Buyers or Sellers: Analyzing the Market

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

With the season heading into the middle of June, teams are going to try to poise themselves for a run. How do the Cubs fit into this crazy market?

 

While many have poo-pooed on the value that the Cubs could get in a trade for impending FA's, it's appearing that this season could very much be a seller's market.

 

Granted, a lot can happen in the next six-seven weeks of baseball before the big trades start happening. Some teams who look to be buyers may move to the bubble or fall-out completely. Some teams that appear to be sellers could be buyoed by a hot streak and become sellers. But, as it breaks down, this is how I see it.

 

First I have determined 16 teams that are likely buyers. To be in this group you had to meet both of the these qualifications.

 

1. Be within five games of a playoff spot.

2. Be no more than 2 games under .500 currently.

 

The buyers: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, A's, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, and Rockies. (Interesting that the entire NL West made the list)

 

After looking over the left-overs, I found five teams that are close enough that they could be buyers. These are teams within striking distance that believe they should be better. They are: Astros, Brewers, Braves, Angels, and Indians.

 

That leaves nine sellers: Mariners, Twins, Devil Rays, Royals, Nationals, Fish, Pirates, Orioles, and, of course, the Cubs.

 

With 2/3 of the teams looking to acquire talent, the Cubs would be wise to begin dealing early. Waiting too late could be costly.

 

1.Todd Walker could be an ideal fit in Oakland as they try to recover from the loss of Ellis. Oakland hasn't been getting the offense they need, and Walker could be a boost. He's also the type of player that could attract Billy Beane's interest. The Mets, Cardinals, and Rockies might also have interest in Walker to boost their secondbase production. (Other 2b available: Castillo, Lugo Soriano(?))

 

2. Greg Maddux would look nice on a number of teams trying to add a veteran presence. With Maroth injured, he could help out the Tigers in a deal. San Diego is another team that could benefit from Maddux. However, Arizona has the best prospects and probably a need for him as well. If I were the Cubs, I'd shop him to the Diamondbacks but use the Padres, Rangers, Giants, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Tigers as leverege to get more for him. (Other SP's likely to be available: Moyer, Radke, Livan Hernandez)

 

3. Juan Pierre could get a look from teams feeling they need a spark at the top of the order. He has been horrible this season, but a contender may think he's primed to turn it around. If the Cardinals have to use Edmonds at first for an extended period, they might look at Pierre. With Eckstein in place at lead-off, they could use Pierre in the 8th spot to see if he could turn things around. The Astros also have been struggling to find the right match in CF as Tevaras has been benched recently. The Angels also could have some interest as well.

 

Other than the players above, I could see the Diamondbacks and Braves having interest in Williamson if he comes back healthy.

 

If Wood lets himself be shopped, the Yankees and maybe the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks could be itnerested. If he is willing to pitch in late relief, that list could grow exponentially.

 

Of the players on the sellers, there's not much there that's likely available unless the Marlins decide to move Willis. Soriano is likely the top bill followed by Julio Lugo.

[Banedon]

I think you definitely hit the 3 guys on the head most likely to go elsewhere.

[goonys evil twin]

I think you definitely hit the 3 guys on the head most likely to go elsewhere.

 

I don't know the name, but a reliever has to be included in the group. Williamson has to be considered a likely trading chip. While Eyre or Howry could bring back something solid if a bidding war ensues.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think you definitely hit the 3 guys on the head most likely to go elsewhere.

 

I don't know the name, but a reliever has to be included in the group. Williamson has to be considered a likely trading chip. While Eyre or Howry could bring back something solid if a bidding war ensues.

 

I didn't include Eyre or Howry because they're both under contract for next year. If a team was willing to overpay for them, trade them, but given that the Cubs will have money to burn, I prefer to trade only those guys who don't fit into next season's plans.

 

On the other hand, if Howry and Maddux could net Saltamalaccia from the Braves, I may be willing to think about it.

