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Bull

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Everything posted by Bull

  1. Bull
    Looking over player projections for 2026 and fWAR vs bWAR values from last year. I know I'm probably late to the party on this, but I'm trying to figure out a few things. 1. ZiPS is based on FWAR which is fielding independent. Since several Cubs pitch to contact, their projections undervalue them. TorF? Is this an accurate premise to build off of? 2. The Cubs pitching staff is advantaged by their excellent defense, whether that is PCA running down Shota's gopher balls in the gaps, or Nico and Dansby picking it for Boyd and Cade. 3. Much of the value of Cubs pitchers throwing ground balls (or fly balls) is realized in Cubs defenders with fWAR. With bWAR, the value of Cubs defenders picking more ground balls that their pitchers threw is counted for both the Cubs defenders AND their pitchers receiving value credit. TorF? 4. If 1, 2, and 3 are true, why are Cubs pitchers' 2025 fWAR values, consistently lower than bWAR? Boyd Horton Rea fWAR 3.4, 2.2, 1.9 respectively. 2.5, 2.0, 1.5 bWAR. Shouldn't the bWAR be higher due to the Cubs elite defense. Somewhere along the line I'm getting something wrong.
  2. Bull
    Have the Cubs signed a QO guy yet this offseason? I just don't see it happening unless he comes down to 15 a year (with the opt out, and a team option at 20). But 20per, loss of picks and an opt out. 2 of 3 but not all 3.
  3. Bull
    The general atmosphere here is constantly antagonizing. I need to shut up before I get baited into my own ban.
  4. Bull
    deleted.....I'm not going to get sucked in.
  5. Bull
    That's all I'm asking.
  6. Bull
    My comment was not just about the latest incident. This has become a place where half the country is made to feel uncomfortable, Matt Shaw is called awful names, and one side of the political spectrum is given free reign to be as offensive as they want. I've avoided the political forum and tried to talk baseball. Most conservatives would view me as pretty liberal. I pastor a church with a medical clinic that caters to people without documentation. But the extreme liberal vitriol here is just too much, and the mods have stopped caring.
  7. Bull
    I've been here 20 years, and I've seen so many people get away with so much. This place has devolved into a liberal echo chamber where one sided political discussion is welcomed and saying extremely offensive things against anyone suggesting a moderate or conservative opinion is celebrated. That dude was responding to people who came after him and called him names. I haven't always agreed with him, but you banned the wrong person.
  8. Bull
    If you are implying I was equating “average” to B+, try reading again. I was saying he’s probably average, and “maybe” slightly above average. If I had said he C, maybe as high as B+ it may have been more clear.
  9. Bull
    It does happen, often. But there is a preponderance of evidence that it happens more often when pitchers are abused. And Dusty Baker abused pitchers more severely and for a longer period of time than any other manager since statistical analysis overtook fishing metaphors as a core competency for managers. He was late to the party and it cost the Cubs a dynasty. I don't see why you are having a hard time with this.
  10. Bull
    And yet he's an average fielder at this stage in his career. Maybe B+
  11. Bull
    With an 8 run lead? Yes, absolutely. There weren't many opportunities to rest his "horses" as he called them that year. Unfortunately, Dusty wasn't looking for opportunities to rest them, he was looking for opportunities to ride them. Like a salmon rides the current.
  12. Bull
    It's not just the Cubs. His Giant's pitchers were exhausted in the playoffs. He tommy john'd Bailey. Cueto regularly pitched 8-9 innings in '12 and Dusty was dumbfounded that he was injured in the playoffs. And the Reds finished 9 games up on the Cardinals that year. No excuse. He was stupid and he killed my two favorite pitchers.
  13. Bull
    I've repeatedly gone on record that this s silliness. What am I missing? I have not seen a single credible report that the Cubs are in any way considering a trade of either Shaw of Nico. It makes zero sense as they are clearly going for it this year. They go over the tax every other year if they are in the sweet spot of a win cycle, and this is it. I can't see a significant enough overpay of Nico that would warrant the step back on this year, and I can't see anyone giving enough for 6 years of Shaw lose his value to this team. It's just not happening. What am I missing?
  14. Bull
    This is silly. Sure, everyone was using peds, but Dusty Baker send him out to pitch the 8th inning with 108 pitches, up 8-1. Dusty killed Prior and Wood.
  15. Bull
    Andy Sisco. I was certain he was the next Randy Johnson. And Chadd Blasko, but just because I had interviewed him when I wrote for cubstalk.com.
  16. Bull
    Can we please change the thread title. This has been thoroughly debunked. Its embarrassing.
  17. Bull
    Of course I do. And he certainly counts as a prospect in conversations about "preseason top prospects" and such. But in the context of introducing prospects at the convention, the guy you expect to have the 10th most PAs on your team this year, in your lineup more often than he's not, doesn't count as bringing in a prospect.
  18. Bull
    Especially since, though you may try, there's no guarantee you can resign Hoerner. Why give up on Shaw this year of all years when he offers you pretty significant hedge against injury and Will have 400-500 PA's without a Hoerner/Bregman/Swanson injury? I still think the whole exercise is silly. There is no way the Cubs are shopping him. Any return would be an overpay, and teams aren't likely to do that. It's just not a thing.
  19. Bull
    He’s the only one left.
  20. Bull
    I would.
  21. Bull
    Shaw fills that 2B spot.
  22. Bull
    Poorly worded on my part. More that if another team sees him as "the odd man out" per Nightengale, teams would be trying to get a bargain on him. And just to reinforce the idea that they are certainly not trying to trade him when he is a very big part of the picture this year and going forward.
  23. Bull
    I am astonished we are entertaining trading Shaw when his value may be at its lowest. I can't imagine Jed is, and have heard nothing to convince me that is the case. Its all clickbait. To put a fine point on it, the title of this thread is a lie. The Giants and Cubs are not and never were "discussing" a Nico Hoerner trade.
  24. Bull
    This whole conversation is silly. (from the video) Of course Nico is staying put. How is this a question. There's no reason to trade Nico. There's no reason Shaw has to have a "great spring" to make the team (per the video embedded above). There's no way Shaw is demoted for "much of the year". This is ridiculous. Somebody pull up the "too many middle infielders" conversation from Barney, Castro, Baez, Russel, Torres-on-his-way days. These things work themselves out. There are injuries. Look at the 2016 fielding stats between Zobrist and Baez. This is just so silly. Baez had 450 PA's, Zobrist had 523 (mostly at second base). Javy played 5 positions, Zobrist played 5 positions. One of them will play some CF. Nico will play some SS to rest Dansby. Against lefties Bregman may DH some. He'll also have to rest. Someone will sprain a muscle, or worse. Why are we (I'm not talking about the thread as much as I am the sportswriters) having this conversation?
  25. Bull
    I really don't like some of clickbait headlines NSBB is putting out lately. Keep it on the news page if you have to do it, but the forums are sacrosanct ground.
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