with his control and his mechanics as the Tigers pounded him mercilessly. I saw Dusty Baker sitting, staring out at the disaster the 2006 season has become. I saw the fans, still there to see and to hope, even as the weather turned as black as the season.

 

Prior needed 40 pitches to get through the first inning. By the 20th pitch, he was showing signs of fatigue, such as his elbow dropping below his shoulder, leading to a lack of control. He was unable to find his breaking ball until the middle of the second; by then he was down six runs, only half his pitches going for strikes. He overthrew to hit 92, the flat four-seam fastball not sizzling by hitters. Prior was throwing with Greg Maddux stuff but not Greg Maddux control. It's one start, but paired with what we saw during his rehab, the Cubs have to realize now that this Prior is no longer the Prior that they drafted. He's something different now, just as Kerry Wood is no longer the Kerry Wood who scared hitters and threatened a 20-strikeout performance every time out. Prior and Wood--who should be back in the rotation by next weekend--can still be effective, even great, but not how we thought. It's up to them to find a new way to win ballgames.

Carroll is really starting to lose it when it comes to Prior. Everyone knew his pitching wasn't at 100% yet, but were his rehab starts discouraging? He put up this line in his last one:

 

AAA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 Ks, 90 pitches

 

In other words, pretty good. He looked pretty solid after the first with West Tenn and with Peoria in his last start there. He started his rehab assignment with a fastball sitting at mostly 86-88 and now he's hitting 90-91 consistently. I don't know how anyone can say he won't improve when he very clearly has been throughout the month (and yesterday with his velocity).

 

It's quite a statement to make at this stage by Carroll and, in my opinion, not really justified.

 

I think the man knows what he is talking about in this case. That's a nice AAA stat line but even Rich Hill went seemlessly from dominating AAA to getting killed in the big leagues to dominating in AAA again. I think there is a massive difference between a AAA lineup and a good big league one.

[Banedon]

I think the man knows what he is talking about in this case. That's a nice AAA stat line but even Rich Hill went seemlessly from dominating AAA to getting killed in the big leagues to dominating in AAA again. I think there is a massive difference between a AAA lineup and a good big league one.

 

So 3 years isn't enough to judge a decline in performance, but one start is enough to declare a pitcher to be incapable of repeating previous success?

[srbin84]

I think the man knows what he is talking about in this case. That's a nice AAA stat line but even Rich Hill went seemlessly from dominating AAA to getting killed in the big leagues to dominating in AAA again. I think there is a massive difference between a AAA lineup and a good big league one.

 

So 3 years isn't enough to judge a decline in performance, but one start is enough to declare a pitcher to be incapable of repeating previous success?

 

I don't know if Livan has ever missed a start in his career. Prior has been getting all kinds of different injuries since he came to the big leagues, and it's affecting his stuff. Same can be said for Wood.

[XZero771679666304]

I think the man knows what he is talking about in this case. That's a nice AAA stat line but even Rich Hill went seemlessly from dominating AAA to getting killed in the big leagues to dominating in AAA again. I think there is a massive difference between a AAA lineup and a good big league one.

 

So 3 years isn't enough to judge a decline in performance, but one start is enough to declare a pitcher to be incapable of repeating previous success?

 

I don't know if Livan has ever missed a start in his career. Prior has been getting all kinds of different injuries since he came to the big leagues, and it's affecting his stuff. Same can be said for Wood.

 

The fact that Livan has pitched so many innings could be affecting his stuff and contributing to his decline. THe sword cuts both ways.

 

I am not ready to jump on board with Carroll, either. I think some fans are so frustrated at this point that they can't be objective.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This thread is comical in so many ways.

[badger1679666666]

This thread is comical in so many ways.

 

q4t

[Jon]

Will Carroll proclaims old Prior dead:

 

I saw the future of the Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Mark Prior was standing on the mound, throwing in the low 90s, struggling with his control and his mechanics as the Tigers pounded him mercilessly. I saw Dusty Baker sitting, staring out at the disaster the 2006 season has become. I saw the fans, still there to see and to hope, even as the weather turned as black as the season.

