Mired in Mediocrity

[stitchface]

With the talk this week of extensions for Hendry and Baker, I have to think we are in for an extended period of mediocrity. This team is probably good enough to win 85-90 games in 2006 if they can keep people healthy. Honestly, if Wood, Prior, and Zambrano are healthy, the pitching is pretty good at the top. Maddux and Williams aren't a great back end but they aren't the worst in baseball either. The offense is probably going to be about the same as last year. Pierre and Cedeno should be better than CF and SS last year. Lee will drop but hopefully ARam will be around for the whole year. I could see 700-720 runs again in 2006. Thus, if the pitching can improve to 650 runs or so, a tall order but not at all impossible, with a little luck this team will be in contention. Granted those are a lot of ifs, but I think the 2006 Cubs will be good enough to warrant extensions.

 

What amazes me about Hendry is that he almost seems to strive for medicority. Constantly pursuing the second tier, the almost great, the pretty good (in addiiton to the pretty bad). The Cubs seem doomed to never step into the dominant team role because they aren't willing to commit to dominant players.

[rawaction]

I think he values safety. I think he would rather overpay someone that could surprise, but most likely will be consistent (good or bad)....than to overpay someone who could have a big collapse. I think he feels burned by the Alou and Nomar deals. Neither justified the big money they got, outside of Alou in his walk year. That's why I believe he didn't go after Giles, the fear that he would age and become a problem contract. That's why I believe he won't trade anything of value for players like Wilkerson, Huff, etc, because they have had fluctuations in production. That's why I believe he has interest in Tejada. While he could be better than his recent numbers, they have been consistent and won't likely get worse in the near future. I think Lee was an example of a safe bet to produce consistently solid numbers, but also could surprise....which he did. I think Ramirez and Barrett are examples of guys who he didn't give up value for because of their production fluctuations.

 

I think Hendry should take more chances. Sign Magglio or Drew to an incentive based contract, despite still having Sosa on the roster. Sign Tejada, and worry about finding a take for Gonzalez later. Sign a starter, then worry about who pitches in what role.

[Quakers]

I think Hendry knows that he is not going to be able to outbid baseball for the premium FA talent. If he lands a big name (Alou, Nomar, etc..), it will come with a big risk. I still think that the best way for the Cubs to overcome mediocrity is with a strong farm system. A few years ago this looked like it was happening, but the last couple of drafts have been disappointing to say the least. That is why I am very interested in Wilkin's signing. From the reports I have read, he has been a key player in an organization that has produced a considerable amount of talent. But is he someone who will coast and earn his salary living off the expectations developed during his Toronto tenure or will he and his team of assistants deliver. I will be very interested in the upcoming draft and I am really looking forward to this year's Boise team. (They will be in Salem the second week of June this year!)