Team OBP Differential: 25 best MLB teams since 1970

[FergieJ31]

I had an hour to spend this afternoon with the new Lahman database (includes final 2005 statistics), and I've always wanted to see more attention paid to OBP against as a pitcher stat. For the very same reasons why OBP should be valued more than BA as an offensive stat, I've always wondered why a pitcher's OBP against (which I'll call oppOBP) isn't cited more as a pitching stat, instead of BAA.

 

There isn't quite enough info in the database to define an exact oppOBP, so I used a proxy(*):

 

oppOBP = (H + BB + HBP) / BFP where BFP is batters faced by pitcher.

 

Next I aggregated oppOBP and OBP across all players that played for each team and each year into a single measure of team performance: the OBPDifferential:

 

OPPDifferential = TeamOBP - TeamOppOBP

 

What I like about this stat is that it allows us to "compare apples-to-apples", across time and across leagues. That is, the average AL team OBP should naturally be higher than the average NL team OBP, but the differential adjusts for the DH effect by assigning equal importance to team pitching and batting.

 

For what it's worth, here are the best 25 teams in the past 36 years according to OBPDifferential:

Team	Year	OBPDifferential	   
SEA	2001	0.06502	   
NYA	1998	0.05754	   
BAL	1971	0.05718	   
LAN	1974	0.05490	   
BAL	1970	0.04989	   
NYA	2002	0.04953	   
ATL	1997	0.04911	   
BAL	1973	0.04841	   
BOS	2004	0.04660	   
NYA	2003	0.04659	   
LAN	1975	0.04652	   
ARI	2002	0.04636	   
HOU	1998	0.04602	   
CLE	1995	0.04593	   
CIN	1976	0.04536	   
PHI	1976	0.04393	   
ATL	1998	0.04384	   
CLE	1996	0.04327	   
OAK	2001	0.04287	   
NYN	1986	0.04237	   
NYA	1999	0.04189	   
BOS	2002	0.04160	   
SEA	2002	0.04125	   
BAL	1979	0.04098	   
NYA	1997	0.04082	    

Surprises (to me at least)

- the relative dearth of NL teams.

- 2002 D'backs and 1998 Astros (a big unit common denominator there).

- no STL entries: top entry was the 2004 Cards at #30

- the '75 Reds (whom I've heard some people cite as one of the greatest of all time) would have been #26, the first team not shown above.

 

Since 1970, out of a total of 936 team-years, the '72 Cubs placed the highest of any Cub team, at a depressing #122 on the list (0.2696 OBPDifferential). The next Cub entries:

 

'70 Cubs, #183

'01 Cubs, #200

'71 Cubs #298

'84 Cubs #302

'04 Cubs #339

'77 Cubs #390

'89 Cubs #413

'78 Cubs #450

'98 Cubs #461

'05 Cubs #485,

and finally (amazingly) the '03 Cubs #487.

 

Comments, questions & criticisms welcome of course.

 

 

(*) I think this measure misses errors: if a batter reaches on an error, the next one walks, and the pitcher gets the next 3 outs, the oppOBP stat for that pitcher in that inning would be .200 where it should be .250. Reached-on-errors isn't available in the Pitching table, so this oppOBP definition is the best I can do.

Edited January 15, 2006 by FergieJ31

[stitchface]

I would like to see the W-L records of these teams - obviously the top two were the most dominant teams of the last couple decades and a quick glance suggests strong correlation with wins and differential. Not at all surprising.

[MPrior]

An interesting followup would be to do the same thing with slugging, and cross-reference the lists.

[TB_11]

Here's the winning percentage of those teams:

 

Team	Year	OBPDiff     Win %	   
SEA	2001	0.06502     .716
NYA	1998	0.05754     .704
BAL	1971	0.05718     .639
LAN	1974	0.05490     .630
BAL	1970	0.04989     .667
NYA	2002	0.04953     .640
ATL	1997	0.04911     .623
BAL	1973	0.04841     .599
BOS	2004	0.04660     .605
NYA	2003	0.04659     .623
LAN	1975	0.04652     .543
ARI	2002	0.04636     .605
HOU	1998	0.04602     .630
CLE	1995	0.04593     .694
CIN	1976	0.04536     .630
PHI	1976	0.04393     .623
ATL	1998	0.04384     .654
CLE	1996	0.04327     .615
OAK	2001	0.04287     .630
NYN	1986	0.04237     .667
NYA	1999	0.04189     .605
BOS	2002	0.04160     .574
SEA	2002	0.04125     .574
BAL	1979	0.04098     .642
NYA	1997	0.04082     .593

[Outshined_One]

Let's see...