[HoopsCubs]

With the season heading into the middle of June, teams are going to try to poise themselves for a run. How do the Cubs fit into this crazy market?

 

While many have poo-pooed on the value that the Cubs could get in a trade for impending FA's, it's appearing that this season could very much be a seller's market.

 

Granted, a lot can happen in the next six-seven weeks of baseball before the big trades start happening. Some teams who look to be buyers may move to the bubble or fall-out completely. Some teams that appear to be sellers could be buyoed by a hot streak and become sellers. But, as it breaks down, this is how I see it.

 

First I have determined 16 teams that are likely buyers. To be in this group you had to meet both of the these qualifications.

 

1. Be within five games of a playoff spot.

2. Be no more than 2 games under .500 currently.

 

The buyers: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, A's, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, and Rockies. (Interesting that the entire NL West made the list)

 

After looking over the left-overs, I found five teams that are close enough that they could be buyers. These are teams within striking distance that believe they should be better. They are: Astros, Brewers, Braves, Angels, and Indians.

 

That leaves nine sellers: Mariners, Twins, Devil Rays, Royals, Nationals, Fish, Pirates, Orioles, and, of course, the Cubs.

 

With 2/3 of the teams looking to acquire talent, the Cubs would be wise to begin dealing early. Waiting too late could be costly.

 

1.Todd Walker could be an ideal fit in Oakland as they try to recover from the loss of Ellis. Oakland hasn't been getting the offense they need, and Walker could be a boost. He's also the type of player that could attract Billy Beane's interest. The Mets, Cardinals, and Rockies might also have interest in Walker to boost their secondbase production. (Other 2b available: Castillo, Lugo Soriano(?))

 

2. Greg Maddux would look nice on a number of teams trying to add a veteran presence. With Maroth injured, he could help out the Tigers in a deal. San Diego is another team that could benefit from Maddux. However, Arizona has the best prospects and probably a need for him as well. If I were the Cubs, I'd shop him to the Diamondbacks but use the Padres, Rangers, Giants, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Tigers as leverege to get more for him. (Other SP's likely to be available: Moyer, Radke, Livan Hernandez)

 

3. Juan Pierre could get a look from teams feeling they need a spark at the top of the order. He has been horrible this season, but a contender may think he's primed to turn it around. If the Cardinals have to use Edmonds at first for an extended period, they might look at Pierre. With Eckstein in place at lead-off, they could use Pierre in the 8th spot to see if he could turn things around. The Astros also have been struggling to find the right match in CF as Tevaras has been benched recently. The Angels also could have some interest as well.

 

Other than the players above, I could see the Diamondbacks and Braves having interest in Williamson if he comes back healthy.

 

If Wood lets himself be shopped, the Yankees and maybe the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks could be itnerested. If he is willing to pitch in late relief, that list could grow exponentially.

 

Of the players on the sellers, there's not much there that's likely available unless the Marlins decide to move Willis. Soriano is likely the top bill followed by Julio Lugo.

 

Vance,

 

Very nice analysis. The Angels are an interesting team. I think they are underachieving, and will make some moves. If Williamson comes back healthy and Nevin can get on a bit of a hot streak, I could see the Cubs moving both to Los angeles to help them in the bullpen and get some production out of 1B/DH - both have been weak areas. Stoneman has inquired about Williamson and Nevin in the past.

 

My gut tells me that Maddux is staying (and will be given a one-year extension).

 

Hoops

[Banedon]

Vance,

 

Very nice analysis. The Angels are an interesting team. I think they are underachieving, and will make some moves. If Williamson comes back healthy and Nevin can get on a bit of a hot streak, I could see the Cubs moving both to Los angeles to help them in the bullpen and get some production out of 1B/DH - both have been weak areas. Stoneman has inquired about Williamson and Nevin in the past.

 

My gut tells me that Maddux is staying (and will be given a one-year extension).

 

Hoops

 

Heya Hoops! Long time no see! Glad you stopped by. :D

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

With the season heading into the middle of June, teams are going to try to poise themselves for a run. How do the Cubs fit into this crazy market?

