Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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A multi-year offer? I might give him a NRI.
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I see him as the fifth starter by default only. Assuming we add at least one starter in the offseason, and Zambrano behaves himself, and everyone stays healthy, then Wells only gets a rotation spot if we don't think Cashner and/or Samardzija are ready to take it. If he gets bumped by one of those guys, then keep him ready in long relief or Iowa (he'd have to give permission to be optioned, I think), but I won't shed a tear if he doesn't get another shot at the rotation because we come up with five better options.
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Oh, well, if he was good in 2010, then that solves everything for 2012. Pen him in, no need to look elsewhere. Arm injuries never linger, recur, or take away from a pitcher's stuff. He was hurt in the first half and mediocre in the second half, and he only got to mediocre in the second half because of some pretty strong BABIP variance in his favor. There's no way he should be handed a rotation spot next year without at least seriously looking elsewhere.
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did Randy Wells die? His arm kinda did. his arm looked fine in august It looked considerably less than fine in April, May, June, July and September.
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did Randy Wells die? His arm kinda did.
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I wouldn't say it's the minimum, since the reports were that the offer wasn't close... the AAV must be pretty low (by his standards). Probably true, but when you are talking about a contract that will take him through age 40, the total value is probably more important than AAV. He's not getting another major contract. Kyle, Would you prefer to give him a 7/210 contract or 9/210? 9/210, of course. But I'd rather not go to 210 at all. But I think he'd rather have 9/230 than 7/200
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I wouldn't say it's the minimum, since the reports were that the offer wasn't close... the AAV must be pretty low (by his standards). Probably true, but when you are talking about a contract that will take him through age 40, the total value is probably more important than AAV. He's not getting another major contract.
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So nine years is pretty much the minimum for Pujols? I wouldn't say no way, but it's getting into icky territory.
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No way Buehrle will ever come here, he like hates the Cubs and stuff. Seriously. Multiple discussions about what? He keeps calling us back to complain about the Cubs more. "My client has advised me to tell you that Cubs fans are just bleacher drunks who don't pay attention to the game."
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Marmol
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Cubs Fan Dan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I'm not convinced that team is better than last year's team. I don't think Cespedes is jumping straight to the majors from the Cuban league. Wright/Fielder is barely an upgrade over what we got out of Ramirez/Pena last season (have I mentioned how much I'm not a fan of Wright? I'm exaggerating a bit, it's probably a 2-win upgrade). It's downgraded significantly at catcher and the bullpen, and I think despite all odds the outfield is actually worse than last year's. The rotation is deeper and better if we don't have the same injury problems. -
Marmol
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Cubs Fan Dan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I just threw up a little in my mouth. Then again, I'm way down on Wright compared to most around here, so I'm probably not the best to judge. -
Marmol
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Cubs Fan Dan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Scouting says he lost a few MPH on his stuff last year. Statistical analysis says he was pretty much the same pitcher he's always been, outside of a return from unsustainable HR rates. I'm very curious to see how much Hoystein will accept in a trade, just because of that dynamic. Might be a very small slice of insight into how they think. -
I'm wondering if Hoystein just sees foreign players as places where they can gain competitive advantage over the market. The unknown quantity of no easily-translatable statistics makes it an area where teams will have different valuations on guys.
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Brenley was just trying to bolster his "i hate Hispaniclazy players" cred to try to position himself for the manager's job.
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Sounds good. Yeah. That's intriguing and I'm certainly happy to hear it. Though I haven't paid much attention to how much Darvish will cost. Nothing can preclude getting Fielder or Pujols though. I really don't see how they can afford Darvis, Cespedes and still have room for both Pujielder and another SPer or three.
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BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
My questions: -
Players/Owners Close to Agreement on Draft Related Issues
Hairyducked Idiot replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Class B free agent compensation on the chopping block for this offseason? http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardball/baseball_new_labor_deal_to_eliminate_RGGAs4SBkXxcos8nyAPt1I -
Okay, you are right, I am way underestimating the likely arbitration awards. That changes the whole equation. Extend away.
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If he's good, his final year of arbitration will easily surpass $12m. Also, Theriot got $2.6m in his first year of arbitration, and that was by losing to the Cubs and taking their number. Castro will start at a higher level than you are assuming and make more every year. It was his first arbitration year, but he wasn't a Super-2 like Castro. Unless I'm misunderstanding the arbitration rules, which is very possible, then his $2.6 million for his 4th season would be compared to the $4 million I'm projecting for Castro in his fourth season.
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I'd say the odds are pretty good that he turns down 8/70. 7/60, I'm not seeing the appeal for the Cubs. If I'm wildly underestimating how much he gets in his arbitration years, then that changes my opinion on signing him to a long-term deal, but I don't think I am. He's a free agent for the 2017 season, meaning he'll be eligible for free agency in late 2016 after the 2016 season. He's got the following years left: Pre-Arb, Arb 1, Arb 2, Arb 3, Arb 4 Pre-arb is going to be a little less than 500k. I'm guessing $2, $4, $8 and $12 for his arbitration years, which would put him at roughly $26.5 million for the five years. Anyone have a different estimate of his arb years?
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:shock: I had no idea Braun was on guaranteed money through 2020. That's insane.
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Castro doesn't have a "contract", Kyle. He is under team control for the next half decade. If he declines tomorrow, there is no guarantee of anything for him going forward. That's a *good* thing for the Cubs. Why should they be in a hurry to negotiate it away? If Castro gives them a big enough discount, sure, but it'd have to be a humongous discount, and I doubt he'd be willing to give that up. Not everyone is as bad at negotiating as Longoria. There's Longoria, which was absurdly team-friendly. There's Carlos Gonzalez's, which I'm not all that impressed with for Colorado.
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I'm suddenly reminded of the "I learned it from you, Dad!" PSA. The closer you get to the end of the contract, the easier it is to assess the values and the less risk there is for both sides, making it easier to come to a mutually beneficial agreement. With Castro, we are half a decade away from the end of his contract. Yes, there are examples of those deals getting done, but they are rare for a reason.
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I'm trying to get you to see your own obtuseness: Signing Castro to a long-term deal will apparently save the Cubs many millions of dollars, straight out of his pocket, but he's going to do it because he doesn't want to take on the risk of decline or injury, but the Cubs shouldn't care about about the risk of decline or injury. It's circular logic. Of course there's a price where it'd make sense for the Cubs, but I don't think it's safe to assume that Castro and his agent will be offering that price. The free agent thing was a crutch to help you understand, because you seem to need it. The Cubs have Castro on a five-year, non-guaranteed contract that's going to be worth somewhere between $20 and $30 million dollars. That's such an absurdly team-friendly deal, they have little incentive to tear it up and replace it with a guaranteed deal.
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I'm not being obtuse. You guys are misestimating one of two factors: Either you think Castro's agent is dumb and doesn't realize how much Castro will be in line for if he continues to develop, or you are considering the risk of him not living up to such a contract to be negligible. If Castro were a free agent this offseason, and you had a choice between 7/$55 guaranteed or 5/$25 non-guaranteed, it'd be absurd not to choose the latter.