Cubs Eyeing Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta

12 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Arguably his biggest red flag is his penchant to give up home runs as an extreme fly ball pitcher, but that would be less of a concern at the spacious confines of Wrigley Field.

 

Outside of last year, what?

Generally best not to bet against Passan but Nick Pivetta with a qualifying offer attached does not feel like a likely target.  Without the pick?  Sure, the stuff models ADORE him and while there's a gap between his peripherals and his ERA, it's pretty easy to chalk that up to Boston's terrible defense.

Kikuchi is much more straightforward.  He has always looked like an ace, but settled in as merely pretty good.  But after going to Houston and making some very straightforward adjustments (mainly throwing fewer curveballs) he looked like an absolute ACE down the stretch last year.  If you think he's even 80% of what he was in Houston going forward, it's a no brainer to sign him for $60-80M when Fried's going to get more than double that and Burnes is going to get ~3x as much.

I would be quite upset to lose a pick for Pivetta. They must not feel they have any shot at Flaherty.

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Outside of last year, what?

Looking at the Park Factors on Fangraphs, Wrigley has been average or lower in terms of homerun rates every year starting with 2016, and even before that wasn't super high.

Whether global warming or the scoreboards or the construction in the neighborhood it's been a while since the wind blew out often enough for Wrigley to net out as a hitters park.

7 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Outside of last year, what?

Over the last three years, 7% less home runs were observed at Wrigley than other ballparks of players who have played at Wrigley. While 7% may seem small that's the 10th lowest in all of baseball over that time.

I'd go Kikuchi.  Pivetta just isn't good enough IMO.

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'd go Kikuchi.  Pivetta just isn't good enough IMO.

To finish your sentence, he isn’t good enough “to lose a second and fifth round draft pick to sign him’ 

I'm probably oversimplifying but this obsession with losing non-first round picks is seeming maybe a little disingenuous? Like the conversation has evolved to the point where it's a bad look to be like 'this player isn't worth the money', and so now we're just being like 'oh no, not a draft pick!'. Aware that the Fangraphs of the world have assigned a rough value to those picks, but like....can anyone name our fifth round picks from the last 5 years?

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

To finish your sentence, he isn’t good enough “to lose a second and fifth round draft pick to sign him’ 

Not entirely sure I agree with that. Using his movement and velocity, here are the pitchers his 2024 most compares to:

2023 Justin Verlander: 21.5% K%, 6.7 BB%, 3.22 ERA, 3.3 fWAR
2018 Trevor Bauer: 30.8 K%, 7.9 BB%, 2.,21 ERA, 5.8 fWAR
2021 Drew Rasmussen: 23.8 K%, 81 BB%, 2.84 ERA, 1.4 fWAAR (sub 80 IP)
2018 Justin Verlander: 34.8 K%, 4.4% BB%, 2.52 ERA, 6.6 fWAR
2019 Mitch Keller: 28.6 K%, 7 BB%, 7.13 ERA, 1.3 fWAR (sub 50 IP - rookie season)

2024 Nick Pivetta: 28.9 K%, 6.1 BB%,, 4.14 ERA, 2 fWAR

There's some really, really good seasons and some really good pitchers that his movement and shape matches. There's a bit of projection here; clearly he hasn't had the full season that 2018 Bauer or 2018 Verlander had. And I don't want to say that he's those guys. But his stuff looks like that of a front line guy. There's no major arm injury history here. If you sat down and you said that you were trading signing an 8+ year contract for that of a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick, the 5th round being especially uninteresting to me as it's effectively just a lottery ticket, and you internally you're projecting him as a #2? I could buy it. 

You're buying a lot into your analytical department. But it also feels a bit like buying a Kevin Gausman a few years ago. In three years, I wouldn't be surprised if we all looked at Pivetta and went "Damn, he's pretty good, that was a really good deal". 