 

Prior needed 40 pitches to get through the first inning. By the 20th pitch, he was showing signs of fatigue, such as his elbow dropping below his shoulder, leading to a lack of control. He was unable to find his breaking ball until the middle of the second; by then he was down six runs, only half his pitches going for strikes. He overthrew to hit 92, the flat four-seam fastball not sizzling by hitters. Prior was throwing with Greg Maddux stuff but not Greg Maddux control. It's one start, but paired with what we saw during his rehab, the Cubs have to realize now that this Prior is no longer the Prior that they drafted. He's something different now, just as Kerry Wood is no longer the Kerry Wood who scared hitters and threatened a 20-strikeout performance every time out. Prior and Wood--who should be back in the rotation by next weekend--can still be effective, even great, but not how we thought. It's up to them to find a new way to win ballgames.

Carroll is really starting to lose it when it comes to Prior. Everyone knew his pitching wasn't at 100% yet, but were his rehab starts discouraging? He put up this line in his last one:

 

AAA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 Ks, 90 pitches

 

In other words, pretty good. He looked pretty solid after the first with West Tenn and with Peoria in his last start there. He started his rehab assignment with a fastball sitting at mostly 86-88 and now he's hitting 90-91 consistently. I don't know how anyone can say he won't improve when he very clearly has been throughout the month (and yesterday with his velocity).

 

It's quite a statement to make at this stage by Carroll and, in my opinion, not really justified.

 

I think the man knows what he is talking about in this case. That's a nice AAA stat line but even Rich Hill went seemlessly from dominating AAA to getting killed in the big leagues to dominating in AAA again. I think there is a massive difference between a AAA lineup and a good big league one.

Yes, and Prior isn't 100% yet. Carroll implied that Prior wasn't going to continue improving and that his rehab starts were discouraging, which they really weren't. He's ignoring the upward trend on his velocity and really has very little to base such a statement on.

 

And since he didn't even know that Prior always does the towel drill while before warming up (something that you'd know if you ever watched him in person), I can't say he's the most credible analyst on the matter to me.

[srbin84]

Will Carroll proclaims old Prior dead:

 

I saw the future of the Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Mark Prior was standing on the mound, throwing in the low 90s, struggling with his control and his mechanics as the Tigers pounded him mercilessly. I saw Dusty Baker sitting, staring out at the disaster the 2006 season has become. I saw the fans, still there to see and to hope, even as the weather turned as black as the season.

 

Prior needed 40 pitches to get through the first inning. By the 20th pitch, he was showing signs of fatigue, such as his elbow dropping below his shoulder, leading to a lack of control. He was unable to find his breaking ball until the middle of the second; by then he was down six runs, only half his pitches going for strikes. He overthrew to hit 92, the flat four-seam fastball not sizzling by hitters. Prior was throwing with Greg Maddux stuff but not Greg Maddux control. It's one start, but paired with what we saw during his rehab, the Cubs have to realize now that this Prior is no longer the Prior that they drafted. He's something different now, just as Kerry Wood is no longer the Kerry Wood who scared hitters and threatened a 20-strikeout performance every time out. Prior and Wood--who should be back in the rotation by next weekend--can still be effective, even great, but not how we thought. It's up to them to find a new way to win ballgames.

Carroll is really starting to lose it when it comes to Prior. Everyone knew his pitching wasn't at 100% yet, but were his rehab starts discouraging? He put up this line in his last one:

 

AAA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 Ks, 90 pitches

 

In other words, pretty good. He looked pretty solid after the first with West Tenn and with Peoria in his last start there. He started his rehab assignment with a fastball sitting at mostly 86-88 and now he's hitting 90-91 consistently. I don't know how anyone can say he won't improve when he very clearly has been throughout the month (and yesterday with his velocity).