 

While many have poo-pooed on the value that the Cubs could get in a trade for impending FA's, it's appearing that this season could very much be a seller's market.

 

Granted, a lot can happen in the next six-seven weeks of baseball before the big trades start happening. Some teams who look to be buyers may move to the bubble or fall-out completely. Some teams that appear to be sellers could be buyoed by a hot streak and become sellers. But, as it breaks down, this is how I see it.

 

First I have determined 16 teams that are likely buyers. To be in this group you had to meet both of the these qualifications.

 

1. Be within five games of a playoff spot.

2. Be no more than 2 games under .500 currently.

 

The buyers: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, A's, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, and Rockies. (Interesting that the entire NL West made the list)

 

After looking over the left-overs, I found five teams that are close enough that they could be buyers. These are teams within striking distance that believe they should be better. They are: Astros, Brewers, Braves, Angels, and Indians.

 

That leaves nine sellers: Mariners, Twins, Devil Rays, Royals, Nationals, Fish, Pirates, Orioles, and, of course, the Cubs.

 

With 2/3 of the teams looking to acquire talent, the Cubs would be wise to begin dealing early. Waiting too late could be costly.

 

1.Todd Walker could be an ideal fit in Oakland as they try to recover from the loss of Ellis. Oakland hasn't been getting the offense they need, and Walker could be a boost. He's also the type of player that could attract Billy Beane's interest. The Mets, Cardinals, and Rockies might also have interest in Walker to boost their secondbase production. (Other 2b available: Castillo, Lugo Soriano(?))

 

2. Greg Maddux would look nice on a number of teams trying to add a veteran presence. With Maroth injured, he could help out the Tigers in a deal. San Diego is another team that could benefit from Maddux. However, Arizona has the best prospects and probably a need for him as well. If I were the Cubs, I'd shop him to the Diamondbacks but use the Padres, Rangers, Giants, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Tigers as leverege to get more for him. (Other SP's likely to be available: Moyer, Radke, Livan Hernandez)

 

3. Juan Pierre could get a look from teams feeling they need a spark at the top of the order. He has been horrible this season, but a contender may think he's primed to turn it around. If the Cardinals have to use Edmonds at first for an extended period, they might look at Pierre. With Eckstein in place at lead-off, they could use Pierre in the 8th spot to see if he could turn things around. The Astros also have been struggling to find the right match in CF as Tevaras has been benched recently. The Angels also could have some interest as well.

 

Other than the players above, I could see the Diamondbacks and Braves having interest in Williamson if he comes back healthy.

 

If Wood lets himself be shopped, the Yankees and maybe the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks could be itnerested. If he is willing to pitch in late relief, that list could grow exponentially.

 

Of the players on the sellers, there's not much there that's likely available unless the Marlins decide to move Willis. Soriano is likely the top bill followed by Julio Lugo.

 

Vance,

 

Very nice analysis. The Angels are an interesting team. I think they are underachieving, and will make some moves. If Williamson comes back healthy and Nevin can get on a bit of a hot streak, I could see the Cubs moving both to Los angeles to help them in the bullpen and get some production out of 1B/DH - both have been weak areas. Stoneman has inquired about Williamson and Nevin in the past.

 

My gut tells me that Maddux is staying (and will be given a one-year extension).

 

Hoops

 

Nice to see you back around, Hoops.

 

From your perspective, do you think Hendry has the balls to pull off an appropriate fire sale?

[CuseCubFan69]

IMO Hendry will think the Cubs have a shot until it's too late to make a good deal. He may be thinking since Pujols is out and Lee is coming back all they need is X to make them contenders. He's done this for the last 2 years and I don't see him changing his MO.

[Laura]

Good to see you, Hoops! :D

[davearm]

I'd have the Rangers high on the list for both Wood and Walker. Conventional wisdom is that Texas is a place Wood might approve a trade, and the Rangers have had interest in Walker in the past. I'd love to see both guys go there in exchange for Ian Kinsler and one of their pitching prospects (Diamond/Danks/Volquez/Hurley).