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm probably oversimplifying but this obsession with losing non-first round picks is seeming maybe a little disingenuous? Like the conversation has evolved to the point where it's a bad look to be like 'this player isn't worth the money', and so now we're just being like 'oh no, not a draft pick!'. Aware that the Fangraphs of the world have assigned a rough value to those picks, but like....can anyone name our fifth round picks from the last 5 years?

It's less that people think they're drafting a star in the 5th round(though in the 'NSBB era' Samardzija, Steele, Szczur, Birdsell, Velazquez is a decent track record), but what it does to your overall ability to give out bonuses in the 1st and other rounds.  This is why even the big market teams people most want the Cubs to emulate generally(but not exclusively) sign a QO when they have the fallback of a QO comp pick themselves.

20 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm probably oversimplifying but this obsession with losing non-first round picks is seeming maybe a little disingenuous? Like the conversation has evolved to the point where it's a bad look to be like 'this player isn't worth the money', and so now we're just being like 'oh no, not a draft pick!'. Aware that the Fangraphs of the world have assigned a rough value to those picks, but like....can anyone name our fifth round picks from the last 5 years?

I believe at one point Jed mentioned, either directly or through the guys at the Athletic, that they value the picks lost for a qualifying offer at around $20M.  So I think there's just a fairly high threshold where "oh and another $20M on top of the cash" isn't a backbreaker.  I would guess given how he zeroed in on Taillon two years ago that the threshold is a good bit higher than even the $80M he got.

For simplicities sake in my head if I'm trying to predict Jed a QO for any 8 figure contract is a no go, while at 9 figures it's at least believable he'll pull the trigger.  We unfortunately only have an N of 1 in Swanson.

As, I believe, the highest guy on Kikuchi, I figure it's worth elucidating a bit on why he'd be a strong signing 

- At a topline, I expect that Kikuchi is the 3rd best pitcher in this FA class behind Burnes and Fried right now.  I also think the gap between any of the top 3 (or Snell for that matter) is pretty nominal.  Maybe half a win between #1 and #4

- Despite being right there with Burnes/Fried/Snell on talent, projections are that Kikuchi is going to make something in the $60-80M range.  Snell will get around double that, Fried about 2.5x, and Burnes about 3x.  I expect whoever signs him him to "win" this round of free agency on a $/WAR basis

- Despite being 33 (which is why he won't get 9 figures), Yusei probably has the most upside of any FA pitcher on the market.  He leveled up significantly immediately upon going to the Astros behind some very straightforward tweaks to his arsenal.  You probably shouldn't expect *that* as his true talent, but the Blue Jays are pretty clearly behind the curve on pitching development and you can pretty safely assume he's better than his Blue Jays numbers

- To the above point about upside, and also when wondering how he'll age, it's worth noting that Kikuchi was 6th among left handed starters last year in fastball velo.  He was 5th in Stuff+ (his whole arsenal not just his FB) and 3rd in PitchingBot's stuff

- Kikuchi does come with risk.  He has always given up more dongs than he "should" given his peripherals, and while there are zero flags in his performance as an Astro it was only 60 innings.  He was mostly bad before 2022

- It's not enough of a reason on its own to do this signing, but you have to think having another Japanese teammate in the rotation would be a positive on the Sasaki pursuit

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

As, I believe, the highest guy on Kikuchi, I figure it's worth elucidating a bit on why he'd be a strong signing 

- At a topline, I expect that Kikuchi is the 3rd best pitcher in this FA class behind Burnes and Fried right now.  I also think the gap between any of the top 3 (or Snell for that matter) is pretty nominal.  Maybe half a win between #1 and #4

- Despite being right there with Burnes/Fried/Snell on talent, projections are that Kikuchi is going to make something in the $60-80M range.  Snell will get around double that, Fried about 2.5x, and Burnes about 3x.  I expect whoever signs him him to "win" this round of free agency on a $/WAR basis

