We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong. 2008-2011, Zambrano was paid $72.5 million for 13.9 fWAR, for a total cost of $5.22 million per WAR. Considering that they wasted parts of two seasons with their own petulance, I'd say he would have easily been a market-value or better deal for those years.