 

It's quite a statement to make at this stage by Carroll and, in my opinion, not really justified.

 

I think the man knows what he is talking about in this case. That's a nice AAA stat line but even Rich Hill went seemlessly from dominating AAA to getting killed in the big leagues to dominating in AAA again. I think there is a massive difference between a AAA lineup and a good big league one.

Yes, and Prior isn't 100% yet. Carroll implied that Prior wasn't going to continue improving and that his rehab starts were discouraging, which they really weren't. He's ignoring the upward trend on his velocity and really has very little to base such a statement on.

 

And since he didn't even know that Prior always does the towel drill while before warming up (something that you'd know if you ever watched him in person), I can't say he's the most credible analyst on the matter to me.

 

When it comes to opinions, I judge credibility on what happens after the opinion is presented. Carroll and I have been in agreement on almost everything with Prior this year and the facts keep rolling in and backing it up. Until something changes, he's right.

[Chris]

Not sure I understand the doom and gloom on Prior. Mark wasn't 100% on his rehab assignments and many felt Mark needed at least one more start in AAA before going to the Majors. You can't give up on a guy based on a few rehab assignments and a start in the Majors where Mark wasn't 100%.

[YearofDaCubs]

I think the man knows what he is talking about in this case. That's a nice AAA stat line but even Rich Hill went seemlessly from dominating AAA to getting killed in the big leagues to dominating in AAA again. I think there is a massive difference between a AAA lineup and a good big league one.

 

So 3 years isn't enough to judge a decline in performance, but one start is enough to declare a pitcher to be incapable of repeating previous success?

 

I don't know if Livan has ever missed a start in his career. Prior has been getting all kinds of different injuries since he came to the big leagues, and it's affecting his stuff. Same can be said for Wood.

 

The fact that Livan has pitched so many innings could be affecting his stuff and contributing to his decline. THe sword cuts both ways.

 

I am not ready to jump on board with Carroll, either. I think some fans are so frustrated at this point that they can't be objective.

I remember reading an article on Livan before and how he used to throw in the mid 90s and now usually sits in the mid 80s. The guy is a horse, no question but w/ the amount of abuse he has gone through I'm sure it's only a matter of time. He's had Baker and Frank Robinson as managers, it doesn't get any worse than that.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not sure what you're trying to say in your last post, but he has a 4.14 ERA over the last 6 years. Still doesn't match the 3.75 ERA you came up with.

 

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that.

 

If you read the thread, this is a perfect post in regards to Raisin. He's saying Hernandez should be judged on what he was doing long ago and not recent history, but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

I judged him on his career because you made a blanket statement about how good he is. Then, you started making different time limits that we should judge Livan (6-year splits, 3-year splits, can't count this season, etc.). It sure seems like you change your requirements for the stats as we keep going.

 

In regards to Corey, I don't judge him based on just this season but also his awful 2005, his up and down 2004, his great 2003 and his awful 2002. Show me where I have only judged him based on this season (I have judged the Cubs coaching and management based on Corey's performance this season and what Lee Elia has said).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah, I'm just saying each year should be looked at with increasing importance as it comes closer to 2006. As for 2006, we wait until it is over before judging him on that. Same goes for Ramirez and other similar players.

 

If we're doing that, lets take your 3 year split. Starting from 2003, Livan got worse every year since. I don't value innings quite as much as you, but we'll throw that in there. Also I threw in this year to show the trend. Yes, he had a good year in '03. But he's on a downhill slide.

 

2003 233.1 innings 3.20 ERA

2004 255.0 innings 3.60 ERA

2005 246.1 innings 3.98 ERA

2006 97.1 innings 5.18 ERA

 

He seems like he is in a long groove right now. I'd like to keep tracking this season before I say he is on a decline, but if he were to add another .40 to his ERA from last season, I would agree that he was.

 

His 2003-2006 stats look less impressive when you consider Livan has pitched half his games in pitcher's haven in Washington.