Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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And going up. Wood isn't going to be making anything close to that in his final two arbitration years.
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Well, if that's what you read and that's how he seems, I'm not sure how I'm supposed to argue with that. His peripherals say he's an above-average major league pitcher. He's 24. He's healthy. That's really all I need to know.
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And I don't disagree, but that spot is at the back end of the rotation - thus my comment that his ceiling is "very limited". As a side note, what is FIP-? I've never seen that until you posted it a couple times in this thread. FIP/league average, indexed to 100. It's just like the "+" in OPS+ and ERA+, except indexed the other way so that lower is better. His FIP in the majors has been above the league average. If we're placing silly numbers on guys, that'd make him a good No. 3.
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Probably enough that a lot of the surplus value in having "cost controlled years" is negated. I'm going to need something more specific. What are you projecting his WAR at for his last two years, what do you think the market price is, and what do you think he'll be getting in arbitration?
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I've been hearing ceiling as well as current ability. He is what he is, would be a good descriptive term to describe him. And I think you may be overestimating one because the Cubs had such issues with that last year and the back end of the rotation cost the Cubs so many games. It's important to have rotation depth, but the 2011 level of awfulness isn't likely to repeat itself because of the injury issues we had. 92 FIP-. Randy Wells is rotation depth. Wood has a spot on almost any rotation.
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I'm confused - who are you talking about with this comment? If it's Wood, as I think, then I agree and that's why I said the higher upside prospect would be much more cost efficient than Wood would be when the Cubs are actually trying to contend again. Wood. I keep hearing about 5 cost controlled years when in reality it's just 5 team controlled years, with a couple cheap ones and the rest will be very expensive. Even if he's mediocre he'll be awarded a lot of money in arbitration. That's why non-tenders exist. Exactly how much do you guys think he's going to be getting in his last two arbitration years that are more than the market for a pitcher like him?
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Pretty much everybody I've seen talking about Wood refer to him as a 4-5 starter and nothing more. That's very limited. They are talking about his current ability. His ceiling is a bit higher. And I think you are underestimating how valuable a "No. 4 starter" is just because the Cubs have had so many terrible ones lately.
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"very limited ceiling"? 24 years old. 92 career FIP-.
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I've come to terms with punting 2012. I'm not giving up on 2013 yet.
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As TT mentioned earlier in the thread, Marshall for Wood doesn't exactly torch 2012. It's pretty close to a wash. Any starting upgrade has big value to the Cubs because of their extremely weak back-of-the-rotation, but they have the relief depth to mitigate the loss. The fact that we let the Reds upgrade shows we aren't trying that hard in 2012, but I don't think we necessarily lose more games because of this move.
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Lesser compensation? We got a 24-year-old starting pitcher with a career FIP- of 94, and we have him for five cost-controlled years. It'd have to be one *heck* of a A-ball prospect to compete with that in value. I'd like a heck of a prospect, yes. Would you like him to be riding a pony as well?
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Lesser compensation? We got a 24-year-old starting pitcher with a career FIP- of 94, and we have him for five cost-controlled years. It'd have to be one *heck* of a A-ball prospect to compete with that in value.
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In the Cubs' current position, I'd rather take the near-ready or ready MLB assets. *Especially* in the rotation. A guy like Wood is perfect for what we need. We've got Garza for two more years, Dempster and Zambrano for one. Wells is a huge question mark at this point. Our upper-minors rotation prospects have all struggled with injuries, ineffectiveness, or both.
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I'm honestly not sure where all these Wells/Wood comparisons are coming from. Using career MLB peripherals, Wood is clearly the better pitcher. K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Wells 5.95 2.86 1.01 Wood 6.99 2.85 0.82 Meanwhile, Wood is a 24-year-old lefty fly-ball pitcher and Wells is a 29-year-old righty groundball pitcher. Both are coming off superficially poor years, but Wells' was actually worse than it looked according to FIP and was combined with injuries and a concerning drop in velocity. Wood's season, according to FIP, was significantly better than it looked and his velocity was up a tiny tick. I'm not entirely clear on why they are being compared, but Wells definitely comes up short in the comparison.
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You mean like he did the year before? If he can consistently K 6.7/9 like he did in 2010, then yeah, I'm a lot less worried about him. But given that it was bookended by seasons of 5.5 and 5.7, I'm not optimistic.
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We need him because we need a good first baseman = good argument We need him because we need power = bad argument. I've heard both argued.
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I'm not sure where you are getting "mediocre stuff" from. 6.99 K/9 90.0 MPH average fastball velocity this year on pitch/fx. 5.94 K/9 88.2 MPH average fastball this year If Randy Wells struck out one more batter per 9 and added 2 MPH to his fastball, then I'd be a lot less worried about him.
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Then I'll simply counter that they are severely underestimating Wood's value.
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The Brewers still look really good to me and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them win 90+ games. Even without 50 games of Ryan Braun? Yes. The upgrades to the left side of their infield were significant, they have some nice prospects they can plug in, and they didn't lose Francisco Rodriguez like expected.
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The Brewers still look really good to me and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them win 90+ games.
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The Marshall trade shaved 2.6 million or so, assuming we aren't sending any cash (which isn't a safe assumption, the Reds are pretty tapped and I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't make paying his salary part of the deal). If no cash was involved that trade, we'd be back down to $97.6 without Pena's deferral and $102.6 with.
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So, updated for the latest moves, we have: Soriano/Byrd/DeJesus (Johnson, Campana) Stewart/Castro/Barney/LaHair (Baker, Dewitt) Soto (Castillo) Garza/Dempster/Zambrano/Wood/Wells Marmol/Wood?/Samardzija/Cashner/Russell/Castillo/one more guy Okay, that offense is a gaping hole of suck, but the pitching has some real upside and could be a strength.
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Even working under Theo Epstein ultimately means you are working under Crane Kenney. Come to think of it, I'm going to assume that Crane Kenney made Theo make Jed sign Reed Johnson.
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I wouldn't care because I consider Wood for Marshall straight up to be fine. But those guys suck.