Clutch Hitting?

[CubColtPacer]

Just some stats this year for consideration for some Cub hitters:

SP (Scoring Position) (First Averages and OBP are the splits with nobody on)

Name Average OBP Avg/SP OBP/SP Avg/SP/2Out OBP/SP/2Out

Pierre .236 .282 .154 .233 .074 .167

Womack .297 .350 .273 .400 .167 .375

Walker .310 .380 .293 .407 .125 .263

Barrett .301 .350 .214 .340 .150 .261

Ramirez .250 .287 .230 .342 .190 .370

Jones .273 .321 .326 .348 .227 .261

Murton .328 .386 .222 .321 .217 .308

Cedeno .287 .303 .241 .300 .190 .292

 

Here are our regular starters most of the year. As you can see, the team hits pretty well with nobody on-not great, but pretty decently. With runners in scoring position, the OBP fluctuates (most likely due to the pitcher not caring as much about walks in this situation)...but the average is down among everybody but Jones. With scoring position and 2 outs, the results are incredible-only 2 people in the starting lineup hitting over .200, and only 3 OBP's over .300..and one of those is Womack, and another one is Ramirez who they are walking to get out of the inning. I know clutch hitting isn't thought much of on this board-but how are these huge drops explained? This team simply does not execute when they have a chance to in the clutch, and that causes the lack of runs that lose ballgames.

Edit: If anyone could help me clean up the lining up of the numbers for easier reading, feel free. I'm sorry-I'm having trouble making it incredibly readable.

[Guest]

This team simply does not execute when they have a chance to in the clutch, and that causes the lack of runs that lose ballgames.

The fact the the Cubs are last in the majors in overall OPS, BB/PA, HR -- well, pretty much any meaningful offensive category you can think of -- causes the lack of runs. The bad luck with runners on base simply compounds the problem and is by no means the primary issue that needs to be addressed. In fact, the Cubs were one of the best teams in baseball with runners in scoring position through the first month of the season. It just goes to show you the unstable nature of RISP numbers and why they hold little to no predictive value.

[CubColtPacer]

This team simply does not execute when they have a chance to in the clutch, and that causes the lack of runs that lose ballgames.

The fact the the Cubs are last in the majors in overall OPS, BB/PA, HR -- well, pretty much any meaningful offensive category you can think of -- causes the lack of runs. The bad luck with runners on base simply compounds the problem and is by no means the primary issue that needs to be addressed. In fact, the Cubs were one of the best teams in baseball with runners in scoring position through the first month of the season. It just goes to show you the unstable nature of RISP numbers and why they hold little to no predictive value.

 

That appears to make my point more than yours. The primary difference between April (through the 28th) and May is hitting with RISP...and what happens...so goes the record. Can anybody post the stats on BA, OBP, and OPS in April and May and RISP in April and May? I think we can probably find the one that changes the most over the two months.

[Guest]

This team simply does not execute when they have a chance to in the clutch, and that causes the lack of runs that lose ballgames.

The fact the the Cubs are last in the majors in overall OPS, BB/PA, HR -- well, pretty much any meaningful offensive category you can think of -- causes the lack of runs. The bad luck with runners on base simply compounds the problem and is by no means the primary issue that needs to be addressed. In fact, the Cubs were one of the best teams in baseball with runners in scoring position through the first month of the season. It just goes to show you the unstable nature of RISP numbers and why they hold little to no predictive value.

 

That appears to make my point more than yours. The primary difference between April (through the 28th) and May is hitting with RISP...and what happens...so goes the record. Can anybody post the stats on BA, OBP, and OPS in April and May and RISP in April and May? I think we can probably find the one that changes the most over the two months.

Here's the Cub's overall numbers from April and May. Give me a while and I can have the RISP splits over the same period.

 

teamID 	month     AVG	  OBP     SLG     OPS   XR/PA
chn	        4   0.256   0.316   0.401   0.717   0.109
chn	        5   0.248   0.296   0.359   0.655   0.095

As you can see, the Cubs' component offensive stats dropped about 15% from April to May, just about the same amount their overall run production dropped.

 

I'm not saying that RISP numbers don't have an impact on run production, they do. What I'm saying is that such numbers rarely, if ever, demonstrate much persistence and tend to fluctuate almost randomly. They'll usually even out in the end, leaving a team's overall offensive numbers as the best true measure of a team's abilty to score runs. (Such as the case so far in the Cubs' 2006 campaign, where they were really good with runners on base for the first month of the season but have been pretty awful since.) Thus, the best way to go about improving your offense isn't blaming (or trying to fix) a lack of timely hits, it's going out and getting guys who get on base an can hit with some power.