- Despite being 33 (which is why he won't get 9 figures), Yusei probably has the most upside of any FA pitcher on the market.  He leveled up significantly immediately upon going to the Astros behind some very straightforward tweaks to his arsenal.  You probably shouldn't expect *that* as his true talent, but the Blue Jays are pretty clearly behind the curve on pitching development and you can pretty safely assume he's better than his Blue Jays numbers

- To the above point about upside, and also when wondering how he'll age, it's worth noting that Kikuchi was 6th among left handed starters last year in fastball velo.  He was 5th in Stuff+ (his whole arsenal not just his FB) and 3rd in PitchingBot's stuff

- Kikuchi does come with risk.  He has always given up more dongs than he "should" given his peripherals, and while there are zero flags in his performance as an Astro it was only 60 innings.  He was mostly bad before 2022

- It's not enough of a reason on its own to do this signing, but you have to think having another Japanese teammate in the rotation would be a positive on the Sasaki pursuit

I like Kikuchi quite a bit as well and the upside is significant,  but I wouldn't want to grab Kikuchi and call it a day on the rotation. 

24 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I like Kikuchi quite a bit as well and the upside is significant,  but I wouldn't want to grab Kikuchi and call it a day on the rotation. 

Totally, there's some risk there and honestly I'm increasingly of the camp that even if we added an unequivocally ace like Tarik Skubal I'd want to add two SPs this winter.

6 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Not entirely sure I agree with that. Using his movement and velocity, here are the pitchers his 2024 most compares to:

2023 Justin Verlander: 21.5% K%, 6.7 BB%, 3.22 ERA, 3.3 fWAR
2018 Trevor Bauer: 30.8 K%, 7.9 BB%, 2.,21 ERA, 5.8 fWAR
2021 Drew Rasmussen: 23.8 K%, 81 BB%, 2.84 ERA, 1.4 fWAAR (sub 80 IP)
2018 Justin Verlander: 34.8 K%, 4.4% BB%, 2.52 ERA, 6.6 fWAR
2019 Mitch Keller: 28.6 K%, 7 BB%, 7.13 ERA, 1.3 fWAR (sub 50 IP - rookie season)

2024 Nick Pivetta: 28.9 K%, 6.1 BB%,, 4.14 ERA, 2 fWAR

There's some really, really good seasons and some really good pitchers that his movement and shape matches. There's a bit of projection here; clearly he hasn't had the full season that 2018 Bauer or 2018 Verlander had. And I don't want to say that he's those guys. But his stuff looks like that of a front line guy. There's no major arm injury history here. If you sat down and you said that you were trading signing an 8+ year contract for that of a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick, the 5th round being especially uninteresting to me as it's effectively just a lottery ticket, and you internally you're projecting him as a #2? I could buy it. 

You're buying a lot into your analytical department. But it also feels a bit like buying a Kevin Gausman a few years ago. In three years, I wouldn't be surprised if we all looked at Pivetta and went "Damn, he's pretty good, that was a really good deal". 

Let me clarify my statement. Stratos said Pivetta wasn’t good enough but Kikuchi was. I happen to like Pivetta a bit. So I added to his comment that he was not good enough, because I thought the only way he would say that is because of the draft pick compensation. I don’t see how Kikuchi could be someone they should sign but not Pivetta if it wasn’t for that reason. That said, I am not certain the Cubs will sign a mid level starter on a 3 year deal if it means losing a second and fifth would pick. Maybe they would do it on a 5 year or more deal. But do you want then to sign Pivetta for 5 or more years? I’m not sure I would want that.  That is why I will stay with my belief that they won’t do it. I would be more than happy if they proved me wrong. As I said, I do like Pivetta a bit more than Kikuchi. But, I think, more than likely, they will either trade for a starter or sign a mid level guy not attached to a QO to a 3 year or less deal. 

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

To finish your sentence, he isn’t good enough “to lose a second and fifth round draft pick to sign him’ 

Lol. Well true but I also think we need to do a bit better than him.