 

2001 Mariners: 116-46

1998 Yankees: 114-48

1971 Orioles: 101-57

1974 Dodgers: 102-60

1970 Orioles: 108-54

2002 Yankees: 103-58

1997 Braves: 101-61

2004 Red Sox: 98-64

2003 Yankees: 101-61

1975 Dodgers: 88-74

2002 Diamondbacks: 98-64

1998 Houston Astros: 102-60

1995 Indians: 100-44

1976 Reds: 102-60

1976 Phillies: 101-61

1998 Braves: 106-56

1996 Indians: 99-62

2001 Athletics: 102-60

1986 Mets: 108-54

1999 Yankees: 98-64

2002 Red Sox: 93-69

2002 Mariners: 93-69

1979 Orioles: 102-57

1997 Yankees: 96-66

[NewUserName]

a quick couple of comments. Also one question. first comment the 76 Reds were better than the 75 version. They lead the NL in every offensive category. Still they didnt have great pitching so the obp diff wouldnt be that high.

 

Second, I think this just helps point out what a lot of people on here already know, the 2003 Cubs were not a great team. They were lucky to play in a division that was down that year. they got hot pitching to beat the Braves and in reality they were beaten by a better team the Marlins even though they came close to winning that series.

 

One Question. Where did the 84 Tigers place on this list? They also seemed to be one of the most dominant one year teams that I could remember. just wondering

[FergieJ31]

a quick couple of comments. Also one question. first comment the 76 Reds were better than the 75 version. They lead the NL in every offensive category. Still they didnt have great pitching so the obp diff wouldnt be that high.

 

Second, I think this just helps point out what a lot of people on here already know, the 2003 Cubs were not a great team. They were lucky to play in a division that was down that year. they got hot pitching to beat the Braves and in reality they were beaten by a better team the Marlins even though they came close to winning that series.

 

One Question. Where did the 84 Tigers place on this list? They also seemed to be one of the most dominant one year teams that I could remember. just wondering

 

Thanks for the feedback - the '84 Tigers were #31 on the list, right below the 2004 Cardinals and right above of the 1990 A's.

 

I'd like to do some kind of analogous oppSLG or oppOPS run, but unfortunately the pitching table in the Lahman database doesn't include all extra base hits; it only has HR allowed. I would assume some of the recent Cub teams would place considerably higher (but still nowhere near the top) in a OPSDifferential ranking.

 

Also, I did a regression of OBPDifferential against winning pct: the correlation coefficient came out to about 88%.

[oldcubsfan]

I had an hour to spend this afternoon with the new Lahman database (includes final 2005 statistics), and I've always wanted to see more attention paid to OBP against as a pitcher stat. For the very same reasons why OBP should be valued more than BA as an offensive stat, I've always wondered why a pitcher's OBP against (which I'll call oppOBP) isn't cited more as a pitching stat, instead of BAA.

 

There isn't quite enough info in the database to define an exact oppOBP, so I used a proxy(*):

 

oppOBP = (H + BB + HBP) / BFP where BFP is batters faced by pitcher.

 

Next I aggregated oppOBP and OBP across all players that played for each team and each year into a single measure of team performance: the OBPDifferential:

 

OPPDifferential = TeamOBP - TeamOppOBP

 

What I like about this stat is that it allows us to "compare apples-to-apples", across time and across leagues. That is, the average AL team OBP should naturally be higher than the average NL team OBP, but the differential adjusts for the DH effect by assigning equal importance to team pitching and batting.

 

For what it's worth, here are the best 25 teams in the past 36 years according to OBPDifferential:

Team	Year	OBPDifferential	   
SEA	2001	0.06502	   
NYA	1998	0.05754	   
BAL	1971	0.05718	   
LAN	1974	0.05490	   
BAL	1970	0.04989	   
NYA	2002	0.04953	   
ATL	1997	0.04911	   
BAL	1973	0.04841	   
BOS	2004	0.04660	   
NYA	2003	0.04659	   
LAN	1975	0.04652	   
ARI	2002	0.04636	   
HOU	1998	0.04602	   
CLE	1995	0.04593	   
CIN	1976	0.04536	   
PHI	1976	0.04393	   
ATL	1998	0.04384	   
CLE	1996	0.04327	   
OAK	2001	0.04287	   
NYN	1986	0.04237	   
NYA	1999	0.04189	   
BOS	2002	0.04160	   
SEA	2002	0.04125	   
BAL	1979	0.04098	   
NYA	1997	0.04082	    

Surprises (to me at least)

- the relative dearth of NL teams.

- 2002 D'backs and 1998 Astros (a big unit common denominator there).

- no STL entries: top entry was the 2004 Cards at #30

- the '75 Reds (whom I've heard some people cite as one of the greatest of all time) would have been #26, the first team not shown above.

 

Since 1970, out of a total of 936 team-years, the '72 Cubs placed the highest of any Cub team, at a depressing #122 on the list (0.2696 OBPDifferential). The next Cub entries:

 

'70 Cubs, #183

'01 Cubs, #200

'71 Cubs #298

'84 Cubs #302

'04 Cubs #339

'77 Cubs #390

'89 Cubs #413

'78 Cubs #450

'98 Cubs #461

'05 Cubs #485,

and finally (amazingly) the '03 Cubs #487.

 

Comments, questions & criticisms welcome of course.

 

 

(*) I think this measure misses errors: if a batter reaches on an error, the next one walks, and the pitcher gets the next 3 outs, the oppOBP stat for that pitcher in that inning would be .200 where it should be .250. Reached-on-errors isn't available in the Pitching table, so this oppOBP definition is the best I can do.