Edited June 10, 2006 by Anonymous

[CubColtPacer]

OK..here are some of the stats for May.

 

Cubs April May

 

BA .256 .248

OBP .316 .296

OPS .717 .655

 

Now..all 3 of these dropped..but did they really drop enough to turn us from a winning team to a team who won only 1 every 4 days? I haven't tracked down the difference between RISP over the 2 months..I'll post it if I can find it.

[CubColtPacer]

This team simply does not execute when they have a chance to in the clutch, and that causes the lack of runs that lose ballgames.

The fact the the Cubs are last in the majors in overall OPS, BB/PA, HR -- well, pretty much any meaningful offensive category you can think of -- causes the lack of runs. The bad luck with runners on base simply compounds the problem and is by no means the primary issue that needs to be addressed. In fact, the Cubs were one of the best teams in baseball with runners in scoring position through the first month of the season. It just goes to show you the unstable nature of RISP numbers and why they hold little to no predictive value.

 

That appears to make my point more than yours. The primary difference between April (through the 28th) and May is hitting with RISP...and what happens...so goes the record. Can anybody post the stats on BA, OBP, and OPS in April and May and RISP in April and May? I think we can probably find the one that changes the most over the two months.

Here's the Cub's overall numbers from April and May. Give me a while and I can have the RISP splits over the same period.

 

teamID 	month     AVG	  OBP     SLG     OPS   XR/PA
chn	        4   0.256   0.316   0.401   0.717   0.109
chn	        5   0.248   0.296   0.359   0.655   0.095

As you can see, the Cubs' component offensive stats dropped about 15% from April to May, just about the same amount their overall run production dropped.

 

I'm not saying that RISP numbers don't have an impact on run production, they do. What I'm saying is that such numbers rarely, if ever, demonstrate much persistence and tend to fluctuate almost randomly. They'll usually even out in the end, leaving a team's overall offensive numbers as the best true measure of a team's abilty to score runs. (Such as the case so far in the Cubs' 2006 campaign, where they were really good with runners on base for the first month of the season but have been pretty awful since.) Thus, the best way to go about improving your offense isn't blaming (or trying to fix) a lack of timely hits, it's going out and getting guys who get on base an can hit with some power.

 

Using total runs for the month, my calculations have the Cubs scoring at a clip of 4.74 runs a game in April (109 runs in 23 games). In May, that was down to 3.206 runs a game (93 runs in 29 games). So isn't that almost a 32.5 percent drop in run production? If that is so, then it seems like the drops in the other statistics would predict a drop in run output of less than half that much-so where is the rest coming from?

[Laura]

Edit: If anyone could help me clean up the lining up of the numbers for easier reading, feel free. I'm sorry-I'm having trouble making it incredibly readable.

 

You can use notepad, type up the text there in a uniform-size font, then cut and paste it here using the code tags.

 

If you quote this message, the tags below will be visible to you.

 

Cubs  April  May
BA    .256   .248
OBP   .316   .296
OPS   .717   .655 

[Guest]

Using total runs for the month, my calculations have the Cubs scoring at a clip of 4.74 runs a game in April (109 runs in 23 games). In May, that was down to 3.206 runs a game (93 runs in 29 games). So isn't that almost a 32.5 percent drop in run production? If that is so, then it seems like the drops in the other statistics would predict a drop in run output of less than half that much-so where is the rest coming from?

Again, I concede the point that RISP numbers have an impact on run production. My piont is that because RISP numbers deomonstrate almost zero persistence it's useless to try and "fix" them. The Cubs are a terrible offense no matter how you measure it, even when ignoring when their hits happen to come. Even if the Cubs' RISP numbers were to improve to their overall levels this team would still probably have the worst offense in baseball.

 

Fix the things you can predict/control first. Worry about the rest leater.

[Warpticon]

It stands to reason that if you suck in general, you will also suck in specific situations most likely.

 

Andruw Jones hit .207 last year with RISP. He lead the NL in RBI.

[ToupeeOnFire]

Basically, the Cubs are both bad and unlucky.

 

Eventually, I think their luck will change for the better and they'll just simply be bad.

 

Which I fear will be enough for Dusty to get his extension.