Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Baseball America's podcast this week is on the NL Central. Cubs notes: Zych will be top 30 Skeptical of Vogelbach because of his weight, especially his ability to keep it off long-term. "Not the greatest top 10 in the world, not the worst in the division but close. Closer to the worst than the best. A lot of guys in the bottom half of top 10 who do not look like top-10 guys: Vitters, Dolis and Lake all have pretty big holes in their games." Vitters still has upside, but if he wasn't the former No. 3 overall pick, wouldn't be in the top 10. System has a problem with gluts of players in the same positions in the same spot, pushing guys into positions where they don't profile to. Criticizes our development strategies for letting that happen, i.e. Flaherty, LaMahieu and Vitters. "If everything comes together perfectly, Flaherty is a left-handed Mark DeRosa." "LeMahieu is like a dead-ball era third basemen." "Cubs are hoping LeMahieu can be Jeff Cirillo" Only guy in the mass of middle infielders who could be a regular player is Lake, and joked about it being as a reliever. Debated whether he really has an 80 arm or not. Comp Lake to Tim Beckham.
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2 voters for each team, rotates every year. So only NL team reps can vote on NL awards? Are these players or front office types? Media.
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A first-round supplemental pick and $300k in IFA pool space.
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repost on the same page come on kyle I go to the box for two minutes and I feel shame :(
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/did-a-steinbrenner-write-the-new-cba/
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Wait, what? I'm not an expert on this stuff and I may have missed some of the news, but why would players who aren't already our property be training at our complex? Because it gives you the best chance of signing them when they turn 16, and the first look at which ones you want to sign.
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Well, the positive spin I'm going to try to put on this is that rule changes means it will take time for teams to find optimal strategies, and that our management team will probably be among the first to get there.
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Wouldn't Pujols being a US citizen since his youth make him much less likely to be lying about his age? I'm not real familiar with how they fake the birth certificate, but it seems like a 20-something kid coming to the states by himself is much more likely to be able to successfully doctor his certificate than if that kid's entire family came to the states and made this their permanent residence. I may be way off here, though. That sounds about right to me. Honestly, the age thing sounds like something teams are leaking to try to keep the price down.
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2011 Venezuelan Winter League
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
If you want to just tank 2012's 1b production, the Padres have a vaguely interesting unprotected AAA first baseman that Hoyer would be familiar with. I'd give him a thousand chances to start before LaHair. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=clark-002mat -
Yes. That does make me feel better.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/11/21/multiple-teams-have-contacted-the-cubs-about-matt-garza-and-the-cubs-are-listening/ Our buddy Ace credits an unnamed "team source" with the Cubs being slightly more interested in Garza talks than previously assumed. Sort of allowing themselves to be presented the chance to be bowled over.
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So if we ignore the worst part of his season, his season looks better? I will never get tired of disliking these types of arguments. His season is his season. Tacking on his postseason numbers to show how close he got to recovering from the slump makes sense to me. Parsing out his pre-April 11 numbers does not.
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*resists urge to say it ... tries not to say it... has to say it* Did the games before April 11 not count? So it's a coincidence that Pujols' "decline" manifested itself so neatly in a two week window at the outset of the season? Possibly. Do you have an alternative explanation?
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*resists urge to say it ... tries not to say it... has to say it* Did the games before April 11 not count?
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Big Z too lazy to move head out of way of line drive
Hairyducked Idiot replied to SpongeWorthy's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Wait. So now he's not only lazy, selfish, crazy and a bad teammate, but we've added stupid? -
As far as I can tell, USsoccer's participation in this thread is to assume that anyone who doesn't think we'll be terrible without Pujols or Fielder doesn't want Pujols or Fielder.
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So there was less risk in paying Ramirez, lets say $50m over 4 years than paying over $90m for a Japanese import and $40m for a Cuban defector? (yes in retrospect it doesn't sound like Aramis was even interested in coming back) Your logic of Ramirez's asking price being too much seems to me to be immediately contradicted by being so willing to drop giant money on two complete unknowns. It's not about "risk." Nobody said anything about risk. Even if Ramirez is frozen in time and doesn't continue to age, I don't think he's worth $50 million over four years to this organization. It's about opportunity cost. The Cubs don't have the money to replace every position with a high-cost player. Since we can only afford a few high-cost players, I'd rather focus our resources on the biggest holes. Out of SP, 1b and 3b, third is the best position of strength. And I would definitely rather give $90 million to a 25-year-old with Darvish's stuff than a four-year deal to Ramirez.
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Actually, what I'm saying is that platoons intended to match the production of one actually good player never work out the way you'd think they would simply looking at paper and projecting. And I'm questioning what that's based on. Besides, the platoon isn't even the important half of the equation. The point was that Ramirez's asking price was way too much for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, and that 3b the easiest potential hole to fill internally for this organization, after CF.
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There's a huge strawman going on in this thread that says that people have argued that you can take two bench players, put them in a platoon, and add their previous WARs together, and get a projection on what they'll do in a platoon. Nobody said that. What has been argued is that a Baker/Lefty third base platoon can have their production projected, and that projection comes out as the equivalent of a single, 2-WAR starter. And if anything, I think that's understating it.
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I agree, one position you can get away with it as long as you have good offensive players at other positions. You can't count on it for multiple positions and expect to be any good. Also, people keep citing the 2010 Giants as some example of how you can suck offensively and still win, but ignore that we have no one at the Lincecum/Cain level and that even then it was by and large kind of flukish. Garza's the closest, but that pitching staff was completely dominant in a way we can't hope to be. They also had 94 pythagorean wins. We're talking about not being 72-90.
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Re: New GM/Cubs Future News Articles
Hairyducked Idiot replied to ArizonaGM's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If the Red Sox want Colvin, they can just wait until he's waived sometime in the next few months. -
I think you are severely underestimating the value of a good platoon. You can't do it all over the field, but I absolutely believe that you can squeeze decent production out of one or two positions that way. Ideally, you then use your savings to improve the team elsewhere. Runs are runs, whether they are prevented or scored. You don't need a minimum amount of offense to succeed, see the 2010 San Francisco Giants. I'd still rather have Fielder, but I see no reason to think that passing on them means that the 2012 Cubs are dooooooomed.
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Platoons, reclamation projects, and bounceback seasons from Soto and Soriano.
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I'd do $90 million total for Darvish. If it gets to nine figures I start to flinch. I think you are underselling them. Last year's team had a fair bit more talent than its record showed. I don't expect .500 to require any extraordinary effort this offseason.
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Re: Darvish
Hairyducked Idiot replied to SouthSideRyan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
http://calltothepen.com/2011/11/20/yu-darvish-50-50-on-joining-mlb/ Darvish's dad says it is 50/50 that his son will be posted this year.