7 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Not entirely sure I agree with that. Using his movement and velocity, here are the pitchers his 2024 most compares to:

2023 Justin Verlander: 21.5% K%, 6.7 BB%, 3.22 ERA, 3.3 fWAR
2018 Trevor Bauer: 30.8 K%, 7.9 BB%, 2.,21 ERA, 5.8 fWAR
2021 Drew Rasmussen: 23.8 K%, 81 BB%, 2.84 ERA, 1.4 fWAAR (sub 80 IP)
2018 Justin Verlander: 34.8 K%, 4.4% BB%, 2.52 ERA, 6.6 fWAR
2019 Mitch Keller: 28.6 K%, 7 BB%, 7.13 ERA, 1.3 fWAR (sub 50 IP - rookie season)

2024 Nick Pivetta: 28.9 K%, 6.1 BB%,, 4.14 ERA, 2 fWAR

There's some really, really good seasons and some really good pitchers that his movement and shape matches. There's a bit of projection here; clearly he hasn't had the full season that 2018 Bauer or 2018 Verlander had. And I don't want to say that he's those guys. But his stuff looks like that of a front line guy. There's no major arm injury history here. If you sat down and you said that you were trading signing an 8+ year contract for that of a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick, the 5th round being especially uninteresting to me as it's effectively just a lottery ticket, and you internally you're projecting him as a #2? I could buy it. 

You're buying a lot into your analytical department. But it also feels a bit like buying a Kevin Gausman a few years ago. In three years, I wouldn't be surprised if we all looked at Pivetta and went "Damn, he's pretty good, that was a really good deal". 

Pivetta has always given up lots of HR though.

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Let me clarify my statement. Stratos said Pivetta wasn’t good enough but Kikuchi was. I happen to like Pivetta a bit. So I added to his comment that he was not good enough, because I thought the only way he would say that is because of the draft pick compensation. I don’t see how Kikuchi could be someone they should sign but not Pivetta if it wasn’t for that reason. That said, I am not certain the Cubs will sign a mid level starter on a 3 year deal if it means losing a second and fifth would pick. Maybe they would do it on a 5 year or more deal. But do you want then to sign Pivetta for 5 or more years? I’m not sure I would want that.  That is why I will stay with my belief that they won’t do it. I would be more than happy if they proved me wrong. As I said, I do like Pivetta a bit more than Kikuchi. But, I think, more than likely, they will either trade for a starter or sign a mid level guy not attached to a QO to a 3 year or less deal. 

In three years wasn't meant to denote a length of contract. I was saying in three years, I think its very possible we look at a Pivetta contract and look back and simply say that it's turned out pretty well. It might still have time left on it. Just that come three years, it could look like a relative bargain. 

The Cubs may hem and haw at a QO. Im not sure I'd agree with that hemming and hawing, though.

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Pivetta has always given up lots of HR though.

He's much more of a fly ball pitcher than a ground ball pitcher, that's going to happen, yes. The point of that post wasn't to point out everything about Pivetta, but to show why there's a belief that Pivetta has more in the tank. The stuff in terms of shape and movement matches that of very good pitchers who had very good seasons. If you can have him miss a few more barrels, there's a decent jump here that can be found. 

Like I said, you've got to be invested in your analytical team and have a plan. But there's a pitcher here who's probably worth giving up the QO payment if you have some solid modeling on him.

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

In three years wasn't meant to denote a length of contract. I was saying in three years, I think its very possible we look at a Pivetta contract and look back and simply say that it's turned out pretty well. It might still have time left on it. Just that come three years, it could look like a relative bargain. 

 

The Cubs may hem and haw at a QO. Im not sure I'd agree with that hemming and hawing, though.

I think if they like him enough to go 5 years they won’t worry about the QO penalty. But to sign him for 2 or 3 years they might not want to part with a second round pick. I don’t believe they have ever lost a second round pick for a guy they signed for 3 years. I realize you never said 3 years. I am saying it as a time line that, IMO, they would have to exceed in signing someone if they are losing a pick.  So if it is Pivetta my guess is he would get a 4 or 5 year deal.