 

I don't see the Cubs moving Maddux to a team without his blessing. That eliminates all but SD, ARI, LAD, and ATL. Andre Ethier on LAD has my eye, or of course any of the ARI kids.

[CubfaninCA]

Good post vance. Didn't realize Ellis was out in Oakland. That gives the Cubs another option although i'd like to see walker & rusch packaged to the mets.

 

Hoops,

 

the talk in anaheim is that they want a big time difference maker and are willing to deal ervan santana & some of their stud prospects. if ramirez is going anywhere, i hope it's to anaheim.

[CubfaninCA]

IMO Hendry will think the Cubs have a shot until it's too late to make a good deal. He may be thinking since Pujols is out and Lee is coming back all they need is X to make them contenders. He's done this for the last 2 years and I don't see him changing his MO.

 

I'll give you last year, but they were in it in 2004 and he made a really good trade. Actually, Lawton was the best pickup in 2005. Shows how little was traded in 05.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd have the Rangers high on the list for both Wood and Walker. Conventional wisdom is that Texas is a place Wood might approve a trade, and the Rangers have had interest in Walker in the past. I'd love to see both guys go there in exchange for Ian Kinsler and one of their pitching prospects (Diamond/Danks/Volquez/Hurley).

 

I don't see the Cubs moving Maddux to a team without his blessing. That eliminates all but SD, ARI, LAD, and ATL. Andre Ethier on LAD has my eye, or of course any of the ARI kids.

 

Kinsler is doing ok in Texas, so I don't see them being in the market for Walker. They also have a number of guys to fill in periodically at second (Jimenez, Hairston, DeRosa) and Derosa has been hitting too, so I can't see them making a move at second, and if they did, they won't part with Ian. Wood and Walker couldn't get Kinsler alone much less Kinsler and Diamond or Danks.

 

I wouldn't mind picking up Volquez or Hurley, but I really don't see Daniels dealing either. The Rangers cou;d have interest in Wood, but likely offer us someone like Laynce Nix in exchange. I'd be tempted to trade Wood for John Mayberry Jr. He's not a great prospect, but he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man for awhile either. I'd take a look at Teagarden as well.

[CubfaninCA]

what could maddux & williamson net from the dodgers??

gagne's & their rotation is shaky.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

what could maddux & williamson net from the dodgers??

gagne's & their rotation is shaky.

 

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier.

[CubfaninCA]

what could maddux & williamson net from the dodgers??

gagne's & their rotation is shaky.

 

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier.

 

hmmm guzman.

 

they're set w/ furcal @ SS and LaRoche is ranked ahead of guzman by Baseball America. He may be expendable. perhaps howry & maddux could get that done.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

what could maddux & williamson net from the dodgers??

gagne's & their rotation is shaky.

 

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier.

 

hmmm guzman.

 

they're set w/ furcal @ SS and LaRoche is ranked ahead of guzman by Baseball America. He may be expendable. perhaps howry & maddux could get that done.

 

I wouldn't do Howry for Guzman even if Maddux wasn't included. To me, Howry and Eyre are extremely valuable as they are signed beyon this season.

 

Other than Maddux, what pitchers are likely to be available? Livian Hernandez...maybe. If my assessment of the buyers and sellers is correct, the remaining teams don't really have vets approaching FA that would interest a lot of teams. For that reason, the Cubs have a chance to get a nice player from a team that needs another arm.

 

While there should be some interest in Howry and Eyre, I'd hold them up for a very top prospect. They have proven they can get valuable outs late in the game. They are under team-control for 2007-2008 and the Cubs are under no financial constraints. If the Dodgers want Maddux AND Howry, the cost should be nothing less than Billingsly unless they want to give up Guzman and Blake DeWitt.

