As opening day approaches, my pessimism grows

[wastra]

I know that part of this is just being gun shy from year after year of the worst case scenario coming true, but the more I study this roster and the more I think about it, the less hope I have that we'll see the post season this year.

 

I know spring training isn't the greatest predictor, but Pierre looks lost at the plate. He just looks slow with the bat. That's usually not something I see in ST...I see timing issues where guys keep guessing wrong on pitches, or swining at bad ones, but Pierre just looks slow. I can only hope he's been battling the flu or something.

 

I'm pretty much sold on Murton- the guy has been awesome at every level he's been at.

 

But then there's shortstop. I'm real worried there. Not only might SCedeno struggle, but if he struggles the first 2 weeks, will it be the Neifi show again all year? And Second base- Walker on the bench? Gimme a break. I understand the need for strong defense, but our offense might wind up being dismal with our 3rd or 4th best hitter seeing only 1/3rd of the at bats at 2nd. And I'm going to go ahead and write Jones off as Burnitz II (without the solid arm).

 

That brings me to another point...our outfield might track down a good number of balls this year, but there's not a good arm in the group.

 

And with Prior and Wood out, and Maddux and Rusch in (why can't THEY be hurt instead?), I see us with a real real tough start to the season.

 

 

I'm looking for hope here. What am I missing? Where is this $100 million payroll going to pay off for us? In the field, aside from 1st and 3rd (and catcher), are we fielding any really good players at any position?

[anemic offense]

I know that part of this is just being gun shy from year after year of the worst case scenario coming true, but the more I study this roster and the more I think about it, the less hope I have that we'll see the post season this year.

 

I know spring training isn't the greatest predictor, but Pierre looks lost at the plate. He just looks slow with the bat. That's usually not something I see in ST...I see timing issues where guys keep guessing wrong on pitches, or swining at bad ones, but Pierre just looks slow. I can only hope he's been battling the flu or something.

 

I'm pretty much sold on Murton- the guy has been awesome at every level he's been at.

 

But then there's shortstop. I'm real worried there. Not only might SCedeno struggle, but if he struggles the first 2 weeks, will it be the Neifi show again all year? And Second base- Walker on the bench? Gimme a break. I understand the need for strong defense, but our offense might wind up being dismal with our 3rd or 4th best hitter seeing only 1/3rd of the at bats at 2nd. And I'm going to go ahead and write Jones off as Burnitz II (without the solid arm).

 

That brings me to another point...our outfield might track down a good number of balls this year, but there's not a good arm in the group.

 

And with Prior and Wood out, and Maddux and Rusch in (why can't THEY be hurt instead?), I see us with a real real tough start to the season.

 

 

I'm looking for hope here. What am I missing? Where is this $100 million payroll going to pay off for us? In the field, aside from 1st and 3rd (and catcher), are we fielding any really good players at any position?

 

 

IMO, the most encouraging performances of the spring (outside of Murton), has been the performances of both Howry and Eyre. If these two guys both perform at above average levels (assuming Dempster doesn't fall on his face) this team will surprise a lot of people.

 

For the last couple years I thought our bullpun was our weakest link. Yeah, a lot of the other areas sucked too, but at least I felt confident in a few of our starters, as well as a handful of offensive players. In contrast, EVERY time Dusty made a move to the pen I felt like we were going to get hammered, and unfortunately, most of the time they did. They could pitch well when the game was out of reach, but when it was close they were at their worst (Dempster withstanding). If Eyre and Howry can help reverse those fortunes, it will be worth several games.

 

In the end its hard to draw a whole lot from this spring training. Aram mashed, Lee did fairly well in the WBC before he twinged his shoulder, Murton impressed, Jones hasn't stunk, Howry and Eyre pitched great, as did Marshall. On the flipside, Pierre has struggled, Cedeno hasn't played as well as we had hoped, Neifi has played better than we had hoped, Baker's still considering Neifi for the 2nd base job, Williams has been lit up, and Prior and Wood are out again (which I come to expect anymore).

