I'll take the under on that. I don't think people are really taking in how bad his 2011 peripherals were and how amazingly fluky his BABIP was. He's a 240/290/390 hitter at this point in his career. And that's assuming his age-35 season doesn't get even worse.
Am I going to have to be the first person to suggest that the prospects we get in this deal could be sent to Boston as compensation for Epstein? It's practically a tradition at this point.
You have to admit he's a fairly decent candidate, with marginal stuff and what has been mixed results so far. It's not like he and Clayton Kershaw have the same odds or anything. Fangraphs places his fastball at 90 MPH and his K/9 is 6.99 for his career. It's not brilliant stuff, but it doesn't seem marginal to me.
Is that WAR likely to remain that decent if his K/9 stays that low and his BB/9 stays that high? I guess what I'm asking is whether there was luck involved in that 1.1 WAR he posted last year and is he a good bet to keep that WAR despite such mediocre numbers? That WAR is based on his FIP. It is adjusted for his peripherals.
Garza has obvious value. Marmol, Byrd, Soto all have non-zero value imo. And Dempster and Zambrano could probably rebuild their value with decent starts to the season.
Why would you think Wood is going to wash out? Other than the fact that anyone can wash out? I guess since I think Randy Wells is going to wash out, Wood-hate is fair game.
What if 2011, where Wood had a 4.06 FIP, is what he'll be doing forward? Then I'll be happy to be slotting him in the back of our rotation for a long time.
Semantics. Their value is that you don't have to waste $5 million on some veteran not-terrible player to do the same work. The value on that 5M not terrible player is having a much better idea what they're bringing. For next year's 68 win extravaganza who gives a [expletive] about being certain what Wood's doing for us. But down the road, yeah I'd like to be confident that this guy is going to matter at all rather than be non-tendered when he reaches Arb 2. I think that's a bad way of looking at it. Properly adjusted AAA stats are just as predictive as MLB stats.
The idea is that you spend around it. You put up with Darwin Barney and Travis Wood so that you can afford Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish. In theory, anyway.
Five years of a cost-controlled, adequate starting pitcher. I really, really like this deal. Edit: Also I replied in this thread without actually seeing that this exact point had been debated for a full page. I feel shame. You've always reminded me of Kent Tekulve in that manner. GR's about to go all Jedi Knight on me.
Teams are getting super-stingy with their prospects. We might have been able to get some higher-ceiling low level guys, but personally I love guys who are ready to contribute with 0 or 1 years of service time. Those are highly valuable assets.
Five years of a cost-controlled, adequate starting pitcher. I really, really like this deal. Edit: Also I replied in this thread without actually seeing that this exact point had been debated for a full page. I feel shame.
It was BS to hide the fact that he was planning on tanking 2012. I wonder if Epstein was really just getting burned out from the pressure in Boston and Ricketts sold him on the job by telling him he didn't have to try for a few years.