Just How Valuable, if at all, is PECOTA??

[moorecg]

From my understanding here are PECOTA's predicitons for the last two years.

 

 

preseason 2004

NL Central RawW% SOS AdjW% AdjW AdjL AdjRS AdjRA

Houston .568 .489 .578 93.7 68.3 808 680

Chicago .562 .492 .569 92.2 69.8 735 627

St. Louis .543 .494 .549 89.0 73.0 769 681

Cincinnati .469 .498 .471 76.4 85.6 760 804

Milwaukee .420 .505 .414 67.1 94.9 691 827

Pittsburgh .420 .506 .414 67.1 94.9 656 785

 

preseason 2005

W L PCT RS RA

Cardinals 92 70 .569 818 708

Cubs 89 73 .550 773 696

Astros 80 82 .494 724 734

Reds 76 86 .472 789 836

Brewers 73 89 .453 707 781

Pirates 72 90 .444 700 788

 

 

By my understanding, the only thing its really "accuratly" predicted in the last two years was that Pittsuburgh would finish last and St. Louis would finish First, last year...(Gee...who woulda thunk it?))

(they may have got Cincy right one of the years...I can't remember)

 

And I don't think anyone thinks all 6 teams will finish within 8 games of each other like predicted this year. So someone please tell me...why do we put ANY weight into this?

[jjgman21]

From my understanding here are PECOTA's predicitons for the last two years.

 

 

preseason 2004

NL Central RawW% SOS AdjW% AdjW AdjL AdjRS AdjRA

Houston .568 .489 .578 93.7 68.3 808 680

Chicago .562 .492 .569 92.2 69.8 735 627

St. Louis .543 .494 .549 89.0 73.0 769 681

Cincinnati .469 .498 .471 76.4 85.6 760 804

Milwaukee .420 .505 .414 67.1 94.9 691 827

Pittsburgh .420 .506 .414 67.1 94.9 656 785

 

preseason 2005

W L PCT RS RA

Cardinals 92 70 .569 818 708

Cubs 89 73 .550 773 696

Astros 80 82 .494 724 734

Reds 76 86 .472 789 836

Brewers 73 89 .453 707 781

Pirates 72 90 .444 700 788

 

 

By my understanding, the only thing its really "accuratly" predicted in the last two years was that Pittsuburgh would finish last and St. Louis would finish First, last year...(Gee...who woulda thunk it?))

(they may have got Cincy right one of the years...I can't remember)

 

And I don't think anyone thinks all 6 teams will finish within 8 games of each other like predicted this year. So someone please tell me...why do we put ANY weight into this?

 

hmmm. I thought it accurately predicted the Cards to run away in 04. anyone remember which system that was?

[moorecg]

Just for clarification...I got my PECOTA #s from the thread below talking about this years projections...I assume, but do not know, that the earlier posters data was correct.

[soccer10k]

These projections are helpful in figuring out about where a team will finish. Generally a team that is predicted to finish first isn't going to finish last in their division. But like you said, there is no chance that all of the teams will finish within 8 games of each other. The Reds are just too horrible.

 

I saw one set of predictions where no team in the NL won more than 90 games which hasn't happened ever in a full season since they expanded to two divisions per league in 1969.

[Rob]

Those are the average amount of wins for each team running the simulations, but the playoff odds report based off PECOTA states...

 

"Average wins by position in NL Central: 100.5 91.5 85.2 79.3 73.0 64.0"

 

The standings you were looking at are really only used for figuring out which team belongs where.

[moorecg]

Those are the average amount of wins for each team running the simulations, but the playoff odds report based off PECOTA states...

 

"Average wins by position in NL Central: 100.5 91.5 85.2 79.3 73.0 64.0"

 

The standings you were looking at are really only used for figuring out which team belongs where.

 

So read together, it predicts the Cubs would finish in 2nd, with 92ish wins...8 games back?

 

I'd buy it...although I don't see this Cards team winning 100 games.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

PECOTA is a tool to judge how a team looks going in to the season however things change (injuries, acquisitions, etc). Also there will be a certain amount of statistical variation (including luck) from players and teams from year to year.

 

Basically what PECOTA is telling us is the Reds aren't as bad and the Cards are probably worse than most people think. Don't read too much in to the actual win\loss totals but it's certainly a guideline.