 

So what does this all mean? I don't think anybody has the slightest idea.

[goonys evil twin]

Yeah, a lot of the other areas sucked too, but at least I felt confident in a few of our starters, as well as a handful of offensive players. In contrast, EVERY time Dusty made a move to the pen I felt like we were going to get hammered, and unfortunately, most of the time they did. They could pitch well when the game was out of reach, but when it was close they were at their worst (Dempster withstanding). If Eyre and Howry can help reverse those fortunes, it will be worth several games.

 

How we "feel" the players performed is rarely an accurate assessment of how they actually did perform. This team lost games because they didn't score runs, they lost more when the starting pitching fell apart.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Took me a minute, thought you were referencing your pessimism for the A's opening day.

[Jon]

I'm not terribly optimistic about the offense, but I think the bullpen should be pretty solid and the starting staff has the potential to be really good despite the setbacks that have already occured. If Marshall can handle his spot in the rotation and Guzman pitches well in AAA, I don't think it's out of the question that Rusch could be yanked from the rotation after not too long. We could also possibly have a good trading chip in Wade Miller at the trade deadline if he comes back around and the young pitching makes him expendable. And considering his salary, he could be pretty attractive to a team in the race in need of an arm.

 

It all comes down to the pitching with this team. If Rusch is out of the rotation by mid-May, that should be a pretty good sign.

[A New Era]

There's plenty your missing, but I'm not going to waste my time trying to "cheer up" a pessimistic cubs fan. I'll just say. . .

 

Don't worry, your pessimism will go away once they start winning more than they are loosing. And that will be right out of the gate, and all the way to the post season. :D

[bc2k]

Coming into ST I was optimistic because I liked the lineup balance Hendry assembled. Pierre was a great acquisition and we still have two great hitters in Lee and Ramirez.

 

Look at it this way: We are guaranteed to be better in the top 2 spots of the order this year, which is good on its own, but Lee and Ramirez will also be more productive because of the improved OBP out of the first 2 spots. Ramirez missed part of last year, and he should have a better year by default, too.

 

Our bullpen is LIGHTS OUT. Huge asset right there.

 

And something I've become aware of watching this team throughout ST is their new style of play. Dusty has been taking advantage of this team's speed--another asset we didn't have last year. Our defense is better, too. We're improved in many ways, and I think we'll have a better record than last year.

[soccer10k]

IMO, the most encouraging performances of the spring (outside of Murton), has been the performances of both Howry and Eyre. If these two guys both perform at above average levels (assuming Dempster doesn't fall on his face) this team will surprise a lot of people.

 

For the last couple years I thought our bullpun was our weakest link. Yeah, a lot of the other areas sucked too, but at least I felt confident in a few of our starters, as well as a handful of offensive players. In contrast, EVERY time Dusty made a move to the pen I felt like we were going to get hammered, and unfortunately, most of the time they did. They could pitch well when the game was out of reach, but when it was close they were at their worst (Dempster withstanding). If Eyre and Howry can help reverse those fortunes, it will be worth several games.

 

In the end its hard to draw a whole lot from this spring training. Aram mashed, Lee did fairly well in the WBC before he twinged his shoulder, Murton impressed, Jones hasn't stunk, Howry and Eyre pitched great, as did Marshall. On the flipside, Pierre has struggled, Cedeno hasn't played as well as we had hoped, Neifi has played better than we had hoped, Baker's still considering Neifi for the 2nd base job, Williams has been lit up, and Prior and Wood are out again (which I come to expect anymore).

 

So what does this all mean? I don't think anybody has the slightest idea.

 

I can't express how happy I was when the Cubs signed both Eyre and Howry. We have always had bullpen problems. And I think that is what is being overlooked by many Cubs fans. I don't think our lineup is significantly better or worse than in previous years and we have the same injured starters. I guarantee that if we had a couple decent relievers we would have made the playoffs in 2004.

