Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Excellent.
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If you are going to use a roster-spot on a lefty-masher who plays mediocre defense in the corners, you should be able to do a lot better than an .812 OPS.
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Marmol/Wood/Samardzija/Russell/Corpas/Dolis/Castillo. 7-man pen, seems like plenty of room for Castillo to me, if he's worth it.
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That same MLBTradeInsider guy said Cubs are looking to wrap up Garza deal by Tuesday, Brett over at BleacherNation.com semi-confirms, basically saying he can't be specific but that meshes with what he's heard.
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I can't figure out what they intend to do with it. If you combine last year's payroll with the surplus from the CBA changes, they've got to have something like $40-50 million left on the table. And they are talking about trading Garza, too, which would shed another $8 million (minus his replacement). They could sign Fielder and Cespedes and still have a ton of room left over. Maybe it just goes into the Ricketts' pockets, maybe it's saved for future seasons, I just don't know.
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Cafardo in today's Boston Globe on Garza:
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This is the same guy who said we would "likely" get Corcino in the Marshall trade, so take it for what it's worth: Yes, please. Turner is a polished, young pitching prospect with huge upside. Exactly what we'd want to centerpiece a Garza return.
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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-jed-hoyers-brief-stay-in-san-diego/ THT with an interesting, move-by-move take on Hoyer's years in SD.
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THT has a brief take on the trade: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-conversation-who-won-these-trades/ Some juicy quotes:
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It's how they pick the people who participate in the biting contest.
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If Sappelt is a corner guy only, then I think it's a pretty big longshot that he's more than a marginal starter. I'd be all for some hybrid form of platoon between him and Soriano to try to keep Soriano healthy, but I wouldn't tank what little chance we have to get value out of Soriano on the longshot chance that Sappelt improves with the beat enough to hold down a corner OF spot. If he can play CF well, though, that's a different story entirely. Does Sappelt have to improve to beat out Soriano? I mean, what's a realistic projection for Sappelt? 280/320/400 with good defense? "Marginal starter" is a good tag for that production, but I'm not sure Soriano can do better at this point.
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Try getting a Castillo or Wood jersey to double your odds.
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I talked about it in the trade thread, but the more I look at Sappelt's record, the more I think he can be a league-average starting LFer in 2012 and be a little better than Soriano. Soriano can't really be a backup, so you might as well waive him if you can't convince somehow to take him at a very reduced price (though I'm sure someone would). Sappelt/Byrd/DeJesus (Johnson/Campana) Stewart/Castro/Barney/LaHair (Baker/Dewitt) Soto (Castillo) Garza/Zambrano/Dempster/Wood/Wells Marmol/Samardzija/Wood?/Russell/Cashner/Castillo/Corpas Doing some back-of-the-napking WAR calculations, and I've got that as a 77-win team, albeit with possibly generous WAR projections for Stewart and LaHair.
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I really think it almost has to.
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That's about where I have him. The more I look at Sappelt, the more I'm not quite ready to give up on him as an everyday LFer. Not a "this position is set forever" starter, but not an "oh crap, we can't find somebody better than *him* to start?" starter either. His 2011 ZIPS projection had him at .282 .324 .405 for 2011, and I think that's reasonable with full-time duty in 2012. I could easily see him adding another 10-15 points of batting average (and thus OBP and SLG) to that, too. The NL average LFer last year hit 259/328/421. If he can play plus defense in LF like the scouting reports say he can, the ZIPS projection would make him maybe a 2.5 WAR starter in LF. To be perfectly honest, I'm having trouble making a case that he's not better than Soriano right now. Maybe he's our starting LFer for 2012? I wouldn't be stunned to see
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Yet another statistical take on why I love this trade and Travis Wood. Travis Wood career peripherals 7.0 K/9 2.9 BB/9 0.8 HR/9 (in an extreme HR park) 2011 NL average for starting pitchers 6.9 K/9 3.1 BB/9 1.0 HR/9 Seriously, we just stole a 25-year-old league-average (maybe even a little better) starter with one year of service time.
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He'll make some Cubs Top 10 lists. Quick name all the prospects you can who struck out in less than 7% of their PAs in an 18 y/o season at full-season A ball.
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I hate agreeing almost word for word with Keith Law. I look at the age. I look at the peripherals. I look at the FIP. I look at the possible home HR problems in GABP. I wonder if we didn't just steal a No. 3 pitcher out of this deal.
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How about good left-handed starters? That ranking came before Torreyes showed elite contact skills in regular season A ball as an 18-year-old. He would have been much higher in the coming lists.
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It'd be great if this word didn't become a thing. Outing alert. MR is this guy:
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More reasons I severely love this trade, Travis Wood division: GABP HR park factor, 2011: 1.31 Wrigley Field HR park factor, 2011: 0.99 Travis Wood career HR's/9 1.23 home 0.67 road Obviously we're getting into small sample sizes here by splitting his 208 MLB innings up, but anecdotally it makes sense that he's a FB pitcher who had a lot of trouble in the an extremely HR-friendly park.
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He does have a good contact tool. What was LeMahieu's number? Curious how those two stack up on their contact ability. 11.0% As an 18 year old in the Midwest League, Torreyes just struck out 19 times in 308 PAs As a 20 year old in the Midwest League in 2009, LeMaheiu struck out 22 times in 168 PAs
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More fun with Torreyes stats: K/PA percentage, minor league career Torreyes 5.4% Fuld: 9.5% Castro: 11.0% Vitters: 21.5% The pure contact tool here is insane.
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Jose Altuve as an 18 year old hit .284 .320 .433 in rookie ball. Torreyes as an 18 year old hit .356 .398 .457 in regular A ball, two levels up. Altuve had (and has realized, to some degree) much better power and discipline upside, but Torreyes' hit tool looks to be significantly better.
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Sappelt is better than Campana. Campana has more speed, but Sappelt has a more rounded offensive game, which is more valuable unless your sole goal is speed. Sappelt is one year removed from hitting 53 XBH in a season at AA and AAA. Tony Campana has exactly 53 XBH in his entire professional career spanning more than 400 games. I guess if we stipulate that "More power" means "A whole lot more power" then I can see the comparison.