Bull

Is the schtik here that Nightengale’s wrong or that the “vote of confidence” is the kiss of death?

Nope. Especially as it's become more and more clear how early players' peaks are, especially when it comes to offensive output. I've seen some of the articles on peaks coming earlier, but I feel like they're missing something. I think the biggest reason for this is that "decent major leaguers" don't last as long as they used to. Once the "marginal" major leaguer hit arbitration, he's DFA'd. Ten years ago he still received a contract. Once the "decent" major leaguer hits free agency, he's now offerred a minor league deal, when you used to get a multi-year ML contract, because now the GM's realize they can get nearly the same production out of a rookie. And that rookie is getting a shot earlier, making his peak even earlier (simply becasue there is data for earlier). This is all based on my assumption that lack of data for a 34 year old (fewer 34 year olds getting ML free agent contracts) counts as a negative in these models. If removing these marginal players doesn't "count against" their age range, and just eliminates poorer performances, then I'm more wrong than you think I am. I would love to see reaserach on the aging curve of 10-year vets. I would imagine they are not much different that they were 10 years ago. Bumping because new page. Sofa, I’d genuinely like to hear your take on this, especially if I’m way off base.

Are the other teams not aging as well. Other teams are bringing in better players to make themselves better and offset internal declines. Nah. The players they bring in will just decline.

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense. I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded. Nope. Especially as it's become more and more clear how early players' peaks are, especially when it comes to offensive output. I've seen some of the articles on peaks coming earlier, but I feel like they're missing something. I think the biggest reason for this is that "decent major leaguers" don't last as long as they used to. Once the "marginal" major leaguer hit arbitration, he's DFA'd. Ten years ago he still received a contract. Once the "decent" major leaguer hits free agency, he's now offerred a minor league deal, when you used to get a multi-year ML contract, because now the GM's realize they can get nearly the same production out of a rookie. And that rookie is getting a shot earlier, making his peak even earlier (simply becasue there is data for earlier). This is all based on my assumption that lack of data for a 34 year old (fewer 34 year olds getting ML free agent contracts) counts as a negative in these models. If removing these marginal players doesn't "count against" their age range, and just eliminates poorer performances, then I'm more wrong than you think I am. I would love to see reaserach on the aging curve of 10-year vets. I would imagine they are not much different that they were 10 years ago.

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense. I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded.

I can foresee a volleyball like set of rules where you have to be “in position” as the ball is served. Shortstop has to be on the left side of 2B as the ball is thrown and can shuffle to his left immediately after it’s released. I don’t like it but I could see it being thrown out there.

disinformation is the new market inefficiency.

I don't believe him. I believe the Cubs will have an aggressive pitch for Harper You should become a twitter personality with that kind of story breaking acuity.

That did it for me. Edit: posts gone, account locked. That was fast. Joe's days are numbered.

Is this actually Maddon's son? This man-child is Billy Madison level crazy rich 40-year-old kid.

I can’t remember how it resolved, but I know at one point there was talk of selling the Cubs and Wrigley separately. Is that how it went down?

Oooof. If only he could throw strikes..

I think that’s what this is about. In the upcoming moves, it gives the cubs the option of walking away(or at least the ability to bluff that they’ll walk away) from a variety of tables both when getting rid of Russell and when seeking someone to replace him.

I'm sure the Phillies will be glad to take on our bad contracts to assist us in signing Harper. If they want to help us collude they will. Otherwise, we should go over the top luxury tax threshold.

I can recommend someone.

I am uncomfortable with the silence. Not particularly on this issue, just in general. Don't worry, I'm seeing someone about it. The fact that I am now longing for pizza talk was my final clue. Any chance anything happens at the winter meetings?

Not a super exciting profile. His best tool is his arm and apparently scouts aren't impressed with his bat. So he's David Ross? Is he also an awful teammate?

This is because Cole convinced them to take analytics seriously. Shaddup Cole!

are we talking about this elsewhere? any interest?

Machado will really be a fan favorite Yeah, not a fit in that town. possible spin, "Yadi is going to teach him to hustle."

Hey, I agree completely FWIW. My honest guess is IF Ricketts has limited payroll, it's because of an uncertain TV deal that'll eventually work out just fine and shouldn't affect money available for Bryce. I am very interested to see if any team jumps past 246 before the next CBA. If not, collusion becomes an extremely legit reality. Because teams are currently making money to where the oow end of the tax SHOULD be sitting at 275. And owners staying under 246 is to help them in the next round of CBA talks. Hopefully we're just laying low. If we’re colluding, Philly needs to help us offload Heyward’s contract and get Bryce. If you collude, everyone needs to collude together, or there’s no beepnefit to colluding, If not, we should take our collusion ball and go home, and sign Bryce anyway.

Spahn, Sein, and some other guy.

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I may have to leave NSB for awhile. I can’t stomach pictures of Imo’s.

You guys out of distracting topics?