Obviously injuries are going to happen, but I think the Cubs have a decent chance to make the postseason this year. On the other hand, there is also a good chance of a repeat performance of last season if the right things go wrong. We'll see. I'm hoping for the postseason.

[anemic offense]

Coming into ST I was optimistic because I liked the lineup balance Hendry assembled. Pierre was a great acquisition and we still have two great hitters in Lee and Ramirez.

 

Look at it this way: We are guaranteed to be better in the top 2 spots of the order this year, which is good on its own, but Lee and Ramirez will also be more productive because of the improved OBP out of the first 2 spots. Ramirez missed part of last year, and he should have a better year by default, too.

 

Our bullpen is LIGHTS OUT. Huge asset right there.

 

And something I've become aware of watching this team throughout ST is their new style of play. Dusty has been taking advantage of this team's speed--another asset we didn't have last year. Our defense is better, too. We're improved in many ways, and I think we'll have a better record than last year.

 

I don't know if I'd go THAT far. Although I am very optimistic given their performance, the bullpen might be the biggest crapshoot in all of sports. It seems there are maybe 10 guys who are consistently great every year, and another 20-30 that are consistently good. The rest either usually suck, or are extremely inconsistent from one year to the next.

 

Case in point, I thought the Remy and LaTroy signings were great deals (especially LT). But when you take a reliever out of his comfort zone, or snatch him up after a career year, he's prone to decline, and sometimes tremendously. Unfortunatley, neither worked out all that well, yet the Cubs were saddled for several years of their contracts. Is that to say that's going to Eyre and Howry? I hope not. But it does lead me to be "cautiously optimistic" in gauging their coming year's performances. The bullpen is just that unpredictable (especially when building via FA).

[anemic offense]

Yeah, a lot of the other areas sucked too, but at least I felt confident in a few of our starters, as well as a handful of offensive players. In contrast, EVERY time Dusty made a move to the pen I felt like we were going to get hammered, and unfortunately, most of the time they did. They could pitch well when the game was out of reach, but when it was close they were at their worst (Dempster withstanding). If Eyre and Howry can help reverse those fortunes, it will be worth several games.

 

How we "feel" the players performed is rarely an accurate assessment of how they actually did perform. This team lost games because they didn't score runs, they lost more when the starting pitching fell apart.

 

I kinda though that was rather obvious.

 

Alright, we all know teams lose games because the oposition scores more than you, or you don't score enough, whatever way you want to look at it. But yearly stats, fail to break down the performances in many critical situations. As with most here, I watched enough games to know this team ABSOLUTELY STUNK at pitching in close games. Sure, the offense should shoulder its share of the blame, but when someone other than Dempster came in we rarely had a chance.

 

One just can't underscore the importance of the pen. It's not going to make this team great by itself, but if it's even a little above average (which I hope it will be) I think one could conservatively say it could give a five game boost (I think it'd be more than that, but I can't prove it with stats, and I know you'll automatically discredit it anyway). Then if the offense can improve some as well, this team has a chance. How good of a one may depend on our SP health, but it should have one nonetheless.

[frostwyrm]

The impact of middle relief is vastly overrated by some here and the concept of opportunity cost is largely ignored. Pitching is about 35% of the game and relief pitching overall is about 30% of that 35%. You don't win a pennant on the strength of middle relief. $3 million middle relievers are expensive toys that cause you to have trash like Jacque Jones in right field for 3 years. Also, Eyre and Howry have never been anything special until last year, and they're into their 30's now.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

We're not going to lose b/c of our "improved" offense or the bullpen. The game won't even get to that point. We'll have spotty run scoring abilities (lack of walks throughout the lineup) and a crappy rotation.

 

Marshall will get lit up some games and pitch great in others. That's the nature of rookie pitchers (Zach Duke is a freak). Rusch is...Rusch. Maddux isn't in his prime. Z is a beast.

 

That's great, but we'd better hope the offense clicks on Marshall and Rusch's good days.