How about putting up the world series teams for the same years, could be interesting.

[FergieJ31]

11 of the top 25 teams won the pennant; only 6 won the WS. Which would seem to corroborate Billy Beane's famous line: "My job is to get my team into the playoffs; what happens after that is a blankety-blank crapshoot."

 

Top 50 below (sorry bout the misaligned column headings):

Rank	Team	Year	OBPDifferential	WinningPct	WCWin	DivWin	LgWin	WSWin
1	SEA	2001	0.06502	0.716	N	Y	N	N
2	NYA	1998	0.05754	0.704	N	Y	Y	Y
3	BAL	1971	0.05718	0.639		Y	Y	N
4	LAN	1974	0.05490	0.630		Y	Y	N
5	BAL	1970	0.04989	0.667		Y	Y	Y
6	NYA	2002	0.04953	0.640	N	Y	N	N
7	ATL	1997	0.04911	0.623	N	Y	N	N
8	BAL	1973	0.04841	0.599		Y	N	N
9	BOS	2004	0.04660	0.605	Y	N	Y	Y
10	NYA	2003	0.04659	0.623	N	Y	Y	N
11	LAN	1975	0.04652	0.543		N	N	N
12	ARI	2002	0.04636	0.605	N	Y	N	N
13	HOU	1998	0.04602	0.630	N	Y	N	N
14	CLE	1995	0.04593	0.694	N	Y	Y	N
15	CIN	1976	0.04536	0.630		Y	Y	Y
16	PHI	1976	0.04393	0.623		Y	N	N
17	ATL	1998	0.04384	0.654	N	Y	N	N
18	CLE	1996	0.04327	0.615	N	Y	N	N
19	OAK	2001	0.04287	0.630	Y	N	N	N
20	NYN	1986	0.04237	0.667		Y	Y	Y
21	NYA	1999	0.04189	0.605	N	Y	Y	Y
22	BOS	2002	0.04160	0.574	N	N	N	N
23	SEA	2002	0.04125	0.574	N	N	N	N
24	BAL	1979	0.04098	0.642		Y	Y	N
25	NYA	1997	0.04082	0.593	Y	N	N	N
26	CIN	1975	0.04061	0.667		Y	Y	Y
27	BOS	1988	0.04057	0.549		Y	N	N
28	NYN	1988	0.04014	0.625		Y	N	N
29	BOS	1999	0.03983	0.580	Y	N	N	N
30	SLN	2004	0.03941	0.648	N	Y	Y	N
31	DET	1984	0.03840	0.642		Y	Y	Y
32	OAK	1990	0.03833	0.636		Y	Y	N
33	LAN	1985	0.03830	0.586		Y	N	N
34	NYN	1999	0.03829	0.595	Y	N	N	N
35	BOS	2003	0.03799	0.586	Y	N	N	N
36	SEA	2003	0.03774	0.574	N	N	N	N
37	LAN	1973	0.03747	0.590		N	N	N
38	NYA	1981	0.03744	0.551		Y	Y	N
39	PIT	1991	0.03741	0.605		Y	N	N
40	CLE	2005	0.03674	0.574	N	N	N	N
41	LAN	1978	0.03660	0.586		Y	Y	N
42	SLN	1985	0.03608	0.623		Y	Y	N
43	CIN	1974	0.03547	0.605		N	N	N
44	ARI	2001	0.03529	0.568	N	Y	Y	Y
45	ATL	1996	0.03521	0.593	N	Y	Y	N
46	HOU	1999	0.03490	0.599	N	Y	N	N
47	HOU	1981	0.03489	0.555		Y	N	N
48	PHI	1993	0.03485	0.599		Y	Y	N
49	ATL	1993	0.03474	0.642		Y	N	N
50	TEX	1977	0.03469	0.580		N	N	N

[Guest]

I'd like to do some kind of analogous oppSLG or oppOPS run, but unfortunately the pitching table in the Lahman database doesn't include all extra base hits; it only has HR allowed. I would assume some of the recent Cub teams would place considerably higher (but still nowhere near the top) in a OPSDifferential ranking.

 

Also, I did a regression of OBPDifferential against winning pct: the correlation coefficient came out to about 88%.

I generated that info for 2004 and 2005 teams using PBP data. The results of those regressions:

        AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS     R Diff.  WP%
WP%     0.705   0.871   0.797   0.888   0.934    1.000

As you'd expect, OPS differential shows the greatest correlation with winning percentage among the big three rate stats. Of course none of them can compare with a straight run differential (simply RS-RA) when you're looking for an accurate predictor of a team's results. This stands to reason as component offensive stats map to runs while runs map to wins. By skipping the runs step and going straight to component offensive stats you introduce the opportunity for additional error.

 

EDIT: For the record, the 2004 Cubs placed 3rd and the 2005 Cubs placed 7th in SLG differential, while stacking up 4th and 17th respectively in OPS differential. (Out of 60 total team-years.)