Got My John Sickels Prospect Handbook Today....

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I haven't had the time to peruse it yet, but hopefully I will tonight.

[mhuber92211]

Nice Tease Vance! :D

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I should probably get on acquiring it (and the BA Prospect Handbook).

[series65cubsfan]

Nice Tease Vance! :D

 

I thought the same thing. I really wanted a little tid bit of something out of the book. :( :x

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Cubs have no grade "A" prospects according to Sickels.

He gives (2) a B+. (Paweleck and Pie)

 

Guzman who received an A in the 2003 book has slid all the way to B- in this edition.

[goonys evil twin]

The Cubs have no grade "A" prospects according to Sickels.

He gives (2) a B+. (Paweleck and Pie)

 

Guzman who received an A in the 2003 book has slid all the way to B- in this edition.

 

Kind of goes along with popular opinion there. This organization has slowly deteriorated after several years of continued improvement. I'd have no problem with a farm system that was barren of top talent if the big club was consistently very good. But that's not the case.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs have no grade "A" prospects according to Sickels.

He gives (2) a B+. (Paweleck and Pie)

 

Guzman who received an A in the 2003 book has slid all the way to B- in this edition.

 

How many prospects get each grade? Are there a lot of A's, is it a bell curve, etc.?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Cubs have no grade "A" prospects according to Sickels.

He gives (2) a B+. (Paweleck and Pie)

 

Guzman who received an A in the 2003 book has slid all the way to B- in this edition.

 

How many prospects get each grade? Are there a lot of A's, is it a bell curve, etc.?

 

 

Sickels is a very tough grader.

 

I haven't counted to see how many got A's, but let me share his quotes on his grading systems.

 

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

 

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in some marginal role.

 

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys that have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

 

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

 

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

 

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have toe read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

 

That in a nut shell explains Sickels's grading process.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

To further illuminate, here's the prospects Grade A- or higher by organization.

 

D'backs: S. Drew (A-), C. Jackson (A-), C. Quentin (A), J. Upton (A-), C. Young (A)

Braves: J. Saltalamacchia (A-)

Orioles: N. Markaris (A-)

Red Sox: Marte (A) - Now with the Indians. C. Hansen (A-)

Cubs: none

White Sox: none

Reds: none

Indians: none

Rockies: I. Stewart (A-)

Tigers: J. Verlander

Marlins: J. Hermidia (A)

Astros: Hirsh (A-)

Royals: A. Gordon (A)

Angels: H. Kendrick (A-), B. Wood (A)

Dodgers: C. Billingsly (A-),J. Guzman (A-)

Brewers: Fielder (A-)

Twins: F. Liriano (A)

Mets: Milledge (A-)

Yankees:none

A's: D. Barton (A-)

Phillies: none

Pirates: none

Cardinals: none

Padres: C. Carrillo (A-)

Giants: none

Mariners: J. Clement (A-)

Rays: D. Young (A)

Rangers: none

Jays: none

Nationals: R. Zimmerman (A)

 

So in total, 24 A- or better prospects.

[Laura]

I have the book waiting for me at home, but I'm on travel right now. :(

 

How does he grade D Veal?

[Tim]

And more than 20% of all the blue chip prospects in baseball in AZ's org. Looks like Sickels shares my opinion about their system. :)

[Tim]

I have the book waiting for me at home, but I'm on travel right now. :(

 

How does he grade D Veal?

I grade him as someone we're going to enjoy seeing at Peoria in 2006. :thumleft:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Sickels gives Veal a grade of B.

 

He begins his comments with "I like this one a LOT."

 

Without quoting all of his comments, I liked this one on Veal.

 

If I was in a deep fantasy league wit a big farm system reserve roster, and I was looking for a 'who the hell is THAT guy' name to spring on my fellow owners on draft day, Veal would be at the top of the list.

 

He later admits that he is being aggressive in giving Veal such a grade, but that he's putting his grade where his mouth is.

[Tim]

I'm surprised he doesn't have either Cain or Reyes as A prospects, actually. I guess the point is that it could be argued that several guys should be there who aren't, but there aren't any guys who are there who shouldn't be.

 

Tough grader, indeed.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I'm surprised he doesn't have either Cain or Reyes as A prospects, actually. I guess the point is that it could be argued that several guys should be there who aren't, but there aren't any guys who are there who shouldn't be.

