Yes, they show you who has the best chance, but not who will win. Ok...now is it always right? No. It gives you the best chance and that's it. Now, for what we were talking about earlier the variables that happen during a game that are not measured by numbers. A pitcher that is a starter his whole career and struggles late and is an alcoholic. He stops drinking gets traded and is one of the greatest closers of all time. What stat told me this was going to happen? i'm sorry CCF, but this is almost not worth responding to. this has nothing to do with what we're talking about. It does and it doesn't. It has something to do with unknown variables and trends and how you would react if you were a GM in that instance. using your logic, if i see a relatively ineffective pitcher have an effective outing, he should be counted on to be effective throughout the season. you don't acquire and use a bad player if you think there's an off-chance that he could be good on a particular day. "well, novoa has an 8 run era in his last 10 outings, lou, what do you think?" "ah, he's due." that's bad management. that's micromanagement. a good GM or manager will put the best players on the field, not bad players that they feel have a chance to be good on a particular game. And you're talking as if everything is equal. Who knows who in the pen is tired. Who knows who is available that can possibly give the Cubs 4 innings to rest the pen.