Looking over player projections for 2026 and fWAR vs bWAR values from last year. I know I'm probably late to the party on this, but I'm trying to figure out a few things.
1. ZiPS is based on FWAR which is fielding independent. Since several Cubs pitch to contact, their projections undervalue them. TorF? Is this an accurate premise to build off of?
2. The Cubs pitching staff is advantaged by their excellent defense, whether that is PCA running down Shota's gopher balls in the gaps, or Nico and Dansby picking it for Boyd and Cade.
3. Much of the value of Cubs pitchers throwing ground balls (or fly balls) is realized in Cubs defenders with fWAR. With bWAR, the value of Cubs defenders picking more ground balls that their pitchers threw is counted for both the Cubs defenders AND their pitchers receiving value credit. TorF?
4. If 1, 2, and 3 are true, why are Cubs pitchers' 2025 fWAR values, consistently lower than bWAR? Boyd Horton Rea fWAR 3.4, 2.2, 1.9 respectively. 2.5, 2.0, 1.5 bWAR. Shouldn't the bWAR be higher due to the Cubs elite defense.
Somewhere along the line I'm getting something wrong.