 

Tough grader, indeed.

 

Two problems with Reyes:

 

1) Lacks a really flithy out pitch

2) Durability concerns

 

 

Considering Sickels is SABER minded I'm a little surpised Pie got a B+.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Sickels last sentence on Pie speaks volumes.

 

He (Pie) could be spectacular, but he could also be mediocre if he doesn't refine his game.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I missed Cain, sorry. He did get an A-. Reyes got a B+.

 

BTW, Tim, is there any chance we might could get John to come on and do a chat? Maybe we could allow him to put a link to buying the book on the site in exchange for a Q&A.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Not a troll post, I'm just new to evaluating prospects...

 

I guess I don't really understand why Pie is rated so highly. I know he's young with great tools however he strikes out a ton and he hardly ever takes a walk. Do players like him ever develop a lot of patience? Are there any comparable major league stud players who had similar numbers in the minors at his age? Hasn't he only had one really good season?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Not a troll post, I'm just new to evaluating prospects...

 

I guess I don't really understand why Pie is rated so highly. I know he's young with great tools however he strikes out a ton and he hardly ever takes a walk. Do players like him ever develop a lot of patience? Are there any major league stud players who had similar numbers in the minors at his age? Hasn't he only had one really good season?

 

Last year was the first year he showed much power, but he's had good years.

 

Here are his numbers:

 

A- 285/346/388

A+ 301/364/448

AA 304/349/554

 

Considering he just turned 20 last season, those are remarkable numbers for his age. He's been young for every league he's played.

 

 

He has all the physical tools. The only thing he lacks is plate discipline. Sickels notes that he's a good "bad" ball hitter, but that skill may not translate as he moves up. Of course, Guerrero is a "bad" ball hitter as is Soriano and both have had successful major league careers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not a troll post, I'm just new to evaluating prospects...

 

I guess I don't really understand why Pie is rated so highly. I know he's young with great tools however he strikes out a ton and he hardly ever takes a walk. Do players like him ever develop a lot of patience? Are there any comparable major league stud players who had similar numbers in the minors at his age? Hasn't he only had one really good season?

 

Pie's been able to hit for average everywhere he's been, which has helped mitigate his inability to take walks so far. His IsoP has improved each of the last 3 seasons, and therefore his SLG, OPS, RC27, etc.. He's been at least one year younger than normal at every level, which is a huge factor. Add in the fact he's got a great arm and every tool in the book, and it's not difficult to see why people are high on him. I don't think I can emphasize enough the age thing though. That's what sets his performance apart from others in addition to his tools, and it gives more hope to improving his plate discipline in the future with time on his side.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Thanks for the posts guys. Next question, do young players like Pie ever become "patient" hitters or is Guerrero\Soriano the ceiling?

 

edit - Guerrero is awesome but is pretty unique and probably was very hard to project

Edited February 1, 2006 by CardsFanInChiTown

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Thanks for the posts guys. Next question, do young players like Pie ever become "patient" hitters or is Guerrero\Soriano the ceiling?

 

Some do, some don't. Most will never become "very" patient hitters, but if the talent is there they compensate. Guerrero is a pretty damn high ceiling though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thanks for the posts guys. Next question, do young players like Pie ever become "patient" hitters or is Guerrero\Soriano the ceiling?

 

I don't think Pie's ever going to be Abreu or Giles patient, but I don't think it's out of the realm of comprehension for him to put up a .060 IsoD. Combine that with the ability to hit .300 and a .200+ IsoP, a .300/.360/.500+ line is fantastic for a CF.

[CubsMinorLeagueReport]

I am surprised that Hirsch for the Astros got an A-...Sure he is a nice prospect, but I just dont see him as the definition (as written by sickels) of an A. He would be a B range guy in my book.

[Outshined_One]

I am surprised that Hirsch for the Astros got an A-...Sure he is a nice prospect, but I just dont see him as the definition (as written by sickels) of an A. He would be a B range guy in my book.

 

BA thought highly enough of him to rate him the #1 prospect in the Astros organization over Troy Patton who, in my opinion, has the potential to torment the NL Central for years to come. A lefty with that kind of stuff and control who can keep the ball in the park is pretty hard to come by, ya know?