Interesting Cubs Payroll Analysis

[cubfanfromoz]

Browsing 1060west this afternoon and came across an interesting take on the Cubs payroll over the last eight years.

 

http://1060west.blogspot.com/2006/02/spending-what-it-takes-to-win.html

 

The article analyzes average payroll of wildcard, division, league and World Series winners and compares them to what theTrib has allowed in the same timeframe.

 

"the cubs have only once in the last seven seasons allocated payroll of a sufficient magnitude to reasonably eliminate payroll as an impediment to winning the world series. never have they spent enough on player payroll to meet that of the average league winner in that span."

 

Further,as many have pointed out recently, the Cubs don't spend money very well.

 

"the cubs, without some fundamental management change, actually should expect to have to spend above the normalized payroll target of their desired level of playoff performance in order to compensate for an efficiency in utilizing payroll that is 15% less effective than the average over the last eight seasons.'

 

As a relative newcomer to baseball, having grown up playing with a flat bat, I really enjoy what I learn here. I'd be interested in your thoughts on this.

[series65cubsfan]

Browsing 1060west this afternoon and came across an interesting take on the Cubs payroll over the last eight years.

 

http://1060west.blogspot.com/2006/02/spending-what-it-takes-to-win.html

 

The article analyzes average payroll of wildcard, division, league and World Series winners and compares them to what theTrib has allowed in the same timeframe.

 

"the cubs have only once in the last seven seasons allocated payroll of a sufficient magnitude to reasonably eliminate payroll as an impediment to winning the world series. never have they spent enough on player payroll to meet that of the average league winner in that span."

 

Further,as many have pointed out recently, the Cubs don't spend money very well.

 

"the cubs, without some fundamental management change, actually should expect to have to spend above the normalized payroll target of their desired level of playoff performance in order to compensate for an efficiency in utilizing payroll that is 15% less effective than the average over the last eight seasons.'

 

As a relative newcomer to baseball, having grown up playing with a flat bat, I really enjoy what I learn here. I'd be interested in your thoughts on this.

 

Wow, that seems to me to be a cricket player. Are you? In Iowa?? BTW, welcome to the board.

[cubfanfromoz]

Yes to both - an australian cricket player lost in Iowa ! Thanks for the welcome.

[goonys evil twin]

Those are inaccurate payroll numbers.

 

The Cubs have spent more than 2 of the past 3 world series winners, they've spent more than several division winners. The Red Sox and Yankees, two enormous outliers, completely throw off the curve. The Cubs are in a class with the *** LA/SoCal teams, Philly, NYMets, Seattle, SanFran, Atlanta, *** and most of those teams have enjoyed greater success than the Cubs because their management has been smarter with the money.

 

Blaming ownership/money is just a weak defense of the inept management group from Andy and Jim, through Dusty and the coaches and all the scouts and instructors. The Cubs have a baseball problem, not a money problem.

 

 

 

***Several of those teams also play in taxpayer funded cash cows that the Cubs do not have the luxury of using as a source of revenue. The Cubs on the other hand have diverted their own funds to fix the stadium (which they and other teams should have to do), and they've met with enormous resistance from an unprecedented amount of government oversight.

Edited February 11, 2006 by goony's evil twin

[TXCubsFan]

Yes to both - an australian cricket player lost in Iowa ! Thanks for the welcome.

 

From where in Australia?

[cubfanfromoz]

I grew up in Sydney and met this girl from illinois ...... you can guess the rest.

[SouthSideRyan]

I grew up in Sydney and met this girl from illinois ...... you can guess the rest.

 

Restraining order forcing you to Iowa? :)

 

WELCOME TO THE FORUM!

[CarolinaCubFan]

I grew up in Sydney and met this girl from illinois ...... you can guess the rest.

 

Restraining order forcing you to Iowa? :)

 

WELCOME TO THE FORUM!

 

:lol:

[TXCubsFan]

I grew up in Sydney and met this girl from illinois ...... you can guess the rest.

 

I met my wife, who is from Melbourne, on a two-week bus trip in Spain in 2001. The internet and a couple of visits to the US on her part turned a very nice friendship into romance ... and we're now living in suburban Austin.

Edited February 11, 2006 by TXCubsFan

[Slugger_16]

As a relative newcomer to baseball, having grown up playing with a flat bat, I really enjoy what I learn here. I'd be interested in your thoughts on this.

 

Wow, that seems to me to be a cricket player. Are you? In Iowa?? BTW, welcome to the board.

 

A bat's a bat, even if it's flat. 10 feet on the west side is 10 feet on the east side.

 

Sorry, I just love that commercial...

[Guest]

A couple things that jumped out at me at first glance:

 

First of all, I'm not sure using a simple league-average payroll is the best estimate in this case. There are two huge outliers among playoff teams (Yanks and BoSox) that probaly skew that number higher than it should be by having payrolls 3-4 times league average and almost twice as big as any other team. It also looks like that method of payroll estimation severely undershoots the Cubs' 2005 payroll as it doesn't include money exchanged as part of trades. The $12-$15 million that was shipped along with Sosa to Baltimore isn't included, but if it was the Cubs would have two straight seasons with a ratio well above the playoff "threshold."

[pete the dog]

I grew up in Sydney and met this girl from illinois ...... you can guess the rest.

 

 

You traded Sydney for Iowa?!!!! You must *really* love this woman. :)

[NorthsideAvenger]

I grew up in Sydney and met this girl from illinois ...... you can guess the rest.

 

 

You traded Sydney for Iowa?!!!! You must *really* love this woman. :)

 

Why not...she is ONE heck of an agent...

[frostwyrm]

A couple things that jumped out at me at first glance:

 

First of all, I'm not sure using a simple league-average payroll is the best estimate in this case. There are two huge outliers among playoff teams (Yanks and BoSox) that probaly skew that number higher than it should be by having payrolls 3-4 times league average and almost twice as big as any other team. It also looks like that method of payroll estimation severely undershoots the Cubs' 2005 payroll as it doesn't include money exchanged as part of trades. The $12-$15 million that was shipped along with Sosa to Baltimore isn't included, but if it was the Cubs would have two straight seasons with a ratio well above the playoff "threshold."

 

I agree with everything you wrote. When Yanks/Bosox are in the equation any discussion of average payrolls is silly. Disregarding Sosa's money is silly too. Somebody paid out that money, and it wasn't the Orioles. Also, keeping Sosa certainly wouldn't have indicated an increased committment to winning.