[frostwyrm]

IMO Hendry will think the Cubs have a shot until it's too late to make a good deal. He may be thinking since Pujols is out and Lee is coming back all they need is X to make them contenders. He's done this for the last 2 years and I don't see him changing his MO.

That's why we have to hope for more losing ASAP. At this point winning is counter-productive.

[CubfaninCA]

what could maddux & williamson net from the dodgers??

gagne's & their rotation is shaky.

 

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier.

 

hmmm guzman.

 

they're set w/ furcal @ SS and LaRoche is ranked ahead of guzman by Baseball America. He may be expendable. perhaps howry & maddux could get that done.

 

I wouldn't do Howry for Guzman even if Maddux wasn't included. To me, Howry and Eyre are extremely valuable as they are signed beyon this season.

 

Other than Maddux, what pitchers are likely to be available? Livian Hernandez...maybe. If my assessment of the buyers and sellers is correct, the remaining teams don't really have vets approaching FA that would interest a lot of teams. For that reason, the Cubs have a chance to get a nice player from a team that needs another arm.

 

While there should be some interest in Howry and Eyre, I'd hold them up for a very top prospect. They have proven they can get valuable outs late in the game. They are under team-control for 2007-2008 and the Cubs are under no financial constraints. If the Dodgers want Maddux AND Howry, the cost should be nothing less than Billingsly unless they want to give up Guzman and Blake DeWitt.

 

true, maddux may be the best available. no one likes to deal pitching.

 

i'd hate to see howry or eyre go and agree w/ your assessment, but the dodgers have been pretty reluctant to deal off prospects. perhaps things have changed some w/ coletti in charge now.

[CubfaninCA]

maddux, williamson & hill for guzman..

 

maddux is a rental and not good any more. williamson gives LA pen depth. hill gives LA a starting option next year. sele, tomko and perez as starters is kinda of a joke. of course, LA's probably not a good place for hill either. the media will jump all over him if he struggles.

 

cubs can put guzman @ SS and put cedeno @ 2b or look to deal cedeno elsewhere.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

maddux, williamson & hill for guzman..

 

maddux is a rental and not good any more. williamson gives LA pen depth. hill gives LA a starting option next year. sele, tomko and perez as starters is kinda of a joke. of course, LA's probably not a good place for hill either. the media will jump all over him if he struggles.

 

cubs can put guzman @ SS and put cedeno @ 2b or look to deal cedeno elsewhere.

 

That sure is a lot to give up for someone who has not done anything in the majors and really hasn't been overwhelmingly impressive in the minors yet, isn't it? He's put up good numbers, but a package of Maddux, Williamson, and Hill better bring more than just Joel Guzman.

[CubfaninCA]

maddux, williamson & hill for guzman..

 

maddux is a rental and not good any more. williamson gives LA pen depth. hill gives LA a starting option next year. sele, tomko and perez as starters is kinda of a joke. of course, LA's probably not a good place for hill either. the media will jump all over him if he struggles.

 

cubs can put guzman @ SS and put cedeno @ 2b or look to deal cedeno elsewhere.

 

That sure is a lot to give up for someone who has not done anything in the majors and really hasn't been overwhelmingly impressive in the minors yet, isn't it? He's put up good numbers, but a package of Maddux, Williamson, and Hill better bring more than just Joel Guzman.

 

jmo but maddux & williamson aren't that valuable. maddux may retire after this season, and his era is near 5. williamson is injury prone. Hill isn't near the prospect that Guzman is.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

what could maddux & williamson net from the dodgers??

gagne's & their rotation is shaky.

 

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier.

 

hmmm guzman.

 

they're set w/ furcal @ SS and LaRoche is ranked ahead of guzman by Baseball America. He may be expendable. perhaps howry & maddux could get that done.

 

I wouldn't do Howry for Guzman even if Maddux wasn't included. To me, Howry and Eyre are extremely valuable as they are signed beyon this season.

