Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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8/5 Cubs (Germano) @ Dodgers (Blanton) 3 pm WGN
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Andy's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Don't forget Castillo. Other than Cabrera's walks, I'd consider it a very successful day. -
Clean MRI doesn't mean 100% for sure nothing wrong. They can and do miss stuff.
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That actually is pretty shady. Not that I care.
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I'm not convinced either can hold a starting job in 2013, or that the Cubs front office is interested in letting either try. But it'd be awesome if both just came in and played well from day one and got the jobs. The frugality nerd in me is fascinated by the lineup they could put out there next year, with five pre-arb guys (Vitters, either catcher, Jackson, Rizzo, Barney), plus Castro in his first arb year.
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I changed my mind then. Still would not be surprised to see a sub-.600 from Jackson. But today I would rather focus on hopes than expectations.
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do we even have much in the way of youth to promote? I guess Campana, but I think we pretty much know what we have in him. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Don't people here still love Dave Sappelt? That one was just me, I think.
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rubbish, i've been informed by you that both will struggle to break a .600 OPS. lolwut? Jackson sure. When did I rip on Vitters?
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I know it is unlikely, but a scenario where both take starting jobs next year is fascinating.
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Yeah, when I made this thread, I assumed things would be a lot clearer after the deadline. I still think Garza is gone this offseason. I think the Cubs have already made up their mind they don't see him as a long-term piece and intended to trade him this deadline before his brief injury ruined it. I'll assume we get one Delgado-style guy ready to step into the rotation immediately. That leaves us with Samardzija/Wood/Garzatrade/Volstad next year, and really you'd love to bump at least Volstad.
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Our best pitchers sure do give up a lot of runs.
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definitely plays a major part in it. Like I said earliertoo though that didn't get a bite, I honestly think the renovation is playing a very major part in why we're going down this road. But now that we're well down it already, I truly don't see the harm in sucking next year. I think it's very possible. I'm kind of at the point where I'm tired of predicting what they'll do because they know and we don't and that's that. But it seems very possible that they are taking a much, much longer view of this than we thought when they were hired, including taking significant money away from MLB payroll and investing it in the Wrigley renovations, which should create new revenue streams later on.
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Everyone jumping on the Torreyes bandwagon can cram in, but I've got a Barry Bonds-style personal area and no one better mess it up.
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How to get an elite farm system without tanking... hmm, that's a tough one. Could we hire a front office that made its name by building an elite farm system with incredible scouting and late-round picks?
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We are already getting his age-29 season. I think it's optimistic in the extreme to think that he might take an extension that buys out only a couple of his FA years. The extension starts with year 30, and it's going to take him *at least* through 33 and probably longer. His peripherals have definitely not been improving the last few years. Steady? Sure. But he's in the middle of his prime right now.
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That's a very convenient, arbitrary endpoint. xFIP rank since year: 2009: 49th 2010: 39th 2011: 14th 2012: 19th I have some reservations about xFIP (zomg, the one-year correlation is fractionally better than all our previous DIPS ERA substitutes. We've discovered a new, indisputable fact!!!), but I'll go along with it for the purposes of this discussion. It's also worth noting that he's thrown significantly fewer innings than most of the TOR pitchers around him in that 14th/19th area, which diminishes his value.
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I really don't know that. That's my problem. He is tied for 70th in fWAR among starting pitchers. If you want to do a little voodoo to normalize his HR rate, you could probably get him from 1.3 fWAR to 1.9, which would be tied for 49th. And that's in the second-best year of his career. I guess you could define that as "TOR," but that's in the same way that we get excited about the 100th ranked guy being "top-100." And these are supposed to be his prime years. When we are talking about an extension, we are talking about buying his age 30-35 seasons. I'm not really interested in paying top dollar for the post-prime years of a pitcher who was merely above-average in his prime years.
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Right now? Borderline top50 and starting to exit his prime.
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Garza is not a top30 pitcher. Even giving him his xFip.
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The age is *really* important. Garza has been a 3-win pitcher on average in his prime years and he's about to exit them. Darvish is a touch better right now and hasn't turned 26 yet. If Garza were 25 years old, I'd say extend away. This doesn't have to be a philosophical discussion about signing theoretical players and aversion to long-term commitments. I'm simply not sure I want to make a long-term commitment to this specific player. He's not as good as his reputation; the years we'd be buying are his non-prime ones; and although obviously the people making the decision have more exact info, it seems as if he's not interested in anything but top dollar. The perfect may be the enemy of the good, but that's often just a way of rationalizing suboptimal choices.
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Mike Trout is not of this Earth
Hairyducked Idiot replied to sneakypower's topic in General Baseball Talk
Harper. -
Price is certainly something to be considered, but his peripherals are still very good - outside of HR ratios and defense. If you think he'll continue to have the highest HR/FB ratio of his career (over 16% at most recent check) and that he's hopeless defensively even with the Theo regime working with him, then I guess you wouldn't like him a lot. On the flipside, his K/9 has remained in the same area for 3 straight years now, his BB/9 has decreased each of the past 3 years, his GB% is in line with last year's career high, and his xFIP is the second highest of his career and much closer to his 2011 than any previous year. But what does all that add up to? Right now, he's on pace for 2.3 fWAR per 33 starts. Even giving him the xFIP credit, he'd be on pace for about 3.5 fWAR. Given his age at the time an extension would be beginning (30) and the general attrition of a starting pitcher's career, I'm not sure I feel comfortable projecting him as more than a 3-win yearly pitcher during the extension years, and that might be generous. He's going to want a big, fat, long-term contract. I just can't shake the feeling that he's not a pitcher worth one of those contracts in his 30s.
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I'm thinking right now I'm simply not convinced Garza is the kind of pitcher who I want to extend.
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-2-12
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Also note that Torreyes started the year as the youngest player in his league, iirc. -
Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-2-12
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
My guess is too late, but he'll be a trendy sleeper pick in the next tier, then easily top-100 the year after. I have insanely high hopes for him. -
Sickels did one of his "all questions answered" threads. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/1/3212890/trade-deadline-post-mortem-and-all-questions-answered-thread Most interesting things he had to say were about Villanueva. Said that preliminarily, he'd put him in the 4-8 range in our system. Then he said that if you don't include Baez, our 3b prospects would be Vitters/Villnueva/Candelario in that order. On Vogelbach: " the bat is real in my view. we’ll have to see how the BA/OBP hold up against better pitching, but I love his power."