 

Other than Maddux, what pitchers are likely to be available? Livian Hernandez...maybe. If my assessment of the buyers and sellers is correct, the remaining teams don't really have vets approaching FA that would interest a lot of teams. For that reason, the Cubs have a chance to get a nice player from a team that needs another arm.

 

While there should be some interest in Howry and Eyre, I'd hold them up for a very top prospect. They have proven they can get valuable outs late in the game. They are under team-control for 2007-2008 and the Cubs are under no financial constraints. If the Dodgers want Maddux AND Howry, the cost should be nothing less than Billingsly unless they want to give up Guzman and Blake DeWitt.

 

true, maddux may be the best available. no one likes to deal pitching.

 

i'd hate to see howry or eyre go and agree w/ your assessment, but the dodgers have been pretty reluctant to deal off prospects. perhaps things have changed some w/ coletti in charge now.

 

If they don't want to make a deal, deal with someone else. Since there's no pressure or need to deal Howry or Eyre, don't deal them unless you get the guy you really want.

 

If the Dodgers aren't willing to part with a good prospect for Maddux and/or Williamson, call up the Diamondbacks, Giants, or Padres and deal him there. Let Coletti know if he doesn't pony up to the table the other teams in the division certainly might.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

maddux, williamson & hill for guzman..

 

maddux is a rental and not good any more. williamson gives LA pen depth. hill gives LA a starting option next year. sele, tomko and perez as starters is kinda of a joke. of course, LA's probably not a good place for hill either. the media will jump all over him if he struggles.

 

cubs can put guzman @ SS and put cedeno @ 2b or look to deal cedeno elsewhere.

 

That sure is a lot to give up for someone who has not done anything in the majors and really hasn't been overwhelmingly impressive in the minors yet, isn't it? He's put up good numbers, but a package of Maddux, Williamson, and Hill better bring more than just Joel Guzman.

 

jmo but maddux & williamson aren't that valuable. maddux may retire after this season, and his era is near 5. williamson is injury prone. Hill isn't near the prospect that Guzman is.

 

They may not be as valuable as they once were, but when a team is looking for a starter to get them through the race for a play-off spot, their value could rise significantly, especially if there are few other options. Take a look at Arizona's rotation right now. Do you think they'd be confident in going down the stretch with that group?

 

Look at the Padres. Other teams as well could use a solid starter. Often teams will make unwise decisions with their prospects when the season is on the line and there are few options available. Based on my guesses, there could only be 9 teams selling. If you assume the sellers are only likely to sell off impending FA, then there isn't much left to be bought off of Seattle, Florida, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, KC, Tampa, and Washington.

 

If I were a team wanting a starter, and Dontrelle isn't on the table, I think Maddux would be the second or third target after maybe Livian Hernandez. It's the lack of options that will drive up the value. I think if Maddux is shopped, he could bring back one B+ prospect or a package of a B- and a C prospect, especially if he is being shopped around the NL West as all of those teams could use at least one more starter.

[Rob]

First off, am I the only one that doesn't get the hype for Joel Guzman? As a SS, he was a good prospect... but now that he's moved to LF, he's a B or a B+ at best as a prospect.

 

At any rate, I fully expect to see the following players shipped off.

 

Pierre

Williamson

Walker

 

While none of those three is lighting the world on fire right now, they'll all fetch a decent value in a trade. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Williamson to the Braves for a B level prospect fairly soon if DLee's arrival doesn't immediately help the teams W-L record.

 

These guys will probably be shopped.

 

Maddux

Nevin

Wood

Mabry

 

These guys are going to be harder to unload. Maddux might not want to leave (I know, no NTC... but as a PR thing it'd be a bad idea to cut him loose). Nevin will be too expensive to fetch much, so we might be stuck with him. Wood can't be traded if he's on the DL, and even if he's not, Hendry might hold on to him just to see if he can sign him in the offseason. As for Mabry, he could get us a B- prospect if he starts hitting like he can, and not like a sabateur for the Cardinals.

 

I'm sure pretty much everybody on the club is available, but those are the big seven, as I see it.